1. Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
Climate Change, Disasters and Security…Issues, Concerns and Implications for India
Main Quest
Tracing the Climate Change- Disasters - Security Nexus
Concl
Climate change & disasters linked intrinsically to security through societal vulnerabilities and environmental depletion
Climate change leading to increasing disasters in India –a potential security threat that could severely challenge India’s development and global power aspirations
Policy Impls
Integrated Risk Management Framework, Adaptation and Mitigation, Structural to Non Structural Mitigation, Impact Assessment, CCDRI, Modeling, Vulnerability Atlas, Climate Change to “Climate Affairs”, Development as a Tool for Risk Reduction, Centre State Relations, International Cooperation
Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
4/15/2017

2. Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change
Temp ( ) ° C
Global snow cover has receded by some 10%
Global average sea level rise to 0.2 meters
Source: IPCC AR4 (WG1)
Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
4/15/2017

3. Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
Climate Disasters- CRED 2007 Report
Average- 365
Average- 195
Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
4/15/2017

4. Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
Global Disaster Trends
Major types of natural disasters
2006
2005
Geological 36 33
40.0
Floods and related
254
206
177.6
Droughts and related 60 69
72.8
Windstorms 77
125
102.6
Total
427
433
393.0
Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
4/15/2017

5. Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
Occurrence by major types of natural disasters
Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
4/15/2017

6. Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
Top 10 Disasters 2007
Event
Date
Country
Deaths
Cyclone Sidr
Flood
Earthquake
Heat Wave
Cyclone Yemyin
Flood and landsl.
November
July-August
July-Sep
August
June-July
July
June
Bangladesh
India
Korea
China, P Rep
Peru
Hungary
Pakistan
4,234
1,110
1,103
610
535
519
500
242
230
225
Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
4/15/2017

7. Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
Time Line Trend of Natural Disasters
Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
4/15/2017

8. Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
Trend Natural Disasters 2006 and 2007
CRED Disaster CRUNCH 2007
Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
4/15/2017

9. Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
Climate Change- Disasters –Security Nexus
Climate Change
Resource scarcity
Poverty/inequality
Political instability
Lack of development
Lack of human security
Conflict
Security
Disasters
Natural
Hazard
Vulnerable
Conditions
Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
4/15/2017

10. Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
Climate Change- Indian Scenario
IPCC
Indian – (NATCOM 2004)
Warming °C (3.3 °C), winter 3.6 °C summer 2.7 °C
Warming - 3 to 4°C (2.1 to 2.6 C in the 2050s and 3.3 to 3.8 C in the 2080s)
Precipitation - decrease in inter dry period (mean change -5%, range -35 to +15 %) , increase for rest of the year (mean change +11 %, range -3 to +23 %).
Precipitation - 10 and 40% increase, variations in the spatial pattern, enhanced in northwestern and central India
Sea level rise of 0.1 to 0.9m
High along west coast
Sea level rise 0.09 to 0.88m
Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
4/15/2017

11. Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
Disasters- Indian Scenario
India supports 1/6th of world’s population on 2 % of world's landmass
59% of land vulnerable to Earthquakes
28% of land vulnerable to Drought
40 million hectares (12%) of land vulnerable
to Floods
80% of coast vulnerable to Cyclones
Different types of manmade Hazards
1 million houses damaged annually + human, economic, social, other losses
Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
4/15/2017

12. Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
Disaster Profile- India
Rs 28,678 Crores
Rs 47,464 crores
Rs 87,500 crores
2007
India
China US
No of Significant disasters 21 38 31
Victims
7.3 m
88 m
2.3 m
Economic damages
3.3 bn US $
13.5 bn US $
5 bn US $
Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
4/15/2017

13. INDIA ECONOMIC LOSSES DUE TO DISASTERS
50 %
139 %
112,000 Cr
Losses in Thousand Crores
311 %
PERIOD
Annual- Impact on People
1. Losses in lives
2. People affected - 30 Million.
3. Houses lost Million.
Annual- Financial Losses
Percentage of Central Revenue
(for relief) – 12%.

14. Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
Projected Impacts of Climate Change in India
Coastal Zone
Area (coastal districts ) approx 379,610 Km2,
Population density of 455 pers /Km2, 1.5 times national average of 324 pers/ Km2
Sea level rise highest along Gulf of Kutchh/ coast of West Bengal
01m Sea Level Rise
displace approx 7.1 million people, about 5,764 Km2 of land are will be lost, 4200 km of road
Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
4/15/2017

15. Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
Recommendations
Integrated Risk Management Framework
Adaptation and Mitigation
Structural to Non Structural Mitigation
Impact Assessment
CCDRI
Modeling
Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
4/15/2017

16. Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
Recommendations
Vulnerability Atlas
Climate Change to “Climate Affairs”
Development as a Tool for Risk Reduction
Centre State Relations
International Cooperation
Climate Change- Need for Single Authority
Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
4/15/2017

17. Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
Thank You Questions?
Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI 17
4/15/2017

18. Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
India: GHG Sectorwise emissions
Energy efficiency across the board very important
Another relatively cost-effective area for carbon savings is land-use –the sector accounts for 9-18% of global emissions. Hence important to tackle emissions from deforestation
A substantial body of evidence suggests that action to prevent further deforestation would be relatively cheap compared with other types of mitigation
Studies suggest that costs are low for early action on a significant scale
Deforestation is highly concentrated in a few countries. Currently around 30% of land-use emissions are from Indonesia and a further 20% from Brazil
Note are other co-benefits from avoided deforestation. The project in Namibia, Mozambique, combines sustainable agriculture and forestry to regenerate the local environment, reduce emissions and reduce poverty. Carbon credits have been sold to the Carbon Neutral Company, which specialises in supplying credits to the carbon offset market that is growing rapidly in rich countries
But are important sovereignty issues. Situation different in Brazil, Congo Basin, Indonesia
Large-scale pilot schemes can help provide more information about appropriate policy response – whether carbon markets or not
Source : NATCOM
Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
4/15/2017