Presentation on theme: "Food System and Adapting to Global Environmental Changes in"— Presentation transcript:
1Food System and Adapting to Global Environmental Changes in RTB basin NepalAjaya Dixit, Madhukar Upadhya and Kanchan Mani DixitNepal Water Conservation FoundationNew Delhi 2009
2RTB Basin in Indo-Ganga Plains (IGP III) Study DistrictsKapilvastuRupandehiNawalparasi
3Characteristics Major crops grown Paddy is the major crops grown by about 98 percent of the households.60 per cent of land has seasonal irrigation facilityUse of technologyFarming tools and technology are mostly traditional.Only 10 percent farmers use modern methods of farming.EmploymentAbout two third dependent on agricultureRest on business, service and wage laborLow in industriesMonsoon flood is recurrentIncreasing trend of out-migrationPonds and wetland are gradually being encroached
4Food System Activities Producing FoodMostly rice, maize and little wheatProcessing and packagingLocal level activity, provided by Nepali and (dominantly) Indian traders.Distributing and retailing foodMostly local traders and truck owners. Food Corporation of Nepal (FoN) does distribute food but inefficient.Consuming foodMostly at household level , festivals. In restaurant in municipalities for local gentry and development agents in transit .
5Climate Change Impact Science Implications For NRM Untimely rainfall Heavy precipitation events, which are very likely to increase frequency will augment flood risk (IPCC, 2007).Downscaling study in RTB basin suggests climate will become more erratic as more heat is pumped into atmosphere (Stapleton, 2009).Implications For NRMUntimely rainfallShort term heavy rainfallIncreasing magnitude and frequency of floods in rivers: inundation, bank cutting, sand castingFlash floodsDeficit rainfall: Frequent droughtsRise in temperature will affect food production, diseases, debilitate health.
6Vulnerability Assessment of Food System (Food utilization) Food security determinantsGEC stress to which exposedSensitivity to GEC stressCoping capacityOverall vulnerabilityNutritional valueprotein (pulses, milk)Water shortages, changing rainfall timeHighLess land will be allocated for pulses when rice production declines.LowSwitching to low water demanding pulses is difficult because of weak agriculture services.Less land is allocated for pulsesSocial valuePaddy and lentilWater shortagesFood other than rice (e.g. maize) is least preferred.MediumSome ability to purchaseIncreasingFood safetyAflotoxinIncreased humidity and fogRudimentary storage and handlingLow because of lack of appropriate storageLikely to increase
7Vulnerability Assessment of Food System (Access) Food security determinantsGEC stress to which exposedSensitivity of determinant to GEC stressCoping capacityOverall vulnerabilityAffordabilityFloods, drought, and fog (cold waves)HighFood prices increase during floods, prolonged drought, and cold wavesLowLow incomecapacity to adapt to floods, and fog periodIncreasing cost of irrigationlikely to decrease with access to information and communication (eg. weather forecasting)Allocation(intra community)FloodsDisruption of distribution systemsMediumExpanding marketsincreasing role of NGOs to force government to make food availablePreference(rice)Changing rainfall pattern (time, intensity, duration).Delay in planting reduces paddy yieldSome ability to purchaseLikely to increase
8Vulnerability Assessment of Food System (Availability) Food security determinantsGEC stress to which exposedSensitivity of determinant to GEC stressCoping capacityOverall vulnerabilityProductionRice and maizeFloods and excess rain, delayed or deficit monsoon rainHighLand and crop are washed away, excess rain reduces maize productionLowcapacity to adapt to floods, and Increasing cost of irrigation(but likely to decrease with access to information and communication eg. weather forecasting)DistributionTransport of food.FloodsDamages to roads, bridges and trails.Lack of appropriate storage, low income .Rise in transport cost, increasing cost re-building and maintaining infrastructures.Exchangeduring monsoonWage earning and distribution declines during floodsMediumLimited capacity to store foodLikely to increase
9Movement of food items in out of RTB Basin Settlements along southern border import food from India also export. Import volume far exceeds export.
11Our approachAdaptation is more than coping. In a well adapted system people and the environmental and other features they value should do betterBaseline survival is not the objective but continued development and improvement in the quality of life isAdaptation is ability to shift strategiesAnd such strategies should not lead to ill effects or no mal-adaptation (socio-economic or environmental)
12We need to make distinctions Planned adaptation:Proactive identification of climate impacts and taking specific, often carefully targeted, steps to respond.Most government and donor interventions focus on planned adaptationAttribution is essentialAutonomous Adaptation:What populations “do” in response to the selective pressures and opportunities they face.Most “action” are likely to be autonomousLarger systems help adaptation
13Conceptualizing Adaptation Framework Institutions, organizationsand networksSystems:Physical, Social, and Knowledge: early warningCore Systems:WaterFoodEnergyEcosystemsGovernanceSocial ProtectionAdapted from GAT (2008)
14Research issues identified in RTB Basin The vulnerability of distributional system to GECs and on food system outcomes.Cross country comparison of policies (India; Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Nepal) as they relate to food system outcomes.Early warning system combining modern and locally basedmechanism.Identify barriers to successful health related planned andautonomous adaptation to GEC stressor.Understanding the role migration and factors driving it has to identify tangible both course of action for vulnerable communities and managing other impacts of GECs.The role of conserving and expanding wetlands to serve as flood and storm buffers as well as food production and source of livelihood for marginalized communities.
15Issues Identified for further broad research Improved strategies for decision-making in an uncertain future.The strength and impediments for effective horizontal linkages between different agencies, and vertically between local, meso, and national levels to enable flexible policies and practice to enable adaptation.How do link between penetration of basic energy, water, transport, finance, health, communication and other infrastructure, diversification of livelihoods and the ability to shift strategies as condition changes contribute to household food security.