1. Oregon Transportation System Its Growth and Pressures Carolyn Gassaway January 14, 2015

2. Oregon’s Transportation System Statewide system including 71,672 miles of highways, streets and roads, serving Motor vehicles Bicycles Pedestrians 11,000 Public transit stops for buses and light rail Transportation for the elderly and disabled 2,369 miles of rail track – 53 percent are short lines 7 commercial airports and 90 public use airports 23 marine ports: 50 deep-draft, 7 shallow-draft Public and privately owned Example – Rail Freight – mostly privately-owned track, cars and equipment Passenger – privately-owned track and publicly-owned cars

4. Complex Governance Oregon Department of Transportation Oregon Department of Aviation Other state agencies and entities, e.g. state universities, State Parks 242 incorporated cities 36 counties 8 Metropolitan Planning Organizations 23 port districts 230 public transportation providers 9 federally recognized tribal governments Federal agencies including US Department of Transportation US Forest Service Bureau of Land Management Federal Aviation Administration Federal Maritime Administration Federal Railroad Administration

5. Oregon’s Population Growth July 2014 – 3.96 million 3.5 percent or 133,675 person increase since 2010 census Forecast to reach 4.3 million in 2020 at an annual rate of growth approaching 1.2 percent Since 2010, 62 percent of growth due to net in-migration

6. Uneven Population Growth Greatest growth in past 10 years Upper Willamette Valley Central Oregon Jackson County Negative growth – rural counties mainly in Eastern Oregon Transportation consequences Increased congestion in urban areas More costly or declining transportation services in rural areas Millennials – born 1981 – 1995 Delaying obtaining driver’s license Driving less Traveling by bicycle and foot Long-term effects uncertain Aging population People over 65 – 15.6 percent of population 21 percent of rural population Under 14 percent of urban population In 2015 – 2017 – growth of 8.5 percent With aging in place, increased need for public transit and specialized transportation

7. Trends and Pressures Aging infrastructure Congestion and system unreliability Changing vehicle and fuel technologies Greenhouse gas emissions Seismic possibility Declining funding

8. Aging Infrastructure Many bridges, interchanges, locks and jetties are 50-80 years old Bridges – goal is 80 percent non-distressed Distressed bridges have deteriorated or have conditions that compromise mobility or safety. Currently bridge repairs almost reach goal, but bulk of bridges need repairs and replacements by 2030-2050. OTIA programs repaired or replaced 10 percent (271) of ODOT’s bridges. Highway Pavement – goal is 78 percent fair or better Currently state highways meet goal, but are projected to fall below goal by 2019 with current funding level. Over half of Oregon’s 2,000 public transit vehicles will need replacing over next 5 years.

9. Congestion and System Unreliability Portland Metro area 2010 AM and PM peak period equals 35 percent of total trips. Truck trips average almost 2.5 times mileage of car trips. Average household faces congestion over 27 hours/year. With committed projects completed by 2040 Car trips increase 49 percent. Truck trips increase 76 percent. Average daily speeds drop from 35.3 mph to 31.8 mph. Average household experiences an additional 68.4 hours in congestion annually. Mid-Willamette Valley, Ben, Corvallis 2010-2040 Number of trips grow by 44.6 percent. Peak periods account for roughly 14 percent of daily trips. Average daily vehicle speeds drop from 38.2 mph to 31.3 mph. Average household experiences an additional 18.4 hours in congestion.

10. Effects of Congestion Increased variability in travel times Increased frequency of incident-related delays Decreased market access and employee access Increased schedule uncertainty for business deliveries and commuters and travelers Loss of employers who are time and access sensitive

11. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions such as carbon dioxide trap heat in the atmosphere. This is predicted to result in rising global temperatures and significant weather events, such as drought, strong storms, flooding, and tidal surges. Climate is known to be already changing and will continue to change, but exactly how it will change, particularly at the local level, is not known. ORS 468A.205 says that GHD emissions must be reduced 10 percent by 2020 and 75 percent by 2050. Transportation Impacts Significant temperatures and weather events affect pavement materials, operations, and maintenance because of landslides, increased potholes, scouring of bridge supports, flood damage to roads, and shoreline erosion. Reduction of GHG emissions involves changes in vehicle fuel, technology and use, transportation operations, land use, air traffic modernization, and freight efficiencies.

12. Seismic Possibility A Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake is expected. A magnitude 8.0 or greater quake would cause widespread disruption to bridges and highways. Economic losses of about $405.3 billion (present dollars) over 7 years or 27 percent would occur. Average annual employment level would be 462,000 lower than before the quake.

13. Changing Fuel and Vehicle Technology Desire to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and reduce GHG emissions is leading to changes in vehicle fuels: Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFÉ) standards dictate that fuel efficiency be increased for cars and light trucks to the equivalent of 54 mpg by 2025. Vehicles are increasingly powered by electricity, compressed natural gas, biofuels, and liquefied natural gas. Carmakers are developing hydrogen fuel cells. Commercial aircraft run largely on biofuels. New Technology is changing the driving experience: New vehicle-to-vehicle communication allows cars and trucks to drive closer together and use less roadway space. In-vehicle communications technology and collision-avoidance systems reduce the number and severity of crashes. A wireless technology called v2x that uses vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-infrastructure communication is being developed. This technology requires special roadway infrastructure.

14. Responding to These Trends and Pressures

15. Plans and Strategies Oregon Transportation Plan – statewide, multimodal goals, policies and investment strategies State level plans Highway Rail Aviation Transportation Options Bicycle/Pedestrian Freight Metropolitan Planning Organization plans City and County transportation plans Greenhouse Gas Emissions strategies and reports —Responses to ORS 468A.205 Oregon Statewide Transportation Strategy ODOT’s Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Report Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Toolkit Seismic Plus and Seismic Lifeline Evaluation report

16. Sample Strategies Maintain the transportation infrastructure and address seismic issues. Increase accessibility and transportation options and reduce congestion by supporting public transportation, rail, bicycle/pedestrian and ride sharing programs and compact development. Fully optimize system capacity and safety through operations and technology. For example, make highway travel more reliable by using electronic messaging, ramp metering, incident response, TripCheck and other technology. Promote an integrated, efficient and reliable freight system to provide Oregon a competitive advantage. Support intercity passenger public transportation infrastructure and operations. Support the development and use of cleaner fuels. Continually improve the safety and security of all modes and transportation facilities for system users. Develop stable funding for highway operations and improvements and public transportation.

17. Questions and Discussion