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by Steve H. Murdock Department of Rural Sociology

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Presentation on theme: "by Steve H. Murdock Department of Rural Sociology"— Presentation transcript:

1 Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century
by Steve H. Murdock Department of Rural Sociology Texas Agricultural Experiment Station Texas A&M University System

2 Major Demographic Trends Affecting the Future
Change in Rates and Sources of Population Growth Increase in the Non-Anglo Population Aging of the Population

3 Total Population Change

4 Total Population and Percent Population Change in Texas and the United States, 1850-2002

5 Ten Fastest Growing States in Numerical Terms in the United States, 1990-2000

6 Ten Fastest Growing States in Percentage Terms in the United States, 1990-2000

7 Ten Largest States in United States by Population Size in 2000 Ranked by Population Size in 2000

8 Racial/Ethnic Change in Texas

9 Texas Rank Among States on Selected Characteristics of Race/Ethnicity Groups

10 Texas Rank Among States on Selected Characteristics of Race/Ethnicity Groups

11 Anglo Population For States in the United States in 1990 and 2000 Ranked by Total Population Size in 2000

12 Texas Rank Among States on Selected Characteristics of Race/Ethnicity Groups

13 Numerical Change in Population by Race/Ethnicity in Texas for 1980-1990 and 1990-2000

14 Percent Change in Population by Race/Ethnicity for 1980-1990 and 1990-2000 in Texas

15 Proportion of Net Population Change Attributable to Each Race/Ethnicity Group in Texas for and

16 Major Changes in Population Composition (Characteristics)
Age

17 Median Age in the United States and Texas, 1900-2000

18 Percent of Texas Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2000

19 Percent of Texas Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2040*

20 POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS AND SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS

21 Median Household Income in 1999 in Texas by Age of Householder
Thousands

22 Median Household Income In 1999 in Texas by Race/Ethnicity of Householder

23 States Ranked by Median Household Income in 1999

24 States Ranked by Per Capita Income in 1999

25 Educational Attainment in 2000 in Texas for Persons 25+ Years of Age By Race/Ethnicity
Percent

26 States Ranked by Percent High School Graduates + in the Population 25 Years of Age or Older, 2000

27 States Ranked by Percent College Graduates + in the Population 25 Years of Age or Older, 2000

28 PROJECTIONS

29 Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040

30 Percent Change for Selected Time Periods for Projected Population in Texas by Racial/Ethnic Status Under Alternative Assumptions of Migration Scenarios

31 Percent of Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Percent of the Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040

32 Projected Proportion of Population by Race/Ethnicity in Texas, 2000-2040*
* Using U.S. Census count for 2000 and Texas State Data Center 1.0 population projection scenario for

33 Percent of the Projections of the Population by Race/Ethnicity and Age Groups in Texas from Under Alternative Migration Scenarios

34 Projected Percent of Net Change Attributable to Each Race/Ethnicity Group in Texas for 2000-2040*
* Using U.S. Census count for 2000 and Texas State Data Center 1.0 population projection scenario for 2040.

35 The Texas Challenge in the Twenty-First Century: Implications of Population Change for the Future of Texas by Steve H. Murdock The Center for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research and Education Department of Rural Sociology Texas A&M University System The Center for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research and Education

36 Ethnic Diversity of the Population, Householders, and Labor Force in Texas, 2000 and 2040*
Proj_pop-hhdr-lf_6pie.pr4

37 Ethnic Diversity of the Population Enrolled in Elementary and Secondary Schools and Colleges in Texas, 2000 and 2040* Proj_Ed-Enrol_4pie.pr4

38 Ethnic Diversity of Household Income and Consumer Expenditures in Texas, 2000 and 2040*
Proj_Inc-Exp_4pie.pr4

39 State Tax Revenues in Texas Proportioned by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections to 2040* Assuming 2000 Decile Tax Rates *Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

40 Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040

41 Average Household Income in Texas, 2000-2040* (in 2000 Dollars)

42 Projected Percent of Households in Poverty by Family Type in Texas, 2000 and 2040

43 EDUCATION

44 Percent Change in Enrollment in Texas Public Elementary and Secondary Schools, and Total Public Colleges and Universities by Race/Ethnicity,

45 Percent of Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas Who Are High School Graduates and Higher or College Graduates and Higher by Race/Ethnicity, and Percent Change,

46 Public Community College and University Enrollment Rates (Per 100 Persons Ages 18 to 35) in Texas by Race/Ethnicity, 1990 and 2000

47 Enrollment in Public Community Colleges and Public Universities in Texas, 2000-2040*
Bev Table 7.4

48 Public Elementary and Secondary, Public Community College, and Public University Enrollment in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections to 2040 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to (1.0 Scenario)

49 Percent Change in Projected Public Elementary and Secondary, Public Community College and Public University Enrollment in Texas Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to (1.0 Scenario)

50 Projected Percent of Public Community College Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections for 2040* Bev tab b

51 Projected Percent of Public University Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections for 2040* Bev tab

52 Number and Percent of Net Change in Projected Public Elementary and Secondary, Public Community College and Public University Enrollment in Texas Due To Each Race/Ethnicity Group, Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to (1.0 Scenario)

53 Average Annual Household Income in the United States
by Educational Attainment* in 2000 *From March 2001 Current Population Survey

54 Lifetime Household Income in the United States
by Educational Attainment* in 2000 *From March 2001 Current Population Survey

55 Working Lifetime (40 Years) Consumer
Expenditures by Educational Attainment (in 2000 Dollars)

56 Working Lifetime (40 Years) Total State and Local Taxes for
Households by Educational Attainment of Householder (in 2000 Dollars)

57

58 Percent of Persons 25 Years of Age or Older by Level of Educational Attainment and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected to 2040* Assuming Trends in Educational Attainment Rates

59 Aggregate Income and Consumer Expenditures for Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions for 2040*

60 Percent Change in Projected Aggregate Income and Consumer Expenditures for Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas Under Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions, 2000 to 2040*

61 Prison Population and Prison Costs for Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions for 2040*

62 Medicaid Participants and Medicaid Costs for Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions for 2040*

63 TANF Participants and TANF Costs for Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions for 2040*

64 Food Stamp Participants and Food Stamp Costs for Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions for 2040*

65 Percent Change in Projected Prison, TANF, Food Stamp, and Medicaid Participants and Costs for Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas Under Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions, 2000 to 2040*

66 Texas State Data Center
Steve Murdock Texas State Data Center Phone (CS) Phone (AUS) Fax Website txsdc.tamu.edu


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