1. Emerging Results From the “SAFER” Project Dr. Wayne A. Dornan Middle Tennessee State University Murfreesboro, TN

2. Collaborators Dr. Paul Craig (Principal Investigator) Dr. John Bertrand (Co-Principal Investigator) Steve Gossett Kim Thorsby

3. PILOT ERROR CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE INDUSTRY

4. Contributing Factors Pilots Missing a Problem Recognizing a Problem to Late Misidentifying a Problem Not Recognizing that there is an Immediate Need to Deal with the Problem Not Utilizing Their Resources

5. Another Contributing Factor In aviation, the importance of critical decision making skills can not be over- emphasized Indeed, the safety of each flight depends on it !

6. Factors Influencing Critical Decision Making Skills One possible contributing factor something psychologists have known for years. Humans consistently are found not to give enough importance to new evidence Can you think of an example? Inadvertent IMC (176 seconds to live)

7. Effective Pilot Training Programs Make Pilots Aware of this Phenomenon

8. The Decide Model Was developed to help pilots organize their thoughts to prevent overlooking factors that may be important

9. Recent Issues That are Emerging “Out-of-the-Loop” phenomenon Complacency Lack of Knowledge of Automation Poor Situational Awareness Poor Situational Assessment

10. HOW DO THE AIRLINES DEAL WITH THIS ?

11. MEMORY ITEMS CHECKLISTS SCENARIO BASED TRAINING

12. “FITS” FAA Industry Training Standards The initiative has been guided by a visionary group of FAA administrators, educators, and industry

13. “SAFER” SATS Aerospace Flight Education Research NASA Research Cooperative Agreement NCCI - 03032

15. Sixteen MTSU students began their flight training in “glass” in DA-40 aircraft using the FAA-approved training program in August 2004

17. Private Pilot Bottlenecks Archival data 1999-2004

18. Instrument Pilot Bottlenecks Archival data 1999-2004

19. Setbacks Comparison Caution: Preliminary data using small numbers Traditional SAFER Pre Solo 77 of 449 17.1%59 of 97 60.8% Pvt & X-C 169 of 449 37.6%15 of 97 15.4% Instrument 203 of 449 45.2%23 of 97 23.7%

20. The results are still preliminary! However, early data tends to indicate that pilots have fewer setbacks over the entire VFR/IFR training using new technology and a scenario-based syllabus

21. The first student in our second cohort passed on her combined check ride on June 15 th, 2005 She had a total of 55 airplane hours !

22. IF WE ARE GOING TO BE CERTIFICATING PILOTS WITH FEWER HOURS WHAT KIND OF PILOTS WILL THEY BE ?

23. PHASE TWO “ THE EFFECTS OF A “FITS” TRAINING PROGRAM THAT EMPHASIZES SCENARIO BASED FLYING ON PILOT DECISION MAKING SKILLS “

24. METHODOLOGY 16 Students enrolled in the “SAFER” project: COMBINED GROUP 24 Pilots who had obtained their instrument rating within the last 3 months TRADITIONAL GROUP

25. METHOLODOLOGY The “combined” group were administered pencil and paper tests throughout their flight training The “traditional group were administered pencil and paper tests within three months following the successful completion of their check ride

26. METHODOLOGY All “SAFER” students also enrolled in a ground class that combined both private pilot and instrument knowledge This class placed a major emphasis on Automation (e.g. mode awareness, automation traps) Situational Awareness GPS technology GPS programming skills CBT using real flight scenario’s Critical thinking skills using NTSB reports of fatal aircraft accidents as examples

27. DEMOGRAPHICS AGE: Combined19.6 + 1.6 Traditional20.7 + 1.7

28. DEMOGRAPHICS Total Airplane Hours: Combined90.8 + 5.0 *** Traditional176.8 + 12 Total Flight Hours: Combined90.8 + 5.0 *** Traditional188.75 + 10 *** = p <0.01

29. DEMOGRAPHICS Total Instrument Hours: Combined44.3 + 2.0 Traditional38.3 + 3.0 Total Actual Hours: Combined6.1 + 1.8 Traditional4.6 + 0.7

30. DEMOGRAPHICS Total PIC Hours: Combined6.1 + 0.6 *** Traditional125.6 + 14.0 *** = p < 0.01

31. Personal IFR Comfort Questionnaire How comfortable are you to fly alone in the IFR environment? How comfortable are you to fly alone in IMC ? How comfortable are you to shoot an ILS approach to minimums ? What are your “personal minimums” ?

32. Responses 1 = Not comfortable 2 = Somewhat comfortable 3 = comfortable 4 = very comfortable 5 = Absolutely comfortable, no problem!

33. RESULTS Not Comfortable flying alone in the IFR environment Traditional 18 % Combined 0 % **** *** = p < 0.01

34. RESULTS Not Comfortable flying alone in IMC Traditional 38 % Combined 14 % **** *** = p < 0.01

35. RESULTS Not Comfortable shooting an ILS to minimums Traditional 16 % Combined 0 % **** *** = p < 0.01

36. RESULTS Would you feel comfortable using a GPS when flying IMC Traditional = Yes (48 %) *** Combined = Yes (100 %) **** = p < 0.01

37. RESULTS What are your personal minimums ? Visibility: Traditional 2.07 +.18 Combined 3.50 +.06 **** *** = p < 0.01

38. RESULTS What are your personal minimums ? Clouds: Traditional 1,350 + 223 Combined 2,100 + 585 **** *** = p < 0.01

39. RESULTS What are your personal minimums ? Visibility: Never Thought about it ! Traditional 68 % Combined 18 % **** *** = p < 0.01

40. Self-Efficacy: TAA I have confidence in my ability to fly a TAA 1 = to no extent5 = to a great extent Students were assessed at: Beginning of flight training, Mid-flight training, and at their completion

41. RESULTS Beginning 4 – 5 = 58 % *** (3.70) Mid-training 4 – 5 = 100 % (4.75) End4 – 5 = 100 % (4.75) Did not complete the training: 3.10 * Did complete the training: 3.70 *** = p < 0.01 * = p > 0.05

42. Self-Efficacy: Single Pilot Resource Management (SRM) I have confidence in my ability to perform SRM 1 = to no extent5 = to a great extent Students were assessed at: Beginning of flight training, Mid-flight training, and at their completion

43. RESULTS Beginning 4 – 5 = 65 % *** (3.80) Mid-training 4 – 5 = 100 % (4.75) End4 – 5 = 80 % (4.16) Did not complete the training: 2.70 * Did complete the training: 3.80 *** = p < 0.01 * = p > 0.05

44. Other Data Analysis Pending Any relationship between cognitive demands and “choke points” Any relationship between self-efficacy and quality of TAA pilot Follow up study at 3-6 months

45. SUMMARY 1) Are results indicate that pilots have fewer setbacks over the entire VFR/IFR training using the FITS syllabus 2) Pilots trained using a combined private / instrument ground school that focuses on decision making, automation issues, and navigational issues in TAA aircraft, in combination with a FITS flight training syllabus emphasizing scenario based flying, are: 1) More comfortable with their automation 2) More comfortable with their IFR skills 3) More conservative with IFR decision making

46. QUESTIONS