1. The Water-Food-Energy Nexus in transboundary basins - more benefits for sharing Holger Hoff Stockholm Environment Institute Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Nexus Lecture Series, Cologne, 17 October 2013

2. Nexus: What is it? Why do we need it? How to implement it? in transboundary basins in the Jordan River in the Blue Nile

3. What is the nexus? previous examples of integrated approaches -ecosystem approach -agro-ecology or agro-forestry -integrated water resources management (IWRM) integrated or systemic approaches across sectors and resources: generating co-benefits, increasing overall resource use efficiencies, mobilizing untapped potentials, BUT: mostly driven by individual sectors, lessons not learned, not continued no transfer & upscaling e.g. via recycling, cascading use of resources, multi-functional systems, improved river basin and landscape configurations etc.

4. Why do we need a nexus approach? a resource constrained and environmentally limited world: growing demand for natural resources, biomass (food, feed, fibres, fuel….) and other ecosystem services degradation of resources / ecosystems + climate change risk of transgressing sustainability thresholds, from local to planetary boundaries reconciling economic development with future food /water / energy /environmental security & resilience

5. How to implement a nexus approach? baseline assessment: resource locations, availabilities, (cross-resource) demands and productivities toolbox for scenario assessments: WEAP (water), LEAP (energy) entry points for mainstreaming nexus principles towards policy coherence, e.g. revisions of strategies / plans economic incentives for reducing negative externalities, e.g. resource prices, subsidies, payments for environmental services partnerships / dialogues / platforms level playing field, bridging institutions

6. A nexus approach in transboundary basins 45% of land mass, 40% of the world‘s population often lack of cooperation existing transboundary cooperations are primarily sectoral, e.g. on specific waterworks or water uses, -> zero-sum games nexus: multiple-resource / multiple-sector agreements, more benefits for sharing, win-win solutions let‘s identify initial examples of cooperation on reservoirs & hydropower agricultural water management (water harvesting, re-allocations, irrigation..) land management for carbon sequestration (CDM, REDD+…)

7. A nexus approach in transboundary basins starting from UNECE Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes - “Water Convention” a holistic approach: preventing adverse transboundary impacts managing shared waters using the ecosystems approach and restoring ecosystems equitable water use

8. A nexus approach in the Jordan River

9. equitable water use? A nexus approach in the Jordan River contributions (million m 3 / year) withdrawals (million m 3 / year) Jordan530320 Syria435260 Israel160>700 Palestian Authority 15560 Lebanon12010 Phillips et al. 2006 meaning what?

10. A nexus approach in the Jordan River nexus as an alternative to pharaonic projects, such as Red Sea – Dead Sea Canal with large scale desalination and/or nuclear power

11. A nexus approach in the Jordan River baseline assessment: water distribution, availability, demand, productivity starting from rainfall (improved rainfed agriculture) Menzel et al. 2011 -> more energy efficient irrigation configuration (additional co-benefits from saving energy) restoring environmental flows (additional co-benefits from tourism) and taking into account the topography

12. A nexus approach in the Jordan River Baseline assessment: water distribution, availability, demand, productivity solar power and desalination (co-benefits from technology transfer – also to GCC countries) Dead Sea starting from rainfall (improved rainfed agriculture) -> more energy efficient irrigation configuration (additional co-benefits from saving energy) restoring environmental flows (additional co-benefits from tourism) and taking into account the topography future diversification of benefits gets will get easier: riparians successively reduce their dependency on Jordan River water: only 2% of employment is in agriculture (for comparison in Egypt: 30%) ¾ of food demand is met from imports (Egypt: ~ 40%) increasing diversification of water sources (desalination)

13. A nexus approach in the Jordan River nexus tools for quantifying tradeoffs & synergies (scenario assessment) e.g. participatory WEAP development for assessing systemic effects of different interventions (Hoff et al. 2011) Hoff et al. 2012

14. A nexus approach in the Nile

15. and from topography -> more energy-efficient food production (benefits from reduced pumping) baseline assessment: water distribution, availability, demand, productivity FAO 2011 and from aridity -> more water-efficient food production (benefits from reduced irrigation demand) e.g. starting from rainfall (improved rainfed agriculture)

16. A nexus approach in the Nile The Nile Egypt‘s lifeline Phillips et al. 2006 equitable water use?

17. nexus as an alternative to pharaonic projects such as the Sudd wetland drainage A nexus approach in the Nile Jonglei Canal (1974 – 1984)

18. A nexus approach in the Nile potential co-benefits: higher water productivity in agriculture and in power production sediment reduction flood protection improved navigation securing environmental flows Potential for further improved resource management through collaboration (see MWRI in Egypt) evaporative losses from > 10 km 3 per year Assuan dam -> large potential for optimizing water storage

19. power links and power trade: Eastern African Power Pool A nexus approach in the Nile sharing benefits beyond water: energy production Ethiopia (GDP per capita 6 times smaller than Egypt’s) has large hydropower potential additional co-benefits from: - reduced spendings on oil imports - risk spreading through diversification of power sources (= resilieince)

20. A nexus approach in the Nile Karimi et al. 2010 sharing benefits beyond water: food production large agricultural water productivity gradient across the basin (factor 10) Ethiopia is one of the main target countries for foreign direct investments (Bossio et al. 2012) (including Egyptian investments) foreign direct investment for improved basin-wide resource use efficiency (including green water) (Hoff et al. 2012)

21. A nexus approach in the Nile nexus tools for demonstrating benefits quantitatively (ongoing project in the upper Blue Nile) “States cooperate when the net benefits of cooperation are perceived to be greater than the net benefits of non-cooperation” Grey et. al. 2009

22. A nexus approach in the Nile starting from the Blue Nile about 2/3 rd of total Nile flow to Egypt comparing business-as-usual (BAU) and the Ethiopian Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) Lake Tana WEAP model

23. Initial WEAP model for Lake Tana m.a.s.l. critical lake level: navigation, fishing, wetland conservation

24. Initial WEAP model for Lake Tana and Beles „corridor“ water limited biofuel and hydropower scenarios Lachaut 2012

25. Initial LEAP model for Ethiopia total energy demand for intensified agriculture (GTP) de Strasser 2013 policy support through quantitative tradeoff analysis

26. RESOURCE PRIMARY SECONDARY DISTRIBUTION FINAL USE ENERGY Geothermal Resources Geothermal Power Plants T&D Electricity Uses Hydropower Plants Importation of Oil Processing Transport Distribution Fertilizer Production Fertile Land Biomass Biofuel Production Other uses WATER Precipitation Catchment Dams/Storage Groundwater transportation Pumping Irrigation Runoff Other Uses Groundwater Extraction Canals Distribution Gravity Irrigation CLIMATE Temperature Evaporation Transpiration GHGs Emissions Humidity LAND Forest Forestation Wood Production Urban Areas Desertic Land Urbanization Industrialization Infrastructure Crops Production Fertile Land Agriculture Biofuel Production Livestock Production 26 CLEWs framework : de Strasser 2013

27. How to institutionalize a nexus approach? Institutional (social) network analysis for the upper Blue Nile: A nexus approach in the Nile Stein et al. 2013