1. The Population of Texas and The United States: Historical Patterns and Future Trends Affecting Education Steve H. Murdock Department of Sociology Rice University TAMU Commerce Educational Conference July 15, 2010

2. Major Topics of the Presentation __________________________ Change in Rates and Sources of Population Growth Increase in NonAnglo Populations Aging of the Population Implications of Demographic Change for Education, the Labor Force and Economic Development

3. Sources of Data U.S. Census Bureau: www.census.gov See website for definitions for U.S. race categories. Texas State Data Center: txsdc.utsa.edu See website for definitions for Texas race categories.

4. Total Population and Percent Population Change in Texas and the United States, 1850-2009 4 Total Population Percent Change YearTexasU.S. TexasU.S. 1850 212,592 23,191,876--- 1860 604,215 31,443,321184.235.6 1870 818,579 39,818,44935.526.6 1880 1,591,749 50,155,78394.526.0 1890 2,235,527 62,947,71440.425.5 1900 3,048,710 75,994,57536.420.7 1910 3,896,542 91,972,26627.821.0 1920 4,663,228 105,710,62019.714.9 1930 5,824,715 122,775,04624.916.1 1940 6,414,824 131,669,27510.17.2 1950 7,711,194 150,697,36120.214.5 1960 9,579,677 179,323,17524.219.0 1970 11,196,730 203,302,03116.913.4 1980 14,229,191 226,545,80527.111.4 1990 16,986,510 248,709,87319.49.8 2000 20,851,820 281,421,90622.813.2 2009 24,782,302 307,006,55018.89.1 * Source: Derived from the U.S. Census Bureau decennial census and population estimates. Values for years ending in 0 reference April 1 of the year. Value for 2009 is an estimate for July 1.

5. Components of Change, U.S. and Texas, 2000-2009 United States Texas Component Numeric Change Percent of Total Change Numeric Change Percent of Total Change Total Change25,584,644100.03,930,482100.0 Natural Increase15,875,57962.12,124,12454.0 Net Domestic Migration-------848,70221.6 Net International Migration9,709,06537.9957,65624.4 Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census.

6. Percent of United States Population Change Due to Immigration and Natural Increase, 1820 to 2005 Source: Texas State Data Center

7. Immigration into the United States, by Period and Area of Origin of Immigrants, 1820-2005 (numbers in thousands)

8. Ten Largest States in the United States by Population Size in 2009: Population in 2000 and 2009 8 State 2000 Population* 2009 Population* Change 2000-2009 NumericPercent California33,871,64836,961,6643,090,0169.1 Texas20,851,82024,782,3023,930,48218.8 New York18,976,45719,541,453564,9963.0 Florida15,982,37818,537,9692,555,59116.0 Illinois12,419,29312,910,409491,1164.0 Pennsylvania12,281,05412,604,767323,7132.6 Ohio11,353,14011,542,645189,5051.7 Michigan9,938,4449,969,72731,2830.3 Georgia8,186,4539,829,2111,642,75820.1 North Carolina8,049,3139,380,8841,331,57116.5 * Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and estimates for July 1 for 2009. Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau, Population Division

9. Ten Largest States in the United States by Population Size in 2008: 2000 and 2008 State2000 Population* 2008 Population* Change 2000-2008 NumericPercent California33,871,64836,756,6662,885,0188.5 Texas20,851,82024,326,9743,475,15416.7 New York18,976,45719,490,297513,8402.7 Florida15,982,37818,328,3402,345,96214.7 Illinois12,419,29312,901,563482,2703.9 Pennsylvania12,281,05412,448,279167,2251.4 Ohio11,353,14011,485,910132,7701.2 Michigan9,938,44410,003,42264,9780.7 Georgia8,186,4539,685,7441,499,29118.3 North Carolina8,049,3139,222,4141,173,10114.6 * Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and estimates for July 1 for 2008. SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division

10. Ten States in the United States with Largest Numeric Population Increase: 2000-2009 10 State 2000 Population* 2009 Population* Change 2000-2009 NumericPercent Texas20,851,82024,782,3023,930,48218.8 California33,871,64836,961,6643,090,0169.1 Florida15,982,37818,537,9692,555,59116.0 Georgia8,186,4539,829,2111,642,75820.1 Arizona5,130,6326,595,7781,465,14628.6 North Carolina8,049,3139,380,8841,331,57116.5 Virginia7,078,5157,882,590804,07511.4 Washington5,894,1216,664,195770,07413.1 Colorado4,301,2615,024,748723,48716.8 Nevada1,998,2572,643,085644,82832.3 * Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and estimates for July 1 for 2009. Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau, Population Division

11. Ten States in the United States with Largest Percentage Population Increases: 2000-2009 11 State 2000 Population* 2009 Population* Change 2000-2009 NumericPercent Nevada1,998,2572,643,085644,82832.3 Arizona5,130,6326,595,7781,465,14628.6 Utah2,233,1692,784,572551,40324.7 Georgia8,186,4539,829,2111,642,75820.1 Idaho1,293,9531,545,801251,84819.5 Texas20,851,82024,782,3023,930,48218.8 Colorado4,301,2615,024,748723,48716.8 North Carolina8,049,3139,380,8841,331,57116.5 Florida15,982,37818,537,9692,555,59116.0 South Carolina4,012,0124,561,242549,23013.7 * Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and estimates for July 1 for 2009. Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau, Population Division

12. Population Change in Texas Counties, 1990-2000 Source: Texas State Data Center

13. Texas Regional Councils of Governments

14. Councils of Governments in Texas Ranked by Total Population in 2009: Total Population in 2000 and 2009; Numeric and Percent Change, 2000-2009; and Percent of the State Population (2009) and State Population Change Total PopulationPopulation ChangePercent of State Council of Government20002009Numeric% Population 2009 Change, 2000-09 North Central Texas5,309,2706,614,8891,305,61924.626.733.2 Houston-Galveston4,854,4476,005,3341,150,88723.724.229.3 Alamo Area1,807,8772,175,874367,99720.48.89.4 Capital Area1,346,8351,816,818469,98334.97.312.0 Lower Rio Grande Valley924,7801,157,918233,13825.24.75.9 East Texas745,180813,56668,3869.23.31.7 Rio Grande704,318775,92071,60210.23.11.8 Coastal Bend549,014559,06710,0531.82.30.3 Central Texas374,513422,76748,25412.91.71.2 Panhandle402,856415,85613,0003.21.70.3 Permian Basin376,670402,27725,6076.81.60.7 South Plains377,870397,35519,4855.21.60.5 South East Texas385,090378,477-6,613-1.71.5-0.2 Deep East Texas355,861369,67113,8103.91.50.4 Heart of Texas321,533345,30823,7757.41.40.6 South Texas264,177323,14258,96522.31.31.5 West Central Texas324,897317,539-7,358-2.31.3-0.2 Brazos Valley267,087301,42834,34112.91.20.9 Ark-Tex270,475278,5708,0953.01.10.2 Nortex224,362217,270-7,092-3.20.9-0.2 Texoma178,202191,67913,4777.60.80.3 Golden Crescent183,906187,5323,6262.00.80.1 Middle Rio Grande154,385163,4089,0235.80.70.2 Concho Valley148,213150,6372,4241.60.60.1 State of Texas20,851,81824,782,3023,930,48418.8100.0

15. Texas Metropolitan Statistical Areas

16. Metropolitan Statistical Areas in Texas Ranked by Numerical Change Between 2000 and 2009: Total Population in 2000 and 2009 and Numeric (U.S. Rank) and Percent Change, 2000-2009 Total PopulationPopulation Change Metropolitan Statistical Area20002009Numeric(Rank)% Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington5,161,5446,447,6151,286,078(1)24.9 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown4,715,4075,867,4891,152,072(3)24.4 Austin-Round Rock1,249,7631,705,075455,329(12)36.4 San Antonio1,711,7032,072,128360,412(17)21.1 McAllen-Edinburg-Mission569,463741,152171,681(34)30.1 El Paso679,622751,29671,674(71)10.5 Brownsville-Harlingen335,227396,37161,144(84)18.2 Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood330,714379,23148,522(97)14.7 Laredo193,117241,43848,321(99)25.0 Tyler174,706204,66529,959(133)17.1 College Station-Bryan184,885212,26827,383(139)14.8 Lubbock249,700276,65926,962(141)10.8 Amarillo226,522246,47419,952(171)8.8 Waco213,517233,37819,859(174)9.3 Midland116,009132,31616,307(198)14.1 Odessa121,123134,62513,502(212)11.1 Longview194,042206,87412,832(215)6.6 Corpus Christi403,280416,09512,813(217)3.2 Sherman-Denison110,595120,0309,435(240)8.5 Texarkana /AR129,749137,4867,732(257)6.0 San Angelo105,781110,1194,338(286)4.1 Victoria111,663115,3963,728(292)3.3 Abilene160,245160,070-171(318)-0.1 Wichita Falls151,524147,421-4,103(340)-2.7 Beaumont-Port Arthur385,090378,477-6,613(349)-1.7 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

17. Population Change in Texas Counties, 2000-2003 Source: Texas State Data Center

18. Population Change in Texas Counties, 2000-2006 Source: Prepared from U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2006 County Estimates by the Texas State Data Center, The University of Texas at San Antonio

19. Population Change in Texas Counties, 2000-2008

21. Population of the United States by Regions, 1900-2000

22. Percent Change in Population for States and Puerto Rico: 2000-2007

23. Proportion of U.S. Population by Race/Ethnicity in Each Region in 2000

24. Population, Percent Population Change, and Proportion of Population by Race/Ethnicity for Texas and the United States, 1980-1990 Source: Texas State Data Center using 1980 Census Sample Data and 1990 Summary Tape File 1 (STF 1) – 100-Percent Data

25. Population, Percent Change in Population and Proportion of Population by Race/Ethnicity for Texas and the United States, 1990 and 2000 Source: Texas State Data Center

26. Population, Percent Change in Population and Proportion of Total Population by Ethnicity for Texas and the United States, 2000 and 2009 Population Percent Change Proportion of Population Race/Ethnic Category20002009 2000- 200920002009 Texas White Alone, Not Hispanic 10,986,96511,583,1165.452.746.7 Black Alone, Not Hispanic 2,378,4442,812,01518.211.411.3 Other, Not Hispanic 816,7451,239,11551.73.95.0 Hispanic 6,669,6669,148,05637.232.036.9 Total 20,851,820 24,782,30218.8100.0 United States White Alone, Not Hispanic195,575,485199,851,2402.269.565.1 Black Alone, Not Hispanic34,313,00737,681,5449.812.212.3 Other, Not Hispanic*16,227,59621,054,44229.75.86.9 Hispanic35,305,81848,419,32437.112.515.8 Total 281,421,906307,006,5509.1100.0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Population Estimates for the United States, 2009 Vintage

27. Population, Percent Change in Population and Proportion of Total Population by Ethnicity for Bexar County and Texas, 2000 and 2009 Population Percent Change Proportion of Population Race/Ethnic Category20002009 2000- 200920002009 Bexar County White Alone, Not Hispanic500,477516,9323.335.931.3 Black Alone, Not Hispanic96,768111,85915.66.96.8 Other, Not Hispanic38,65360,05755.42.83.6 Hispanic 757,033962,60027.254.358.3 Total 1,392,931 1,651,44818.6100.0 Texas White Alone, Not Hispanic 10,986,96511,583,1165.452.746.7 Black Alone, Not Hispanic 2,378,4442,812,01518.211.411.3 Other, Not Hispanic 816,7451,239,11551.73.95.0 Hispanic 6,669,6669,148,05637.232.036.9 Total 20,851,820 24,782,30218.8100.0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Population Estimates for the United States, 2009 Vintage

28. Population, Percent Change in Population and Proportion of Total Population by Ethnicity for Dallas County and Texas, 2000 and 2009 Population Percent Change Proportion of Population Race/Ethnic Category20002009 2000- 200920002009 Dallas County White Alone, Not Hispanic989,665844,279-14.744.634.4 Black Alone, Not Hispanic448,697492,2389.720.220.1 Other, Not Hispanic117,808147,66525.35.36.0 Hispanic 662,729967,54846.029.939.5 Total 2,218,8992,451,73010.5100.0 Texas White Alone, Not Hispanic 10,986,96511,583,1165.452.746.7 Black Alone, Not Hispanic 2,378,4442,812,01518.211.411.3 Other, Not Hispanic 816,7451,239,11551.73.95.0 Hispanic 6,669,6669,148,05637.232.036.9 Total 20,851,820 24,782,30218.8100.0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Population Estimates for the United States, 2009 Vintage

29. Population, Percent Change in Population and Proportion of Total Population by Ethnicity for Harris County and Texas, 2000 and 2009 Population Percent Change Proportion of Population Race/Ethnic Category20002009 2000- 200920002009 Harris County White Alone, Not Hispanic1,444,1601,438,913-0.442.535.3 Black Alone, Not Hispanic623,637730,01017.118.317.9 Other, Not Hispanic213,030282,64032.76.36.9 Hispanic 1,119,7511,619,42644.632.939.8 Total 3,400,5784,070,98919.7100.0 Texas White Alone, Not Hispanic 10,986,96511,583,1165.452.746.7 Black Alone, Not Hispanic 2,378,4442,812,01518.211.411.3 Other, Not Hispanic 816,7451,239,11551.73.95.0 Hispanic 6,669,6669,148,05637.232.036.9 Total 20,851,820 24,782,30218.8100.0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Population Estimates for the United States, 2009 Vintage

30. Population, Percent Change in Population and Proportion of Population by Ethnicity for Texas and the United States, 2000 and 2008 Population Percent Change Proportion of Population Race/Ethnic Category20002008 2000- 200820002008 Texas White Alone, Not Hispanic 10,933,313 11,525,6235.452.447.4 Black Alone, Not Hispanic 2,364,255 2,748,32316.211.3 Other, Not Hispanic 884,586 1,182,55333.74.24.9 Hispanic 6,669,666 8,870,47533.032.036.5 Total 20,851,820 24,326,97416.7100.0 United States White Alone, Not Hispanic 194,552,774 199,491,4582.569.165.6 Black Alone, Not Hispanic 33,947,837 37,171,7509.512.112.2 Other, Not Hispanic 17,615,477 20,452,90316.16.36.7 Hispanic 35,305,818 46,943,61333.012.515.4 Total 281,421,906 304,059,7248.0100.0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and Population Estimates, 2008

31. Latino Population (1000s) in 1990 and 2000 and Percentage Growth for Top 20 States in 2000

32. Hispanic Origin Population (1000s) in 2000 and 2007 and Percentage Change for Top 20 States in 2007 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 from Summary File 1 Table QT-P9; 2007 from Population Estimates, Table SC-EST2007-04

33. Birth-Death Ratios by Hispanic Origin, United States and Texas, 2000-2006 Source: U.S. data from U.S. Census Bureau. Texas data from Texas State Data Center

34. Median Age in the United States and Texas, 1900-2007

35. Percent Change in Population by Age Group in the United States and Texas, 1990-2000

36. Percent Change in Population by Age Group in the United States and Texas, 2000-2007

37. Percent of Texas Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2000

38. Percent of Texas Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2040*

39. Percent of United States Population By Age Group and Ethnicity, 2000

40. POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS AND SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS

41. Median Household Income in the United States by Age of Householder, 1999 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Money Income in the United States: 1999, Current Population Report P60-209

42. Median Household Income in the United States by Race/Ethnicity, 1989 and 1999 with Percent Change 1989 to 1999

43. Median Household Income In 1999 in Texas by Race/Ethnicity of Householder

44. Educational Attainment in 2000 in Texas for Persons 25+ Years of Age By Race/Ethnicity _____________________________________ Percent

45. Average (Mean) SAT Scores for College Bound Seniors in the United States in 2001 by Selected Characteristics

46. PROJECTIONS

47. Projections of the U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050

48. Numeric Change in the Projected U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050 (in millions)

49. Projections of the U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050

50. Percent Change in the Projected U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050

51. Projected Change in the U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050

52. Projected Age Distribution of the U.S. Population: 2000 to 2050

53. Percent Age Distribution of the U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000

54. Projected Percent Age Distribution of the U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2030

55. Projected Percent Age Distribution of the U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2050

56. Percent Race and Hispanic Origin Distribution of the U.S. Population by Selected Age Groups: 2000

57. Projected Percent Race and Hispanic Origin Distribution of the U.S. Population by Selected Age Groups: 2030

58. Projected Percent Race and Hispanic Origin Distribution of the U.S. Population by Selected Age Groups: 2050

59. Percent Change in the Projected U.S. Population by Age: 2000 to 2050

60. Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040

61. Percent Change for Selected Time Periods for Projected Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration

62. Percent of Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040

63. Texas Counties with 50 Percent or More of Their Total Population That is Anglo in 2000 and Projected for 2040 Under Alternative Projection Scenarios

64. Population by Age Group and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected Population by Age Group and Race/Ethnicity from 2020 to 2040 for Texas Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration

65. Percent of Population by Age Group and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected Percent of Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity from 2020 to 2040 for Texas Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration

66. Percent of Persons 65 Years of Age and Older in Texas Counties, 2000

67. Percent of Persons 65 Years of Age and Older in Texas Counties, 2040* * Assuming rates of migration equal to 2000-2004

68. Percent of Net Change in Texas Population from 2000-2040 Due to Each Race/Ethnicity Group Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration

69. U.S. EDUCATION

70. Projected Elementary and Secondary School, Community College and Public University Enrollment in the United States by Race/Ethnicity, 2000-2050

71. Percent of Projected Elementary and Secondary School, Community College and Public University Enrollment in the United States by Race/Ethnicity, 2000-2050

72. Percent Change for Selected Time Periods for Projected Elementary and Secondary School, Community College and Public University Enrollment in the United States by Race/Ethnicity, 2000-2050

73. Percent of Net Change in Elementary and Secondary School, Community College and Public University Enrollment in the United States Due to Each Race/Ethnicity, 2000-2050

74. TEXAS EDUCATION

75. Enrollment and Change in Enrollment of Economically Disadvantaged and All Students by Ethnicity in Texas Public Schools, 1998-99 and 2008-09 School Years Enrollment10-Year Change Race/Ethnic Category1998-992008-09NumericPercent Economically Disadvantaged White368,387402,05733,6709.1 African American364,434460,70396,26926.4 Other36,58957,85221,26358.1 Hispanic1,146,0711,765,647619,57654.1 Total1,915,4812,686,259770,77840.2 Total White1,746,8961,616,115-130,781-7.5 African American568,757671,871103,11418.1 Other112,068186,48774,41966.4 Hispanic1,526,7132,275,098748,38549.0 Total3,954,4344,749,571795,13720.1 Source: Texas Education Agency, Enrollment in Texas Public Schools, 2008-09 http://ritter.tea.state.tx.us/research/pdfs/enrollment_2008-09.pdf

76. Enrollment, Percent Change in Enrollment and Proportion of Enrollment of Economically Disadvantaged and All Students by Ethnicity in Texas Public Schools, 1998-99 and 2008-09 School Years Enrollment Percent Change Proportion of Enrollment Race/Ethnic Category1998-992008-0910-Year1998-992008-09 Economically Disadvantaged Students White368,387402,0579.119.215.0 African American364,434460,70326.419.017.2 Other36,58957,85258.11.92.2 Hispanic1,146,0711,765,64754.159.865.7 Total1,915,4812,686,25940.2100.0 All Students White1,746,8961,616,115-7.544.234.0 African American568,757671,87118.114.414.1 Other112,068186,48766.42.83.9 Hispanic1,526,7132,275,09849.038.647.9 Total3,954,4344,749,57120.1100.0 Source: Texas Education Agency, Enrollment in Texas Public Schools, 2008-09 http://ritter.tea.state.tx.us/research/pdfs/enrollment_2008-09.pdf

77. District/County/School Year White (%) African American (%)Hispanic (%) Asian/Pacific Islander (%) Native American (%) Total Enrollment Houston ISD (Harris) 2000-200110.032.154.92.9.1208,462 2007-20088.028.460.33.2.1198,769 Dallas ISD (Dallas) 2000-20017.835.954.51.4.4161,548 2007-20084.828.765.31.0.2157,605 Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (Harris) 2000-200158.510.023.47.9.263,497 2007-200838.815.237.18.6.396,546 Northside ISD (Bexar) 2000-200136.76.654.32.2.263,739 2007-200825.47.863.23.3.385,544 Austin ISD (Travis) 2000-200133.715.747.82.5.377,816 2007-200826.412.158.03.3.282,181 Fort Worth ISD ( Tarrant) 2000-200121.430.945.42.1.279,661 2007-200814.325.658.21.6.378,732 Fort Bend ISD (Fort Bend) 2000-200137.828.018.116.0.153,999 2007-200824.431.823.020.6.267,780 Arlington ISD (Tarrant) 2000-200147.321.324.06.8.658,866 2007-200831.423.937.27.1.462,560 North East ISD (Bexar) 2000-200149.19.438.82.5.250,875 2007-200839.29.447.43.7.361,910 El Paso ISD (El Paso) 2000-200115.24.878.51.2.362,325 2007-200812.24.881.31.4.361,839 Total Public School Students by Race/Ethnicity in the 10 Largest* School Districts in Texas, 2000-2001 and 2007-2008 *Largest enrollment based on 2007-2008 school year Source: Data compiled by the Texas State Data Center from Texas Education Agency, Academic Excellence Indicator System (AEIS) District Profiles

78. Texas Higher Education Enrollment in Public Universities, Public 2-year Colleges and Health-related Institutions by Race/Ethnicity, 2000 and 2008 Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity Public Univ Public 2-year Colleges Health-related Institutions 2000 Enrollment White (%)58.452.861.3 African American (%)9.811.04.9 Hispanic (%)19.628.912.6 Asian (%)5.73.914.6 American Indian (%).5 International (%)5.32.44.8 Unknown (%).7.51.3 Total 2000 Enrollment414,626447,99813,806 2008 Enrollment White (%)50.445.251.3 African American (%)11.611.86.6 Hispanic (%)24.334.113.8 Asian (%)6.64.214.5 American Indian (%).5.6 International (%)5.72.59.7 Unknown (%).91.73.5 Total 2008 Enrollment509,136617,50720,421 Source: Data compiled by the Texas State Data Center using data from the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board (THECB)

79. Public Elementary and Secondary Public Community College, and Public University Enrollment in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections to 2040 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario)

80. Percent of Public Elementary and Secondary, Public Community College and Public University Enrollment in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections to 2040 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario)

81. Percent Change in Projected Public Elementary and Secondary, Public Community College and Public University Enrollment in Texas Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario)

82. Number and Percent of Net Change in Projected Public Elementary and Secondary, Public Community College and Public University Enrollment in Texas Due To Each Race/Ethnicity Group, Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario)

83. Future Demands for Specific Programs

84. Early Childhood

85. Early Childhood Age Population and Total Population in Texas by Age Group and Race/Ethnicity and Percent of Total Group Population for Selected Time Periods Race/ Ethnicity Number Percent Age < 3 Ages 3 to 5 Ages 0 to 5 Total Population Age < 3 Ages 3 to 5 Ages 0 to 5 Total Population Census 2000 Anglo389,504399,426788,93011,074,71639.841.140.553.1 Black121,690124,058245,7482,421,65312.412.812.611.6 Hispanic435,403416,493851,8966,669,66644.542.943.732.0 Other30,84130,88261,723685,7853.2 3.3 Total977,438970,8591,948,29720,851,820100.0 Estimated for 2008 Anglo401,474406,601808,07511,342,86434.236.335.246.6 Black131,036128,743259,7792,823,46011.211.511.311.6 Hispanic595,953543,9011,139,8549,116,76850.848.549.737.5 Other45,16441,99787,1611,043,8823.83.73.84.3 Total1,173,6271,121,2422,294,86924,326,974100.0 Source: Texas State Data Center

86. Change in Early Childhood Age Population and Total Population in Texas by Age Group and Race/Ethnicity for 2000-2008 Race/ Ethnicity Numeric Change Percent Change Age < 3 Age 3 to 5 Ages 0 to 5 Total Population Age < 3 Ages 3 to 5 Ages 0 to 5 Total Population Anglo11,9707,17519,145268,1483.11.82.4 Black9,3464,68514,031401,8077.73.85.716.6 Hispanic160,550127,408287,9582,447,10236.930.633.836.7 Other14,32311,11525,438358,09746.436.041.252.2 Total196,189150,383346,5723,475,15420.115.517.816.7 Source: Texas State Data Center

87. Early Childhood Age Population by Race/Ethnicity for Texas and Selected Counties in Texas in 2000 and Estimated for 2008 Source: Texas State Data Center Race/ Ethnicity TexasBexarDallasHarrisHidalgoTarrantTravisWebb Census 2000 Anglo 788,930 33,890 65,514 103,723 2,849 70,019 29,538 934 Black 245,748 9,722 47,177 64,599 142 20,882 7,996 29 Hispanic 851,896 86,302 94,964 151,933 66,288 40,685 28,687 23,653 Other 61,723 2,341 9,507 16,460 401 6,308 3,342 107 Total Population 1,948,297 132,255 217,162 336,715 69,680 137,894 69,563 24,723 Estimated for 2008 Anglo 808,075 35,717 55,191 91,668 4,171 70,959 31,820 502 Black 259,779 10,537 47,086 70,506 79 25,121 8,507 6 Hispanic 1,139,854 104,919 129,132 219,130 87,587 64,057 43,148 33,577 Other 87,161 3,773 12,848 23,303 811 9,345 5,281 178 Total Population 2,294,869 154,946 244,257 404,607 92,648 169,482 88,756 34,263

88. Percent of an Area’s Early Childhood Age Population by Race/Ethnicity for Texas and Selected Counties in Texas in 2000 and Estimated for 2008 Source: Texas State Data Center Race/ Ethnicity TexasBexarDallasHarrisHidalgoTarrantTravisWebb Census 2000 % Anglo 40.5 25.6 30.2 30.8 4.1 50.8 42.5 3.8 % Black 12.6 7.4 21.7 19.2 0.2 15.1 11.5 0.1 % Hispanic 43.7 65.3 43.7 45.1 95.1 29.5 41.2 95.7 % Other 3.2 1.8 4.4 4.9 0.6 4.6 4.8 0.4 Estimated for 2008 % Anglo 35.2 23.1 22.6 22.7 4.5 41.9 35.9 1.5 % Black 11.3 6.8 19.3 17.4 0.1 14.8 9.6 - % Hispanic 49.7 67.7 52.9 54.2 94.5 37.8 48.6 98.0 % Other 3.8 2.4 5.3 5.8 0.9 5.5 6.0 0.5

89. County Proportions of the Statewide Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for Selected Counties in Texas in 2000 and Estimated for 2008 Source: Texas State Data Center Race/ Ethnicity TexasBexarDallasHarrisHidalgoTarrantTravisWebb Census 2000 Anglo 100.0 4.6 9.0 13.2 0.5 8.2 4.2 0.1 Black 100.0 4.1 18.8 26.0 0.1 7.8 3.1 - Hispanic 100.0 11.4 9.9 16.8 7.5 4.3 3.4 2.7 Other 100.0 4.3 15.1 28.3 0.6 9.4 6.1 0.1 Total 100.0 6.7 10.6 16.3 2.7 6.9 3.9 0.9 Estimated for 2008 Anglo 100.0 4.4 7.1 11.3 0.5 8.0 4.3 0.1 Black 100.0 4.5 17.2 25.9 0.1 8.6 3.2 - Hispanic 100.0 10.3 10.5 18.3 7.3 5.3 3.8 2.5 Other 100.0 4.9 13.6 27.3 0.6 10.5 5.9 0.2 Total 100.0 6.7 9.8 16.3 3.0 7.2 4.1 1.0

90. Early Childhood

91. Early Childhood Age Population and Total Population in Texas by Age Group and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected to 2040 Under Net Migration Rates Equal to 2000-2007 Age Group AngloBlackHispanicOtherTotal Census 2000 < 3389,504121,690435,40330,841977,438 3-5399,426124,058416,49330,882970,859 0-5788,930245,748851,89661,7231,948,297 All Ages11,074,7162,421,6536,669,666685,78520,851,820 Projected 2010 < 3398,192132,968626,61146,6111,204,382 3-5407,608131,264585,61844,3871,168,877 0-5805,800264,2321,212,22990,9982,373,259 All Ages11,441,5952,925,7519,847,8521,158,74925,373,947 Projected 2020 < 3360,408132,883729,06355,6001,277,954 3-5374,324138,084702,44752,4431,267,298 0-5734,732270,9671,431,510108,0432,545,252 All Ages11,612,1223,447,89613,940,0311,858,40030,858,449 Projected 2030 < 3325,434130,726890,31270,9211,417,393 3-5335,061132,929837,04466,1011,371,135 0-5660,495263,6551,727,356137,0222,788,528 All Ages11,525,2693,922,90018,973,4242,863,89337,285,486 Projected 2040 < 3310,388135,8711,059,82794,5981,600,684 3-5316,100137,1901,013,90187,1001,554,291 0-5626,488273,0612,073,728181,6983,154,975 All Ages11,196,4274,341,62725,090,7454,243,23944,872,038 Source: Texas State Data Center

92. Percent of Early Childhood Age Population and Total Population in Texas by Age Group and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected to 2040 Under Net Migration Rates Equal to 2000-2007 Age Group AngloBlackHispanicOtherTotal Census 2000 < 339.812.444.53.2100.0 3-541.112.842.93.2100.0 0-540.512.643.73.2100.0 All Ages53.111.632.03.3100.0 Projected 2010 < 333.111.052.03.9100.0 3-534.911.250.13.8100.0 0-534.011.151.13.8100.0 All Ages45.111.538.84.6100.0 Projected 2020 < 328.210.457.04.4100.0 3-529.510.955.44.1100.0 0-528.910.656.24.2100.0 All Ages37.611.245.26.0100.0 Projected 2030 < 323.09.262.85.0100.0 3-524.49.761.04.8100.0 0-523.79.561.94.9100.0 All Ages30.910.550.97.7100.0 Projected 2040 < 319.48.566.25.9100.0 3-520.38.865.25.6100.0 0-519.98.765.75.8100.0 All Ages25.09.755.99.5100.0 Source: Texas State Data Center

93. Numerical Change in Early Childhood Age Population and Total Population in Texas by Age Group and Race/Ethnicity for Selected Time Periods Under Net Migration Rates Equal to 2000-2007 Age Group AngloBlackHispanicOtherTotal Change 2000-2010 < 38,68811,278191,20815,770226,944 3-58,1827,206169,12513,505198,018 0 - 516,87018,484360,33329,275424,962 All Ages366,879504,0983,178,186472,9644,522,127 Change 2010-2020 < 3-37,784-85102,4528,98973,572 3-5-33,2846,820116,8298,05698,421 0 - 5-71,0686,735219,28117,045171,993 All Ages170,527522,1454,092,179699,6515,484,502 Change 2020-2030 < 3-34,974-2,157161,24915,321139,439 3-5-39,263-5,155134,59713,658103,837 0 - 5-74,237-7,312295,84628,979243,276 All Ages-86,853475,0045,033,3931,005,4936,427,037 Change 2030-2040 < 3-15,0465,145169,51523,677183,291 3-5-18,9614,261176,85720,999183,156 0 - 5-34,0079,406346,37244,676366,447 All Ages-328,842418,7276,117,3211,379,3467,586,552 Change 2000-2040 < 3-79,11614,181624,42463,757623,246 3-5-83,32613,132597,40856,218583,432 0 - 5-162,44227,3131,221,832119,9751,206,678 All Ages121,7111,919,97418,421,0793,557,45424,020,218 Source: Texas State Data Center

94. Percent Change in Early Childhood Age Population and Total Population in Texas by Age Group and Race/Ethnicity for Selected Time Periods Under Net Migration Rates Equal to 2000-2007 Age Group AngloBlackHispanicOtherTotal Change 2000-2010 < 32.29.343.951.123.2 3-52.05.840.643.720.4 0 - 52.17.542.347.421.8 All Ages3.320.847.769.021.7 Change 2010-2020 < 3-9.5-0.116.419.36.1 3-5-8.25.219.918.18.4 0 - 5-8.82.518.118.77.2 All Ages1.517.841.660.421.6 Change 2020-2030 < 3-9.7-1.622.127.610.9 3-5-10.5-3.719.226.08.2 0 - 5-10.1-2.720.726.89.6 All Ages-0.713.836.154.120.8 Change 2030-2040 < 3-4.63.919.033.412.9 3-5-5.73.221.131.813.4 0 - 5-5.13.620.132.613.1 All Ages-2.910.732.248.220.3 Change 2000-2040 < 3-20.311.7143.4206.763.8 3-5-20.910.6143.4182.060.1 0 - 5-20.611.1143.4194.461.9 All Ages1.179.3276.2518.7115.2 Source: Texas State Data Center

95. Households and Households in Owner Occupied Housing in Texas and the United States by Presence of Own Children in 2000 by Race/Ethnicity of Householder HouseholdsProportion of Households All Households Owner Occupied All Households Owner Occupied Race/Ethnic Category All With Own Children < 18All With Own Children < 18 Texas White, Not Hispanic4,487,5743,175,7711,014,99460.767.359.3 Black, Not Hispanic844,696391,863136,54311.48.38.0 Other, Not Hispanic273,943146,73125,5603.73.11.5 Hispanic1,787,1411,002,929533,59424.221.331.2 Total7,393,3544,717,2941,710,691100.0 United States White, Not Hispanic79,086,56657,296,11817,865,78975.082.177.0 Black, Not Hispanic12,136,3545,625,1471,938,86011.58.18.4 Other, Not Hispanic5,077,4172,704,6351,190,3734.83.95.1 Hispanic9,179,7644,190,6132,194,2888.76.09.5 Total105,480,10169,816,51323,189,310100.0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000, SF-4

96. Households by Race/Ethnicity of the Householder and Owner Occupancy Status and Presence of Own Children in Texas and the United States in 2000 – Percent of Total Race/Ethnic Group Households All Households Owner Occupied Race/Ethnic Category Households with ChildrenAll With Own Children < 18 Texas White, Not Hispanic4,487,57430.170.822.6 Black, Not Hispanic844,69638.446.416.2 Other, Not Hispanic273,94343.053.69.3 Hispanic1,787,14153.256.129.9 Total7,393,35437.163.823.1 United States White, Not Hispanic79,086,56629.572.422.6 Black, Not Hispanic12,136,35437.246.316.0 Other, Not Hispanic5,077,41742.553.323.4 Hispanic9,179,76452.545.723.9 Total105,480,10133.066.222.0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000, SF-4

97. All Households (Percent of All Households) Owner Occupied (Percent of Owner Occupied Households) CountyTotalWhiteBlackHispanicOtherTotalWhiteBlackHispanicOther Bexar488,94243.47.246.43.0299,17147.75.744.22.5 Brazoria81,95472.96.717.23.260,68275.95.915.03.2 Cameron97,26722.80.375.91.065,85426.50.372.40.8 Collin181,97080.54.77.07.9124,93584.53.25.07.3 Dallas807,62154.320.320.15.3424,78865.215.614.84.3 Denton158,90380.35.78.65.3102,46985.23.76.44.7 Ector43,84660.34.533.31.930,09862.73.432.41.5 Ellis37,02077.68.112.81.528,22682.16.210.31.3 Ft. Bend110,91552.719.416.511.489,62855.018.614.312.1 Galveston94,78268.214.913.63.462,79075.610.311.32.8 Guadalupe30,90067.15.025.92.023,79970.94.322.82.0 Hale11,97554.64.739.11.67,76561.83.333.61.3 Harris 1,205,51650.718.724.26.3667,12960.914.119.25.8 Hays33,41072.22.423.02.421,68074.61.821.91.7 Hidalgo156,82417.30.381.31.1114,57019.40.279.50.9 Johnson43,63687.61.88.62.034,42090.21.36.91.6 Lubbock92,51669.66.821.32.354,76375.05.018.51.5 McLennan78,85970.314.813.01.947,46377.510.111.31.1 Montgomery103,29686.13.28.42.480,75088.32.67.02.1 Nueces110,36545.74.247.92.267,68749.93.145.12.0 Smith65,69273.418.36.81.645,77778.614.55.61.3 Tarrant533,86469.012.513.84.7324,75476.19.210.83.9 Taylor47,27478.06.113.42.529,09182.23.911.82.0 Travis320,76665.38.420.36.0165,12372.86.916.14.2 Wichita48,44179.38.38.73.730,19284.05.57.53.0 Williamson86,76678.94.812.93.464,39182.23.910.73.2 Texas7,393,35460.711.224.23.94,717,29467.38.221.33.2 United States105,480,10175.011.28.75.169,816,51382.17.96.04.1 Households and Owner Occupied Households by Race/Ethnicity of the Householder for Texas, the United States, and Selected Texas Counties in 2000 Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000, SF-4

98. Total Households With Own Children < 18 (Percent of Households with Children) Owner Occupied With Own Children < 18 (Percent of Owner Occupied Households with Children) CountyTotalWhiteBlackHispanicOtherTotalWhiteBlackHispanicOther Bexar180,10633.27.356.62.9108,11039.74.952.62.8 Brazoria33,77363.77.325.33.724,73067.06.222.93.9 Cameron44,9179.60.489.20.827,36111.30.287.80.7 Collin74,37875.75.09.39.959,23879.93.86.79.6 Dallas285,85538.122.833.25.9152,58951.416.226.55.8 Denton62,46475.96.411.75.946,61380.84.49.15.7 Ector17,22244.43.949.81.911,96146.02.549.71.8 Ellis15,72072.27.618.61.611,56878.14.915.91.1 Ft. Bend55,70145.820.519.514.146,12748.819.116.815.3 Galveston32,24261.815.119.43.721,10172.38.416.13.2 Guadalupe11,80657.45.634.92.18,75562.54.330.72.5 Hale4,79336.73.856.82.72,80141.42.053.53.1 Harris196,64621.527.345.06.2262,25451.411.829.57.2 Hays11,48464.72.730.52.18,77869.71.926.81.6 Hidalgo78,5306.20.292.70.855,2726.50.292.60.8 Johnson17,72482.91.513.32.313,54585.51.011.51.9 Lubbock29,46056.58.932.71.918,07366.44.627.31.8 McLennan26,04860.616.621.01.815,43471.28.819.01.1 Montgomery42,08481.23.612.52.733,55683.92.510.92.6 Nueces40,01235.34.258.02.522,95442.02.353.42.3 Smith22,04664.720.213.31.814,87771.514.212.71.6 Tarrant198,25759.413.721.25.6126,35968.88.817.25.2 Taylor16,50568.57.920.33.39,59574.53.718.63.2 Travis94,66652.310.331.55.959,43264.46.623.45.6 Wichita16,33773.39.213.34.19,52779.84.612.23.4 Williamson38,16373.25.517.24.029,66677.34.514.24.0 Texas2,742,48649.211.834.74.31,756,93057.87.630.44.2 United States34,819,26067.013.013.86.223,189,31077.08.19.55.4 Households with Own Children < 18 and Owner Occupied Households with Own Children < 18 by Race/Ethnicity of the Householder for Texas, the United States, and Selected Texas Counties in 2000 Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000, SF-4

99. Total Households Owner Occupied (Percent of Total Households) Owner Occupied With Own Children < 18 (Percent of Total Households) CountyTotalWhiteBlackHispanicOtherTotalWhiteBlackHispanicOther Bexar 488,942 61.229.23.527.01.522.18.81.111.60.6 Brazoria 81,954 74.056.24.411.12.430.220.21.96.91.2 Cameron 97,267 67.717.90.249.00.628.13.20.124.70.2 Collin 181,970 68.758.02.23.45.032.626.01.22.23.1 Dallas 807,621 52.634.38.27.82.318.99.73.15.01.1 Denton 158,903 64.554.92.44.13.129.323.71.32.71.7 Ector 43,846 68.643.12.322.21.127.312.60.713.50.5 Ellis 37,020 76.262.64.77.91.031.224.41.55.00.4 Ft. Bend 110,915 80.844.515.011.69.741.620.37.97.06.3 Galveston 94,782 66.250.16.87.51.922.316.11.93.60.7 Guadalupe 30,900 77.054.63.317.61.628.317.71.28.70.7 Hale 11,975 64.840.12.121.80.923.49.70.512.50.7 Harris1,205,51655.333.77.810.63.221.811.22.66.41.6 Hays 33,410 64.948.41.214.21.126.318.30.57.00.4 Hidalgo 156,824 73.114.20.158.10.735.22.30.132.60.3 Johnson 43,636 78.971.11.05.51.331.026.60.33.60.6 Lubbock 92,516 59.244.42.911.00.919.513.00.95.30.3 McLennan 78,859 60.246.76.16.80.719.613.91.73.70.2 Montgomery 103,296 78.269.02.05.51.732.527.30.83.60.9 Nueces 110,365 61.330.61.927.71.220.88.70.511.10.5 Smith 65,692 69.754.810.13.90.922.616.23.22.90.4 Tarrant 533,864 60.846.35.66.62.323.716.32.14.11.2 Taylor 47,274 61.550.62.47.31.320.315.10.73.80.6 Travis 320,766 51.537.53.58.32.218.511.91.24.31.0 Wichita 48,441 62.352.33.44.71.919.715.70.92.40.7 Williamson 86,766 74.261.02.97.92.434.226.41.54.91.4 Texas 7,393,354 63.843.05.213.62.123.813.71.87.21.0 United States 105,480,101 66.254.35.24.02.722.016.91.82.11.2 Percent of All Households by Owner Occupied Status and Presence of Own Children < 18 by Race/Ethnicity of the Householder for Texas, the United States, and Selected Texas Counties in 2000

100. Average Household Income in Texas, 2000-2040* (in 2000 Dollars)

101. Projected Percent of Households in Poverty by Family Type in Texas, 2000 and 2040

102. Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040

103. Average Annual Household Income in Texas and the United States by Educational Attainment of Householder in 2000*

104. Percent of Persons 25 Years of Age or Older by Level of Educational Attainment and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected to 2040* Assuming 1990-2000 Trends in Educational Attainment Rates

105. Aggregate Income and Consumer Expenditures for Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions for 2040* *Source: Texas State Data Center. Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario $251 $621 $765 $938 $210 $528 $629 $752 2000 Base Values 2040 Assuming 2000 Attainment Differentials 2040 Assuming 1990-2000 Trends in Differentials 2040 Assuming Anglo Trends Apply to all Groups $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 Billions Aggregate IncomeConsumer Expenditures

106. The mark of a truly educated man is to be moved deeply by statistics. George Bernard Shaw

107. Steve Murdock Phone: 210-867-4385 E-mail: shm3@rice.edu