2. Demographic Transition in Thailand Population as enumerated by the censuses. YearPopulation 19108.3Million 19199.2Million 192911.5Million 193714.5Million 194717.4Million 196026.3Million 197034.4Million 198044.5Million 199054.5Million 200060.9Million 201065.4Million* * Cross border migrants were included. Population in Thailand increased 8 folds, from 8.3 m. in 1910 to 65.4 m. in 2010.

3. Demographic Transition in Thailand Number (mill.) Rate (per 1,000) CDR CBR Population The “population explosion” in Thailand occurred during 1950s, 1960s to 1970s. The “population explosion” in Thailand occurred during 1950s, 1960s to 1970s. CBR (>4%) – CDR ( 3% per year. CBR (>4%) – CDR ( 3% per year. The “population explosion” in Thailand occurred during 1950s, 1960s to 1970s. The “population explosion” in Thailand occurred during 1950s, 1960s to 1970s. CBR (>4%) – CDR ( 3% per year. CBR (>4%) – CDR ( 3% per year.

4. Demographic Transition in Thailand Number (mill.) Rate (per 1,000) CDR CBR Population Now, the “Thai population” is stabilizing at 64-65 million. Now, the “Thai population” is stabilizing at 64-65 million. The population growth rate is 0.5% per year. The population growth rate is 0.5% per year. CBR (1.2%) – CDR (0.7%)  GR of 0.5% per year. The reduction of growth rate, from >3% (40 years ago) to 0.5% (now) is due mainly to sharp decline in fertility during the past 3 decades. The reduction of growth rate, from >3% (40 years ago) to 0.5% (now) is due mainly to sharp decline in fertility during the past 3 decades. CBR at 4% (40 years ago) to 1.2% (now). Now, the “Thai population” is stabilizing at 64-65 million. Now, the “Thai population” is stabilizing at 64-65 million. The population growth rate is 0.5% per year. The population growth rate is 0.5% per year. CBR (1.2%) – CDR (0.7%)  GR of 0.5% per year. The reduction of growth rate, from >3% (40 years ago) to 0.5% (now) is due mainly to sharp decline in fertility during the past 3 decades. The reduction of growth rate, from >3% (40 years ago) to 0.5% (now) is due mainly to sharp decline in fertility during the past 3 decades. CBR at 4% (40 years ago) to 1.2% (now).

5. Fertility Transition in Thailand Note : SPC SOFT CPS = Survey of Population Change = Survey of Fertility in Thailand = Contraceptive Prevalence Survey = Longitudinal Survey = National Survey = Contraceptive Use Patterns in Thailand LS NS CUPS Four periods of fertility transition in Thailand: 1.High fertility : before 1970 2.Fertility decline : 1970–1990 3.Low fertility : 1991–1996 4.Below replacement fertility : 1997–present

6. Fertility Transition in Thailand Number of births per year has been declining. From 1963-1983, “one million birth population cohort” In 2010, 0.78 million births registered. TFR a 2, at least 0.9 million births needed. If TFR at 2020 = 1.2, number of births would be 0.6 million. “Replacement level” Number of births (100,000) Note: Before 2009, numbers of births are from vital registration and TFRs are from Survey of Population Change. After 2009, numbers of births are from projection and TFRs are from logistic fitted.

7. Fertility Transition in Thailand Average number of children per woman (throughout her childbearing period) Whole kingdom1.5 Urban1.0 Rural1.7 (Source: SPC 2005 – 2006) Region Bangkok0.9 Central1.2 North1.6 Northeast2.0 South1.5 (Source: SPC 2005 – 2006) Muslims in 3 most southern provinces 3.4 (Source: Est. from RH Survey 2003) Highland ethnic groups Karen2.2 Hmong4.8 (Source: Gray, et al. 2004) Cross-border migrant women Myanmar3.6 (Source: Pimonpan & Sukanya, 2004)

8. Number of years for TFR to decline from 5.5 to 2.2

9. Thailand: Population in broad age groups, 2000-2030 (thousand) Age group2000201020202030 NUMBER Low projection 0-1415,67414,62912,66110,203 15-2915,51716,07614,98913,857 30-6427,19832,18334,53934,199 (15-64)(42,715)(48,259)(49,528)(47,956) 65+3,9585,2517,59411,209 Total62,34768,13969,78269,369 PERCENTAGE Low projection 0-1425211815 15-2925242120 30-6444475049 (15-64)(69)(71) (69) 65+681116 Total100 Source: Author’s calculation; figures from United Nations Population Division, 2008

10. Trends in percentage of population aged 65+ Source: United Nations Population Division 2008, medium projection.

11. Thailand’s new demographic situation Nearing end of population growth Remarkable change in age pyramids Declining child and young adult population Ageing population Demographic dividend ended Migration patterns lowering av. education Population decline in many rural areas Growth of the medium cities

12. Population Pyramids of Thailand 1960-2030

13. Thailand: Index of Growth of Age Groups, 2000-2030

14. Population Ageing and Growth of the Older Population, Thailand 1970-2030

15. Decrease in number of students entering compulsory education, especially primary schools in rural villages. Impact of Fertility Decline School size in 2008 13,909schools with less than 120 students. 381schools of less than 20 students. 262schools with no students. Caused by a)Declining number of births b)Parents’ out-migration c)Commuting to urban schools because of better roads and transportation

16. Population-responsive policies How to best utilize and care for growing elderly population? How to raise human capital of a shrinking workforce? How to prepare health care workforce to adapt to changing care needs? How to best utilize foreign workers? How to plan for growing cities and rural population decline?

17. Living arrangements of persons age 60 and above, Thailand 1986-2007

18. Percentage of households having members attending post- secondary education, by indicator of economic status

19. Influencing population trends Over three decades, Thailand focused on lowering fertility rates Total fertility rate has fallen to 1.5, far below replacement level Longer-term implications of fertility maintained at this level or below are negative: – Population ageing – Contraction of workforce – Negative population momentum – population decline

20. Policy Consideration More emphasis should be on quality than on quantity of births. Thailand should have both pro- and anti-natalist policy : – Pro-natalist : among adults, intended couples. – Anti-natalist :among adolescents. Births from adolescent mothers, 2009 Age of mother%Number (x 1,000) Under 150.382.9 Under 2016.08120.1 Source: Calculated from registered births reported in Public Health Statistics, not adjusted for under registration.

21. Policy Consideration Incentives for pro-natalist : Tax reduction for unlimited number of children. Revise the regulation on the limited 3 children to receive financial and welfare assistance from the government. Any incentive measure must not lead to discrimination of labour employment and promotion.

22. Learning from Asian neighbours Other low-fertility Asian countries are seriously concerned Too slow in introducing pro-natalist policies Thailand should now introduce a set of measures to facilitate raising of children: – Paid maternity (and paternity) leave – Flexible working hours – Eldercare support – Subsidized childcare – Tax incentives and/or baby bonus schemes Can such measures work?