1. Ghulam Rasool Mughal. All Rights Reserved Profile of WWF – Pakistan and Climate Change Dr. Ejaz Ahmad October 16, 2012 Dhaka, Bangladesh

2. WWF’s mission is to stop the degradation of the planet’s natural environment and to build a future in which humans live in harmony with nature, by: conserving the world’s biological diversity. ensuring that the use of renewable natural resources is sustainable. promoting the reduction of pollution and wasteful consumption.

3. WWF - Pakistan 32 WWF is working on 21 projects with 32 offices scattered all over Pakistan. 1970 WWF was founded in 1970 + 350 WWF has over 350 staff in Pakistan US$ 8 million WWF -Pak has an annual budget of US$ 8 million.

4. WWF Network Meta-Goals Reduce Footprint Protect Biodiversity We’re here to stop the degradation of our planet’s natural environment, and build a future where people live in harmony with nature. We do this by Reducing our footprint on the natural world by challenging wasteful consumption and pollution and promoting sustainability. Protecting biodiversity the magnificent array of living things that inhabit our planet, and the places they live. How we do it?

5. The Global 200 The Global 200 is a ranking of the World’s most biologically outstanding terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. Five of these Eco-regions are found in Pakistan: Rann of Kutch Flooded Grasslands Tibetan Plateau Western Himalaya Forest Indus Delta Ecosystem Arabian Sea

6. Marine SpeciesClimate Change Toxics Freshwater Forests Global Priority Issues of WWF

7. Ghulam Rasool Mughal. All Rights Reserved Approaches of WWF Work in partnership and build capacity of partners Integrating conservation & development Involve local communities Research based solutions

8. 350 staff 30+ offices Annual Budget 5 Million

9. Building Capacity on Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Areas of Pakistan www.wwfpak.org/ccap

10. Pakistan contributes very little (135 th ) to Green House Gases (GHGs) but remains one of the most vulnerable country. It contributes only about 0.8% of the total global GHG emissions. Biggest contributor is the energy sector with 50% share, followed by the agriculture sector (39% share), industrial processes (6% share) and other activities (5% share) Impact of climatic changes encompass varied areas such biodiversity, agriculture, fisheries, forests, water, energy, food, natural disasters, etc. This could directly impact country’s national, food, water and energy security 10 Climate Change in Pakistan

11. Pakistan is particularly vulnerable to Climate Change, Visible changes in hydrological cycle have been observed in the form of – Changing precipitation pattern – Droughts – Water availability periods – Frequency and intensity of heat waves – Precipitation events – Weather-induced natural disasters. Building Capacity on Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Areas of Pakistan

12. The Long-Term Climate Risk Index (CRI): Results (annual averages) in specific indicators in the 10 countries most affected in 1991 to 2010 Source:Germanwatch 12

13. The Climate Risk Index for 2010: the 10 Most Affected Countries Source:Germanwatch 13

14. Present Climatic Indicators: Temperature Average annual temperature over Pakistan increased by 0.6 °C during the last century, with the temperature increase over northern Pakistan being higher than over southern Pakistan (0.8 °C versus 0.5 °C) Global Circulation Models (GCMs) outputs: Source: Report of Task Force on Climate Change, February 2010 YearExpected temperature increase 2020s1.3 – 1.5 °C 2050s2.5 – 2.8 °C 2080s3.9 – 4.4 °C 14

15. Annual Temperature Variation Building Capacity on Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Areas of Pakistan Past 50 years’ daily temp (weighted annual averages) – rise after ‘00, excepting ’05. Trend due partly to severest El-Nino yet (>4⁰C above normal heating of East- Equatorial Pacific water

16. Implications Increase in maximum and minimum temperatures in the winter season results in shorter winters as well longer summers Reduce the length of the growing season for crops  Hastens the biological life cycle of crops  Plants undergo accelerated maturity without reaching the appropriate size or height  Reduced economic yields  This trend is observable in the case of wheat. Building Capacity on Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Areas of Pakistan

17. Present Climatic Indicators: Precipitation Precipitation over Pakistan increased on the average by 25%. However, there is expected no significant change in annual precipitation in near future It is projected that climate change will increase the variability of monsoon rains resulting into increased frequency and severity of floods and droughts Source: Report of Task Force on Climate Change, February 2010 17

18. Existing policy, institutional and legislative structure Pakistan’s environmental policy framework is based on the Pakistan Environment Protection Act 1997 (PEPA) Ministry of Climate Change has been established “Inter-ministerial Committee on Climate Change” was established in 2008 In 2008, Planning Commission established a Task Force on Climate Change 18

19. National Climate Change Policy 2012 provides framework for addressing climatic issues Drinking and National Water Policy, National Sustainable Development Strategy, National Rangeland Policy, Pakistan Water Sector Strategy, Punjab Urban Water and Sanitation Policy are few in the list of many policy documents Existing policy, institutional and legislative structure….contd. 19

20. Pakistan is divided into three hydrological units: – the Indus basin, covering an area of over 566,000 km 2 (70% of the surveyed area in the country), – the Kharan desert in west Balochistan with its inland drainage, and – the arid Makran coast along the Arabian Sea in the South National Scenario: Hydrological Units Source: Pakistan Initial Communication on Climate Change 20

21. 21 Indus Irrigation System

22. National Scenario: Forests Forest in Pakistan is diverse because of varied ecological zones and environment variations Total estimated area under forest cover is around 4.22 million hectares, which comprises of 4.8% total landmass It is envisaged to increase forest cover from 4.9% of the total land area in 2005 to 5.2% in 2010 and 6.0% by 2015 Pakistan is gifted with diverse habitats that are home to varied animal and plant life Source: State of Forests and Forestry in Pakistan; Shahid Rashid Awan and Asghar Khan July 2009 22

23. Disaster Management Systems National Disaster Management (NDM) Act 2010 provides a complete institutional mechanism of pre, during and post disaster management at federal, provincial and district levels National Disaster Management Council (NDMC) is an apex body in the field of disaster management under the chairmanship of Prime Minister National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) is the leading implementing agency headed by Chairman/Director General 23

24. Water Security Socioeconomic Water Sector: Current Status and Vulnerability – Pakistan is extremely short of fresh water resources. – Water-stressed country water availability heading towards less than 1000 cubic meter/y by 2035 (WB 2006). – Pakistan’s primary sources of water are rainfall (50 maf ) by monsoon and westerly winds and river inflows (141 maf) in the Indus River System fed by glaciers and snowmelt from the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayas. – The shares of main contributing rivers to the IRS in Pakistan are: Indus: 44%, Chenab: 19%, Jhelum: 16%, Kabul: 16% and Others: 5% (see Figure 5.1). The per capita availability of river water, which was 5,650 cubic meter/y in 1951 and 1000 cubic meter/y in 2010, is expected to decline further to 800 cubic meter/y in 2026. 24

25. Vulnerabilities of The Indus Delta due to Climate Change The Indus Delta is a fertile region located in climatically arid zone of intense heat and highly variable annual rainfall Deltaic region is vulnerable to climate change induced problems which include: – Droughts and floods – Saline water intrusion – Coastal erosion – Increased crop water requirement Building Capacity on Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Areas of Pakistan

26. Precipitation Inter-annual variability of precipitation over Pakistan during the last century and first decade of 21 st century. Climate Research Unit (CRU) data used to downscale Pakistan’s regional precipitation Building Capacity on Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Areas of Pakistan Past 50 years Indus Ecoregion trends (droughts eg, 68-69 and 71-74), has damaged crops, ecosystem services, etc. In this case, the real time precipitation records of 56 meteorological stations have been incorporated

27. Sea Surface Temperature Pakistan receives rainfall in summer mainly from weather systems formed over the North Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal Frequency and intensity of Tropical Cyclones has increased Analysis revealed that the Bay of Bengal was warmer than the North Arabian Sea till mid 1990s. The trend started inverting and now the latter is slightly warmer than the former. Building Capacity on Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Areas of Pakistan

28. Sea Surface Temperature Inter-annual variation of sea surface temperature over the North Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal in June from 1982 to 2011 Building Capacity on Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Areas of Pakistan

29. Sea Level Rise There is evidence of sea level rise along the Pakistan coast Effects include: – Coastal erosion; – Wetland and coastal plain flooding; – Inundation of deltaic plains; – Salinization of aquifers and soils; – Loss of habitats for fish, birds, and other wildlife and plants Building Capacity on Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Areas of Pakistan

30. Coastal Erosion

31. 1.2 million acre land in Indus Delta is under water intrusion App. 4,544 ha agriculture land has been destroyed along Humbas Wali creek since 1952 This area was irrigated through Ochito River by regular flow of Indus River up to 1960s Change/Shift in agricultural activities Agriculture land in 1952 Agriculture land in 2006 Humbas Wali creek

32. Sea Intrusion and Coastal Erosion 0.5 million hectares of fertile land in Thatta district alone (or 12% of the entire cultivated area of the province) is affected by sea intrusion. Lives of about 400,000 fishermen families are threatened Rangeland depletion, shortage of fodder and food crops, reduction in potable water, losses to livestock production are translating into out migration of local population.

33. Rapid Glaciers Retreat Pakistan’s rivers are predominantly fed by Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalyan glaciers. These are receding due to rising temperatures Building Capacity on Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Areas of Pakistan Siachen Glacier (largest glacier of HKH) retreated by 5.9 km during 21 years and lost 17% ice mass

34. Extreme Weather Events Recent extreme weather events which inflicted great loss to the socio-economic sector  Cloudburst Events 2001, 2003, 2007, 2008,2009, 2010, 2011  Prolonged Drought 1999-2002  Historic River Flooding 2010  Tropical Cyclones 1999,2007,2009,2010, 2011  Severe Urban Flooding 2001, 2003, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011  Heat Waves in Spring 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011 (Reduced the wheat yield)  Snowmelt flooding 2005, 2007 and 2010  Drought at sowing stage 2004, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010 and 2011 Building Capacity on Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Areas of Pakistan

35. 35 Thank you www.wwfpak.org/ccap