1. Computers in a Changing Society By John Preston, Robert Ferrett, and Sally Preston © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.1

2. Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7 The Past Shapes the Future © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.2

3. Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7 Learning Objectives I.The Past Recognize factors that influenced computer development in the U.S. Understand the relationship of patent and copyright to the U.S. Constitution Identify examples of entrepreneurs and their motivations Become aware of the technologically related advantages after World War II Identify types of research conducted by companies and the government Identify examples of computer technology developed by IBM, Bell, Xerox, Stanford, and the University of Illinois Understand policies regarding ownership of inventions at Stanford and U of I Understand the role of venture capital in technology start-ups Recognize contributions of counterculture Understand the implications of Moore's law and Metcalfe's law Develop familiarity with leadership of computer companies by founding entrepreneurs Identify key elements of Microsoft's history Identify key elements of Apple's history © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.3

4. Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7 Learning Objectives II.The Future Become familiar with the legal environment Understand the effect of capital gains taxes Recognize factors that encourage entrepreneurs Understand the importance of basic research to future growth Understand the value of cultural diversity and tolerance Identify examples of new technologies that may extend Moore's law Recognize expected changes in the computer/human interface Develop familiarity with developments in artificial intelligence Develop familiarity with the use of robots Understand the effect of more connectivity Understand the effect of aging leadership in the computer industry Identify examples of impact on health, military, and the government Develop familiarity with coping strategies © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.4

5. I.The Past The Past Shapes the Present Age of ubiquitous personal computers and networked connectivity 1970s mainframe dominance 1970s and 1980s Japanese business model and market share 1982—Japan’s Ministry of Trade and Industry (MITI) supercomputing plans Eight interconnecting factors creating a personal computer society Rule of Law Patent and copyright laws established by U.S. founders U.S. Constitution guarantees the rights of authors and inventors Right of authors and inventors to profit from original work recognized by Americans © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.5 Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7

6. I.The Past Spirit of Entrepreneurism The importance of historical figures Thomas Edison, Alexander Graham Bell, Henry Ford Others—Success-based inventions and business ingenuity Immigrants and the U.S. dream Entrepreneur: A person who takes the risk of starting a new business Other Countries—Creative works property of the government U.S. protects entrepreneurs through copyright and patent laws Computer Entrepreneurs Post-World War II (WWII) Arms Race and Prosperity Soviet and American forces The race for scientific information and German rocket scientists Cold war—Soviets and first satellite in orbit U.S. and electronic component miniaturization Transistors and integrated circuits Economic advantage © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.6 Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7

7. I.The Past Company and University Research Labs Applied Research: Approach being used by laboratories for seeking ways to make practical use of an invention or discovery Basic Research: Approach used to discover completely new phenomena that may or may not have a commercial application Large Companies and Basic Research Funding Profit related discoveries The big three computing corporations: IBM, Bell Laboratories, and Xerox Government Agencies and Basic Research Funding Profit related discoveries and exploring the unknown without commercialization © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.7 Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7

8. I.The Past Company and University Research Labs © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.8 Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7 Research Contributing Corporations—Bell Laboratories TransistorsCommunication Satellites LasersDigital Signal Processors Optical Fiber CommunicationsUNIX Operating Systems Cell Phones Research Contributing Corporations—IBM One-Transistor Dynamic RAM Memory (DRAM)Data Encryption Standard—Public/Private Encryption Magnetic Disk Storage—Hard DisksScalable Parallel Systems w/Multiple Processors Relational DatabasesSpeech Recognition Software FORTRAN Computer LanguageDeep Blue—32 processor computer Research Contributing Corporations—Xerox Laser PrintersWord Processing with WYSIWYG SmallTalk—The First Object-Oriented Programming LanguageSolid-State Lasers Client/Server Computer ArchitecturePop-Up Menus Graphic User Interface (GUI)A Worm Program Ethernet—Local Area Network (LAN)Linguistic Technology—Spell Checkers, Thesaurus, and Dictionaries

9. I.The Past Company and University Research Labs University Research Labs Stanford—Example university that allowed students to keep rights to inventions and spin off companies Three major companies founded: (a) SUN Microsystems (Stanford University Network)— Internet Servers and Software; (b) Silicon Graphics (SGI)—Workstations; (c) CISCO Systems—Network Infrastructure Devices University of Illinois—Example university famous for denying Marc Andreessen rights to Mosaic Web browser, which he later rewrote as Netscape University of Illinois licensed Mosaic rights to competitor, Spyglass, Inc. Spyglass made agreement with Microsoft for incorporation into Windows as Internet Explorer © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.9 Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7

10. I.The Past Venture Capital and Reduced Capital Gains Taxes Venture Capital Definition: Money risked to help people start new companies Needed to created company for production and sale of invention Individuals, not conservative institutions (banks), fund high-risk investments Historical Perspective—Queen Isabella of Spain and Christopher Columbus Mid 1950s—U.S. Government promoted small business investment companies (SBIC) Acted on behalf of individuals to pool venture capital to fund larger projects Capital Gains: Profits made from investment in business Prior to 1974—Taxed at 35%; 1984—Congress reduced to 20% to stimulate economic growth Result: More money for venture capitalism in 1980s Counterculture of the 1970s The Effect of Vietnam War on Corporations and Government Anti-War Sentiment Result: (a) Education professionals (teachers and professors) ; (b) Free software and open source software © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.10 Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7

11. I.The Past Hardware Increasing in Power Exponentially Falling Prices and Increasing Power Comparison of automobiles and computers Automobiles—Since 1982, improvements have occurred, yet cost has risen IBM PCs—Since 1982, improvements have occurred, yet cost has decreased Linear Growth: When the same amount is added to a number to obtain the next number in a sequence Exponential Growth: When something increases by a multiple in each interval, such as doubling, like in Moore’s law Moore’s Law: The computing power of integrated circuits will double every two years Gordon Moore—One of Intel corporation founders Predicted in 1965: Integrated circuits would increase in complexity while falling in price at an exponential rate Simplified Prediction: The power of integrated circuits per dollar of cost would experience exponential growth © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.11 Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7

12. I.The Past Hardware Increasing in Power Exponentially © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.12 Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7

13. I.The Past Value of Connectivity Increasing Exponentially Inventor of Ethernet: Robert Metcalfe Metcalfe’s Law: “The value of a network grows as the square of the number of users.” Subject Form—Hard to measure, but supported by Internet growth 1983—Less than 1,000 connected to ARPANET (former Internet) 2003—Over 600 million Entrepreneurs Running Large Companies Internet Produced Rich and Powerful Companies Quick to React to Industry Demands Young Entrepreneurs—Microsoft, Apple, SUN, Oracle, and Dell Bill Gates—Microsoft Steve Jobs—Apple Michael Dell—Dell Scott McNeely—SUN Larry Ellison—Oracle © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.13 Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7

14. I.The Past Hardware Increasing in Power Exponentially © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.14 Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7

15. I.The Past Hardware Increasing in Power Exponentially © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.15 Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7

16. I.The Past Hardware Increasing in Power Exponentially © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.16 Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7

17. I.The Past Examples—Microsoft and Apple Microsoft Traditional Values—Junior & Senior Fundraiser Bill Gates (8 th Grade) and Paul Allen (10 th Grade)—Friends with programming interest Gates Harvard freshman when Intel released 8088 microprocessor and the first PC, Altair Dropped out of Harvard and started Microsoft with Allen Adopted BASIC programming language on new computer IBM Gets into PC business Hired Microsoft to develop operating system (OS), called PC-DOS Introduced IBM PC in 1981 IBM allows Microsoft to retain rights to sell OS, called MS-DOS © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.17 Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7

18. I.The Past Examples—Microsoft and Apple Microsoft Clones: Rival computers that were functional copies of the IBM PC Late 1980s PC Market Share: 80% with 40% IBM Microsoft received royalty from sale of non-IBM computers using MS-DOS Clone becomes stronger than IBM PC Other rival: Apple with unique operating system, different hardware, and in 1984 introduced graphic user interface (GUI) © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.18 Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7

19. I.The Past Examples—Microsoft and Apple Microsoft—Becomes software developing giant Windows Operating System (OS) with Utilities Windows Office Productivity Suite—Word, Excel, PowerPoint, and Access Microsoft—One of most profitable corporations in the world Microsoft rewards employees (ownership) Bill Gates One of richest people in the world Philanthropic endowments Microsoft Critics (a) Accusations of unfair advantage (b) 2001—U.S. Supreme Court ruled Microsoft guilty of unfair business practices (c) Microsoft faces lawsuits in Europe over business practices © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.19 Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7

20. I.The Past Examples—Microsoft and Apple Microsoft © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.20 Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7 MilestoneYear Gates and Allen learn to program1969 Microsoft founded1975 BASIC language adapted to the Altair PC1975 IBM PC with DOS by Microsoft introduced. MS retains rights to sell clone makers 1981 Microsoft Office for Macintosh1989 Graphic user interface added to DOS, Windows 3.01990 Windows 95—Competes successfully with Apple GUI1995 Internet Explorer1997 Found guilty of unfair competitive business practices2001

21. I.The Past Examples—Microsoft and Apple Counterculture and Reaction to Big Business 1970s—Berkeley and Stanford Groups like Home Brew Computer Club at Stanford share inventions and discoveries Steve Wozniak Genius inventor of “blue box” created from circuits Started work on own PC and demonstrated it at Home Brew Computer Club Working for Hewlett-Packard Electronics, which was offered first rights on invention Steve Jobs Realized potential of chips and credits Wozniak with blue box Visionary entrepreneur of Apple I A.C. Markkula invested undisclosed amount in venture capital and became CEO Arthur Rock, venture capitalist, funded $600K to launch Apple II Market share 50% in a few years Steve Jobs worth $20M Dan Bricklin developed a popular software program called VisiCalc for financial projections 1981—IBM introduced the IBM PC, which was similar to Apple II © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.21 Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7

22. I.The Past Examples—Microsoft and Apple Counterculture and Reaction to Big Business Researchers at Xerox PARC invented the Alto Cost over $10K and Xerox did not see its potential value 1979, Jobs toured the Xerox Palo Alto Research Center where he saw the graphic user interface (GUI) Jobs dropped development efforts to devote all company’s resources to creating an affordable computer with graphical user interface, known as Macintosh 1985, Jobs left Apple and company floundered Larry Ellison, CEO of Oracle, announced the possibility of buying Apple 1996, Jobs returned to Apple after selling NexT to Apple Jobs revitalized the company with high-quality products 1997, Microsoft invested $150 million in Apple as well as technology collaboration Jobs departure and return demonstrates the importance of visionary entrepreneurs Apple Computers Loyal following Typically more stylish than other PCs Users of Macintosh computers—“Mac People” View Microsoft as the corporate ethic which they rebel against Brand loyalty sparks debate © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.22 Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7

23. I.The Past Examples—Microsoft and Apple Apple © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.23 Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7 MilestoneYear Jobs drops out of college and immerses himself in the counterculture1973 Jobs travels to India seeking enlightenment1974 Jobs attends the Home Brew Computer Club with Wozniak. They start the Apple company.1974 Apple introduces the Apple I computer1976 A.C. Markkula invests and becomes chairman of the board. Arthur Rock and the Rockefellers invest $600,000 of venture capital 1977 Apple II1977 Apple III—recalled the first 14,000 units, cost $10,000, lost money1981 John Scully moves from Pepsi to run Apple1983 Macintosh with GUI introduced in famous Super Bowl ad1984 Scully ousts Jobs, who leaves Apple and founds NexT. Apple lays off 1,200 employees1985 Apple sues Microsoft over Windows1988

24. I.The Past Examples—Microsoft and Apple Apple © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.24 Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7 MilestoneYear Apple lays off 15,600 employees1991 Apple loses lawsuit against Microsoft1992 Apple introduces Newton PDA. Scully replaced. 2,500 employees laid off1993 IBM offers to buy Apple1994 Apple recalls laptops when two burst into flames1995 Apple lays off 1,300 employees. Apple and SUN discuss merger. Second quarter loss of $700 million predicted 1996 Apple buys NexT and Jobs returns to Apple1996 Larry Ellison considers buying Apple. Jobs appointed interim CEO at a salary of $1 per year until return to profitability 1997 Apple introduces iMac, PowerBook G3, returns to profitability1998 Jobs named full CEO2000

25. II.The Present Shapes the Future Rule of Law Rights of Authors and Inventors Protecting the rights of authors and inventors Fundamental right and constitutional responsibility of the U.S. Congress Difficult to enforce Digital copying and distributed file servers over the Internet Methods of distributing media Methods of payment Preventing software piracy Microsoft and.NET strategy—Charge for software on annual license renewal Voluntary payment National Science Foundation study U.S. computer industry prosperity Depends on attracting best and brightest globally U.S. Incentive is protection of right to profit from ideas © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.25 Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7

26. II.The Present Shapes the Future Entrepreneurism and Venture Capital Fame and Fortune Entrepreneurs seek fame and fortune Need to produce popular product or service Venture capitalists fund entrepreneurs Capital gains ups and downs Intel and Apple Congress controls capital gains Microsoft—Lower consumer cost vs. healthy economic competition Microsoft—Employee application developers have “secret” unfair advantage Fame Famous inventors—Thomas Edison and Wright brothers Computer science and engineering—nerds and geeks Economy dependent upon future scientists Encouraging youth through diverse role models © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.26 Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7

27. II.The Present Shapes the Future Research and Post-World War II Prosperity United States Advantage of time and money to create new technologies Soviet Union collapse in 1990—U.S. becomes world super power Diminishing domestic resources Importing necessities Exporting high-tech goods and services U.S. leads world in research Continued strength depends upon research Census bureau—Trade balance indicator of prosperity Supporting research and continued economic prosperity Regulatory and tax environment that encourages future investment Government and corporate policy that supports basic research © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.27 Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7

28. II.The Present Shapes the Future Diversity of Cultures Computing Culture Diversity abounds in America and the world of computing Counterculture of the 1970s Influence evident in Internet—shareware, freeware, open source programs Diversity of computing ensures healthy economic growth Promote diversity Recognize contributions of counterculture, entrepreneurs, and big business Invite global diversity to the U.S. Hardware and Software Moore’s law Nanotechnology: Devices measured in nanometers (billionths of a meter) Sumio Iijima, Scientist at NEC, and discovery of carbon nanotubes Nantero, a start-up Massachusetts-based company, and the terabyte (1 million megabytes) memory chip—32 gigahertz by 2012 © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.28 Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7

29. II.The Present Shapes the Future Hardware and Software Example Advanced Technologies Changes in the Computer/Human Interface Replacing the monitor—CRTs to flat panel, miniaturization, and retinal imaging Replacing the keyboard and mouse Voice recognition, digital divide, and fingertip clips Virtual Reality and Avatars Virtual Reality (VR): Artificial world User interactive Biological integration—Visual displays Avatars: Animated images used in virtual reality Gaming popularity Movies—Artificial characters © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.29 Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7

30. II.The Present Shapes the Future Artificial Intelligence (AI) The ability of computers to think like a human or think in a completely new way that might be superior to human thought Intelligent machine—Forces definition of human intelligence Turing test—Devised by Alan Turing in 1950s IBM’s Deep Blue and world champion chess match Deep computing: AI methods exhibited by IBM’s Deep Blue IBM’s Deep Computing Institute Expert systems: Providing consultation for complex problems Data mining: Finding patterns in large databases © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.30 Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7

31. II.The Present Shapes the Future Artificial Intelligence (AI) AI Limitations Human brain does not work like a digital computer People use knowledge—Context Cycorp—Developing database called “Common Sense” Ambiguity of human language Problem solving Algorithms—step-by-step series of instructions used to write computer programs Difficult to get computer to do what is meant rather than what is said People are not programmed—they learn from experience Transistors vs. Thinking and the Human Brain Fuzzy logic: Rules that deal with less exact situations (close is good enough) Fuzzy logic circuits—hand-held video cameras Pattern recognition: Ability to identify something from characteristic arrangement of features IBM research scientists Neural networks—a modeling technique based on the observed behavior of biological neurons. Used to mimic the performance of a system and found in applications such as robotics, diagnosing, forecasting, image processing, and pattern recognition © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.31 Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7

32. II.The Present Shapes the Future Robots Karel Capek, Czech playwright Czech word “robota” means work Miniature robots built with nanotechnology Larger robots used in manufacturing industry Robots perform welding and hazardous work Robots do not look like humans Robotics statistics Science fiction writers—humanoid robots Moral and ethical questions Silicon-based life forms: term for sentient AI computer systems Carbon-based life forms: human beings Continuous Connectivity Converging communications technology Internet2 Regional net fragmentation © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.32 Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7

33. II.The Present Shapes the Future Aging of Leadership Young Leaders of Computer Revolution Maturing Attitudes and Changing Values Loss of Corporate Leadership—Future Retirement Challenge of Retaining Inspired Leadership and Visionary Ability © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.33 Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7 NameCompany and PositionYear BornCurrent Age Bill GatesMicrosoft —CSA and Chairman1955Late 40s Steve BalmerMicrosoft—CEO1956Late 40s Steve JobsApple—CEO1955Late 40s Michael DellDell—CEO1965Mid 30s Scott McNeelySUN—CEO1960Late 40s Larry EllisonOracle—CEO1945Late 50s

34. II.The Present Shapes the Future Examples Exponential Increase in Processor Power Expectations for next 15 years Health Revolutionary changes in biology and human healthcare Robotics, Internet2, DNA mapping, treating disease Military Equipment and training—robotics, simulations, surveillance Recruitment advertising Skills other than technological— culture and languages © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.34 Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7

35. II.The Present Shapes the Future Examples Exponential Increase in Processor Power Expectations for next 15 years Government Online voting Law enforcement agencies and U.S. Patriot Act Health insurance business De facto national ID number—Biometrics and DNA sequence Terrorist attacks and potential population migration Confrontations—Cyberwar and fighting online Increased foreign resource dependency © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.35 Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7

36. II.The Present Shapes the Future Coping With Computers in a Changing Society Utilizing Diverse Sources of Information Newspapers and television stations Science fiction Extrapolation of future trends Evaluate Look for opportunities as well as threats Talk Converse with children—Learn, monitor, and assess Life-long learning Planning for change Developing new skills Technology breaks Escaping from technology Beauty of nature to gain perspective © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.36 Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7

37. Chapter Summary © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.37 OutlineObjectives The Past  Factors that influenced computer development in the U.S.: (a) Rule of law; (b) Entrepreneurism; (c) Victory in WWI and Cold War; (d) Research; (e) Venture capital; (f) Counterculture; (g) Exponential increase in computer power; (h) Exponential increase in value of connectivity; (i) Entrepreneurs run large companies  Relationship of patent and copyright to the U.S. Constitution: Constitutional right in Article I, section 8  Examples of entrepreneurs: (a) Pre-WWII: Edison, Bell, Ford, Wright brothers; (b) Computer Era: Gates, Jobs, Dell, McNeely, Ellison  Motivations of entrepreneurs: Fame and fortune  Advantages after WWII: (a) Factories not destroyed; (b) Space race pushed miniaturization  Types of government and corporate research: (a) Applied—making products out of discoveries; (b) Basic—seeking new knowledge  Examples of computer technology developed by IBM, Bell, Xerox, Stanford, and University of Illinois: (a) Bell labs—transistor, laser, optical fiber, cell phones, communications satellites, digital signal processors, UNIX operating system; (b) IBM labs—DRAM, hard disks, relational databases, FORTRAN language, public key encryption, scalable parallel processor systems, speech recognition, Deep Blue chess and problem solving; (c) Xerox PARC—laser printers, object oriented programming, GUI, Ethernet, WYSIWYG printing, solid state lasers, pop-up menus, worms, spell checking  Policies regarding invention ownership: (a) Stanford allowed students ownership; (b) University of Illinois claims ownership  Role of venture capital in technology start-ups: Funded Intel and Apple but not Microsoft  Contributions of counterculture: (a) Freeware, shareware, open source programs; (b) Apple computer company  Implications of Moore’s law: Power increases by a factor of two every two years  Implications of Metcalfe’s law: Value of a network increases by the square of the elements connected to the network  Leadership of computer companies by founding entrepreneurs: Microsoft, Apple, Dell, Oracle, SUN  Microsoft history: (a) 1969—Gates and Allen learn to program; (b) 1975—Gates and Allen found Microsoft and adapt BASIC to the Altair; (c) 1981—IBM PC introduced with PC-DOS from Microsoft; (d) 1989—MS Office adapted for Macintosh operating system; (e) 1990—Windows 3.0; (f) 1995—Windows 95; (g) 1997—Internet Explorer; (h) 2001—Guilty of unfair competition, ruled a monopoly  Apple history: (a) 1976—Apple I; (b) 1977—Apple II; (c) 1984—Macintosh; (d) 1985—Jobs ousted; (e) 1988—Sues Microsoft over Windows; (f) 1996—On verge of bankruptcy, Jobs returns; (g) 1997—Jobs made interim CEO; (h) 1998—iMac and PowerBook G3, return to profitability; (i) 2000—Jobs made full CEO

38. Computers in a Changing Society Chapter 7 Chapter Summary © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.38 OutlineObjectives The Future  Legal environment: Royalty payment systems adapting to protect copyright and attract foreign talent  Effect of capital gains taxes: (a) Lower capital gains taxes on profits from tech investments stimulates investment; (b) Lowered to 18% in 2001  Factors that encourage entrepreneurs: Fame and fortune  Importance of basic research to future growth: Provides basis for applications research and new products  Value of cultural diversity and tolerance: Creative new ideas combined with basic research and capitalism provide a unique mix that can be very productive  Example of new technologies that may extend Moore’s law: Nanotechnology like carbon nanotubes  Expected changes in the computer/human interface: (a) Monitors replaced by projected images or visual implants; (b) Keyboard replaced by voice recognition; (c) Mouse replaced by fingertip sensors; (d) Virtual reality environments with avatars representing people  Developments in artificial intelligence: (a) Deep computing wins chess match; (b) Expert systems give advice; (c) Data mining programs look for patterns; (e) Fuzzy logic deals with situations that are partly true or false; (f) Pattern recognition; (g) Neural networks mimic human brains  Use of robots: (a) 100,000 used in manufacturing in North America; (b) Silicon-based life possible within our lifetime  Effect of more connectivity: (a) Some become comfortable with loss of privacy; (b) Internet may split into regions  Effect of aging leadership in the computer industry: (a) Possibly less innovative; (b) Entrenched power  Examples of impact on health, military, and the government: (a) Health—implants that monitor organs, nanotechnology that repairs and maintains organs, DNA deciphered, possible cures for nerve damage and old age; (b) Military—Increased sophistication of surveillance and weapons with risk of becoming dependent on technology rather than human intelligence sources; (c) Government—online voting slowly accepted, Biometrics and DNA used widely for law enforcement, government may take over health insurance, government-sponsored cyber war.  Coping strategies: (a) Diverse sources of information; (b) Read or watch quality science fiction; (c) Evaluate emerging technologies for effects on your job; (d) Discuss new developments with children. Monitor them openly when appropriate; (e) Life- long learning to maintain current job skills; (f) Take breaks from technology