Presentation on theme: "Food System and Adapting to Global Environmental Changes in RTB basin Nepal Ajaya Dixit, Madhukar Upadhya and Kanchan Mani Dixit Nepal Water Conservation."— Presentation transcript:
Food System and Adapting to Global Environmental Changes in RTB basin Nepal Ajaya Dixit, Madhukar Upadhya and Kanchan Mani Dixit Nepal Water Conservation Foundation New Delhi 2009
Study Districts Kapilvastu Rupandehi Nawalparasi RTB Basin in Indo-Ganga Plains (IGP III)
Major crops grown Paddy is the major crops grown by about 98 percent of the households. 60 per cent of land has seasonal irrigation facility Use of technology Farming tools and technology are mostly traditional. Only 10 percent farmers use modern methods of farming. Employment About two third dependent on agriculture Rest on business, service and wage labor Low in industries Monsoon flood is recurrent Increasing trend of out-migration Ponds and wetland are gradually being encroached Characteristics
Food System Activities Producing FoodMostly rice, maize and little wheat Processing and packagingLocal level activity, provided by Nepali and (dominantly) Indian traders. Distributing and retailing food Mostly local traders and truck owners. Food Corporation of Nepal (FoN) does distribute food but inefficient. Consuming foodMostly at household level, festivals. In restaurant in municipalities for local gentry and development agents in transit.
Science Heavy precipitation events, which are very likely to increase frequency will augment flood risk (IPCC, 2007). Downscaling study in RTB basin suggests climate will become more erratic as more heat is pumped into atmosphere (Stapleton, 2009). Implications For NRM Untimely rainfall Short term heavy rainfall Increasing magnitude and frequency of floods in rivers: inundation, bank cutting, sand casting Flash floods Deficit rainfall: Frequent droughts Rise in temperature will affect food production, diseases, debilitate health. Climate Change Impact
Vulnerability Assessment of Food System (Food utilization) Food security determinants GEC stress to which exposed Sensitivity to GEC stress Coping capacityOverall vulnerability Nutritional value protein (pulses, milk) Water shortages, changing rainfall time High Less land will be allocated for pulses when rice production declines. Low Switching to low water demanding pulses is difficult because of weak agriculture services. High Less land is allocated for pulses Social value Paddy and lentil Water shortagesHigh Food other than rice (e.g. maize) is least preferred. Medium Some ability to purchase Increasing Food safety Aflotoxin Increased humidity and fog High Rudimentary storage and handling Low Low because of lack of appropriate storage High Likely to increase
Vulnerability Assessment of Food System (Access) Food security determinants GEC stress to which exposed Sensitivity of determinant to GEC stress Coping capacityOverall vulnerability AffordabilityFloods, drought, and fog (cold waves) High Food prices increase during floods, prolonged drought, and cold waves Low Low income capacity to adapt to floods, and fog period Increasing cost of irrigation High likely to decrease with access to information and communication (eg. weather forecasting) Allocation (intra community) FloodsHigh Disruption of distribution systems Medium Expanding markets Low increasing role of NGOs to force government to make food available Preference (rice) Changing rainfall pattern (time, intensity, duration). High Delay in planting reduces paddy yield Medium Some ability to purchase High Likely to increase
Vulnerability Assessment of Food System (Availability) Food security determinants GEC stress to which exposed Sensitivity of determinant to GEC stress Coping capacityOverall vulnerability Production Rice and maize Floods and excess rain, delayed or deficit monsoon rain High Land and crop are washed away, excess rain reduces maize production Low capacity to adapt to floods, and Increasing cost of irrigation High (but likely to decrease with access to information and communication eg. weather forecasting) Distribution Transport of food. FloodsHigh Damages to roads, bridges and trails. Low Lack of appropriate storage, low income. High Rise in transport cost, increasing cost re- building and maintaining infrastructures. Exchange during monsoon FloodsHigh Wage earning and distribution declines during floods Medium Limited capacity to store food High Likely to increase
Movement of food items in out of RTB Basin Settlements along southern border import food from India also export. Import volume far exceeds export.
State Activities Consuming Availability – Production – Distribution – Exchange Access – Affordability – Allocation – Preference Utilization – Nutritional value – Social values – Food safety Outcomes Producing Distributing retailing/selling Householder/ farmers NGO/ civil society Processing/ packaging Private sectors Actors
Adaptation is more than coping. In a well adapted system people and the environmental and other features they value should do better Baseline survival is not the objective but continued development and improvement in the quality of life is Adaptation is ability to shift strategies And such strategies should not lead to ill effects or no mal-adaptation (socio-economic or environmental) Our approach
Autonomous Adaptation: What populations do in response to the selective pressures and opportunities they face. Planned adaptation: Proactive identification of climate impacts and taking specific, often carefully targeted, steps to respond. Most action are likely to be autonomous Larger systems help adaptation Most government and donor interventions focus on planned adaptation Attribution is essential We need to make distinctions
Institutions, organizations and networks Systems: Physical, Social, and Knowledge: early warning Core Systems: Water Food Energy Ecosystems Governance Social Protection Adapted from GAT (2008) Conceptualizing Adaptation Framework
The vulnerability of distributional system to GECs and on food system outcomes. Cross country comparison of policies (India; Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Nepal) as they relate to food system outcomes. Early warning system combining modern and locally based mechanism. Identify barriers to successful health related planned and autonomous adaptation to GEC stressor. Understanding the role migration and factors driving it has to identify tangible both course of action for vulnerable communities and managing other impacts of GECs. The role of conserving and expanding wetlands to serve as flood and storm buffers as well as food production and source of livelihood for marginalized communities. Research issues identified in RTB Basin
Improved strategies for decision-making in an uncertain future. The strength and impediments for effective horizontal linkages between different agencies, and vertically between local, meso, and national levels to enable flexible policies and practice to enable adaptation. How do link between penetration of basic energy, water, transport, finance, health, communication and other infrastructure, diversification of livelihoods and the ability to shift strategies as condition changes contribute to household food security. Issues Identified for further broad research