1. World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water Strengthening Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate Services to support Risk Assessment and Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems WMO Initiative in the Caribbean Maryam Golnaraghi Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme 1 April 2011 Miami, FL www.wmo.int WMO

2. Strengthening national and regional institutional capacities for delivery of Meteorological, Hydrological, Marine and Climate Services to support…. Risk TransferRisk Assessment Historical Hazard databases Hazard statistics Climate forecasting and forward looking hazard trend analysis Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk analysis tools Preparedness (saving lives): early warning systems emergency planning and response Prevention (Reduction of economic losses): Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) CATastrophe insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Risk Reduction Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training across agencies Alignment of clear policies, legislation, planning, resources at national to local Levels (Multi-sectoral, Multi-agency) 3 2 5 4 1 6

3. Early Warning Systems Require Coordination Across Many Levels and Agencies National to local disaster risk reduction plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms 1 2 34

4. National Government DRR coordination mechanisms Meteorological Hydrological Geological Marine Health, Agricuture (etc.) Capacity Development and Coordinated National Technical Agencies feedback Community Prepared warnings feedback 2 4 3 5 5 4 4 5 There is need for investments in all components of Early Warning Systems ! Local Government responsible for emergency preparedness and response Aligned policies, plans, resources, coordination 1 warnings

5. WMO in cooperation with nearly 20 UN and international agencies and their network of experts has facilitated the documentation of Good Practices and Guidelines on Institutional Partnerships in Early Warning Systems with Multi-Hazard Approach “Guidelines on institutional partnership and cooperation in Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems” being published in 2010 Next Phase: Concept of Operations Guidelines on Institutional Aspects EWS with Multi-Hazard Approach Planning, legislative, financing, Institutional Coordination and Roles of NMHS Synthesis of First set of 7 Good Practices (4 more in the pipeline) Role of National Metrological and Hydrological Services Bangladesh Cyclone Preparednes s Programme Cuba Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System France and FWI “Vigilan ce System” Shanghai Multi-Hazard Emergency Preparednes s Programme USA Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Germany The Warning Management of the Deutscher Wetterdienst Japan Multi- Hazard Early Warning System

6. 10 Basic principles for effective Early Warning Systems 1.Political recognition of the benefits of EWS along with effective planning, legislation and budgeting 2.Effective EWS are built upon four components: (i)) hazard detection, monitoring and forecasting; (ii) analyzing risks and incorporation of risk information in emergency planning and warnings; (iii) disseminating timely and “authoritative” warnings with clarity on the responsibilities and mandate for issuance of warnings; (iv) community emergency planning and preparedness and the ability to activate emergency plans to prepare and respond 3.Roles and responsibilities of all EWS stakeholders and their collaboration mechanisms clearly defined and documented 4.Capacities aligned with resources across national to local levels (sustainability) 5.Hazard, exposure and vulnerability information are used to carry- out risk assessments at different levels

7. 6.Clear, consistent and actionable hazard warnings, with risk information and issued from a single recognized authoritative source 7.Timely, reliable, redundant and sustainable warning dissemination mechanisms 8.Emergency response plans targeted to the individual needs of the vulnerable communities, authorities and emergency responders 9.Regular training and education programmes in risk awareness and emergency response actions 10.Effective feedback mechanisms throughout levels of the EWS for system improvement over time 10 Basic principles for effective Early Warning System (Continued)

8. Coordination and Cooperation with National Hydro-Met Services Increasing Level of coordination with technical agencies for early detection, monitoring and development of warnings Type IType IIType III Hazard fully under the mandate of NMHS e.g. strong winds, strong rainfall, snow/ice, hail, tropical cyclone Hazard under joint mandate with another technical agency e.g. floods, landslides, heat/health etc. Hazard under mandate of other agencies but NMHS contribute e.g. locust, health epidemic, man- made hazards Increasing Level of coordination with civil protection and risk management agencies for issuance of warnings

9. Reduction of Risks: Life, economics sectors: DRM and civil protection, agriculture, water resource management, infrastructure and planning, urban development, health insurance and financial markets, etc Research and modeling Observations and data Forecasting and analysis tools Regional aspects Products and Service Delivery International aspects Capacity Building Need for Strengthening National and Regional Operational Capacities National aspects, with consideration for evolving DRR policies/legislation/coodination and planning

10. Initiatives and pilot projects in RA IV Central America The Caribbean

11. Early Warning Systems with Multi-Hazard Approach Pilot Project – Central America Pilot Countries: –Costa Rica (World Bank Funded) –El Salvador (NOAA – USAID funded) –Mexico (Government and NOAA – USAID funded) National multi-agency cooperation (Met/Hydro/DRM) Multi-level (Regional, National, Local) Focus: Flash Flood-Riverine Flood Warning Systems Partners: WMO, NOAA-NWS, UNDP, World Bank

12. The Caribbean

13. Overall Objective Strengthening Meteorological, Hydrological and climate services at national and regional levels to support risk assessment and multi- Hazard Early Warning Systems Focus sectors: DRM, Agriculture and Food Security, Water Resource Management, Planning and Development Sectors

14. Where ? Strengthened coordination and cooperation across British, French, Dutch and Spanish Speaking countries and territories Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, the Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bermudas, the British Caribbean Territories, the Caribbean Netherlands, Cuba, Curacao, Dominica, the Dominican Republic, the French West Indies, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint-Marteen, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago.

15. Who? Key Stakeholders in Multi-Hazard EWS in the Caribbean National: National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) and Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Agencies and other key ministries of the beneficiary countries. Other EWS stakeholders such as media, economic sectors (health, agriculture,) (TBD) Regional: Regional centers and agencies of CARICOM: CDEMA, CMO and its CIMH; WMO RA IV and its DRR Task Team, WMO RA IV Hurricane Committee, the WMO RSMC – Miami Hurricane Center Regional agencies and platforms: ACS, OAS, the Eastern Caribbean Donor Group, Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) Other regional partners (TBD) International and donors : UN and International Agencies: WMO, UNESCO-IOC, UN-ISDR, UNDP, IFRC, etc. Bi-lat donors and development banks: IADB, World Bank, USAID/OFDA, Canada (CIDA), Finland (MFA), Spain (ACE), Japan (JICA), UK (DFID), EU, Italy, France, etc.

16. What? Topics for Strengthening Multi-Hazard EWS at National and Regional Policy, legal, legislative issues pertaining to DRR and role of NMHS Risk Assessment and Modeling, including data management and exchange issues Operational Cooperation of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and Disaster Risk Management Stakeholders (DRM agencies and other ministries and technical agencies) Observing, Monitoring, Forecasting capacities Coordination of Watch and Warning Systems in the region

17. Long-term Capacity Development (8 years) with phased project management (2-yr cycle) 2010- Q1 2011: Identification of priorities programmatic and technical aspects of long-term capacity development and phase-I project priorities Q2 2011- Q2 2012: –Identification of Phase-I (multi-component) project, development of implementation plan and project governance –Institutional mapping and partnerships for implementation (national and regional) –Resource mobilisation strategy and coordination with the donors –Regional mechanisms for multi-stakeholder coordination, sharing progress, experiences, monitoring and evaluation Q3 2012: Phase-I Project (multi-component) to be Launched How?

18. Roadmap for the project design to strengthen Caribbean Risk Assessment and MHEWS capacities Consultations, Major Milestones and Timeline Consultants’ missions in the region and assessment of all assessment and projects June – September 2010 MHEWS Training Workshop – Costa Rica March 2010 Consultation Cayman Is. November 2010 Develop phase I project proposals, implementation plan, resource mobilizations and identification of forums for on-going regional dialogue with Members, development partners and donors 2010 2011 MHEWS Technical Cooperation Workshop Barbados November 22 Consultation Jamaica December 2010 MH Forecasting meeting Hurricane Committee - Cayman Islands 7 March 2011 Phase I Project Launch 2012 http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/d rr/events/MHEWSCostaRica/inde x_en.html http://www.wmo.int/pages/ prog/drr/events/Barbados/ index_en.html Official Regional Meeting to endorse Phase I project proposal Warning Communicati on/CAP PWS workshop - Miami March/April 2011

19. Linking to priorities of regional DRR strategy and platforms CARICOM –CDEMA – Comprehensive Disaster Management (CDM) Regional arrangements in the Caribbean

20. Outcomes to Date: Reference document produced for programme and project development … National Roster: Directors and experts from Met and Hydro services, DRM, Planning, Agriculture and food security and water resource management sector –Hydro network needs to be mapped in more details ) –Agriculture, water resource management sectors need to be mapped further Regional Roster: Regional agencies supporting DRM Mapping of assessments and projects: in the region and opportunities for leveraging Relationship of Met/hydro/DRM agencies countries/territories mapped Identification of capacities, remaining gaps and needs not addressed through existing projects Priorities for long-term capacity development (national and regional) Priorities for phase-I project (multi-component)

21. Other Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate- related Priority Hazards Identified Overall priority hazards for both subregions: Tropical Cyclones, Storm Surge, High Waves, Flash and Riverine Flooding, Heavy Precipitation, Drought, Land/Mud Slides and Volcanic Eruption Specific hazard priories vary by country/territory based on geography, orography, seasonal patters, etc.

22. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services National Disaster Risk Reduction Stakeholders : Meteorological Services Core Components Products & Services Observations and monitoringOperational Forecasting Hazard data & metadata Hazard Analysis Public Historical data bases (non real- time) Real-time Data Data Flow Forecasting tools Real-Time Data Products Sector-specific Forecasts, Warnings & Advisories Government Sectors/Ministries: Expert DRM/EWS Services Infrastructure (Observation and forecasting, etc) Data Management Systems Product Development processes Telecommunication Infrastructure and dissemination to Users Quality Management System (QMS) & Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) (internal and with users) Commercial Entities: Human Resource Development & Training Public Outreach & Education Service Delivery Feedback Government / sector Outreach & Education

23. Type I NMS Type II NMS DRM Agency III DRM Agency II DRM Agency I Type III No NMS Relationship Type II: NMS 1 Supports a DRM agency in another island Relationship Type II: NMS 1 Supports a DRM agency in another island Relationship Type I: NMS 1 Directly supports their own DRM agency Relationship Type I: NMS 2 Directly supports their own DRM agency Techni cal: NMS 1 Supports NMS 2 Techni cal: NMS 1 Supports NMS 2 Regional agencies and centers such as RSMC-Miami Hurricane Center, CMO/CIMH, etc. supporting NMSs Regional agencies and centers such as CDEMA and others supporting DRM agencies Different relationships between Disaster Management Agencies and Meteorological Services Mapped Type I Antigua & B. Bahamas Barbados Belize Cayman Cuba Curaçao Dominican Rep. Guadeloupe Guyana Haiti Jamaica Martinique St Lucia Suriname Trinidad & T.

24. NMS I Type II NMS DRM Agency III DRM Agency II DRM Agency I Type III No NMS Relationship Type II: NMS 1 Supports a DRM agency in another island Relationship Type II: NMS 1 Supports a DRM agency in another island Relationship Type I: NMS 1 Directly supports their own DRM agency Relationship Type I: NMS 2 Directly supports their own DRM agency Regional agencies and centers such as RSMC-Miami Hurricane Center, CMO/CIMH, etc. supporting NMSs Regional agencies and centers such as CDEMA and others supporting DRM agencies Type II Barbados Dominica St Vincent & G. Curaçao Aruba St Marteen Trinidad & T. Grenada Different relationships between Disaster Management Agencies and Meteorological Services Mapped

25. Type III Antigua & B. Anguilla BVI Montserrat St Kitts & N. Bahamas Turks and C. Curaçao Saba/St Eustatius Bonaire Guadeloupe St Martin/St Barth Type I NMS Type II NMS DRM Agency III DRM Agency II DRM Agency I Type III No NMS Relationship Type II: NMS 1 Supports a DRM agency in another island Relationship Type II: NMS 1 Supports a DRM agency in another island Relationship Type I: NMS 1 Directly supports their own DRM agency Relationship Type I: NMS 2 Directly supports their own DRM agency Regional agencies and centers such as RSMC-Miami Hurricane Center, CMO/CIMH, etc. supporting NMSs Regional agencies and centers such as CDEMA and others supporting DRM agencies Different relationships between Disaster Management Agencies and Meteorological Services Mapped

26. Mapped and reviewed existing assessments, projects and programmes Visits, consultations throughout the region Technical Cooperation Workshop in Barbados to complement information Various Assessments and Projects identified and mapped, gaps and redundancies identified Major gaps fall at the interfaces Need for integrated approach to project Sustainability of capacities

27. RECOMMENDATIONS AND NEXT STEPS (1/3) Capacity development projects should focus on: HAZARD/RISK ASSESSMENT -National Multi-stakeholder mechanism and mapping -Data rescue and hazard/risk analysis capacity development (databases, metadata, data rescue, hazard analysis and mapping) OPERATIONAL COOPERATION (Multi-sectoral, DRM, NMHS, DRM, other EWS) -Review & update policies and legal frameworks (linking to CDEMAlegislation models) -Mapping multi-sectoral institution coordination (QMS, SOP) -Multi-agency mechanisms for needs and requirements identification -Strengthened communication protocols and mechanisms -Feedback mechanisms

28. OBSERVATION MONITORING AND FORECASTING -Strengthen observation and monitoring capacities -Strengthen and expand forecasting capacities - (tropical cyclone, strong winds, heavy rainfall, flashfloods, landslides, coastal surge and inundation, drought) (leveraging with Tsunami) -Regional coordination mechanisms for monitoring and forecasting (linking to HC, RSMCs, CMO/CIMH, etc) OVERARCHING CAPACITIES (QMS, Training, Infrastructure, Education ) -Develop and implement comprehensive QMS and SOPs -Strengthen communication networks at regional and national levels -Strengthen training programme supporting EWS -Develop multimedia educationnal programmes RECOMMENDATIONS AND NEXT STEPS (2/3) Capacity development projects should focus on:

29. WATCH AND WARNING SYSTEMS AND COORDINATION AT NATIONAL AND REGIONAL LEVEL -Strengthen real-time coordination among technical agencies -Strengthen national multi-sectoral and multi-level WWS -Implement mechanisms and procedures for real-time coordination on warning issuance and dissemination -Enhance sharing of good practices -Leverage opportunities accross hydrological, meteorological and tsunami warning systems RECOMMENDATIONS AND NEXT STEPS (3/3) Capacity development projects should focus on: Document of gaps, needs and priorities available for final comments by December 16th 2010

30. 1) Establishment of policies, legislation and institutional arrangements with clarification of role of national meteorological and hydrological services within different arrangements - Partnerships 2) Meteorological, Hydrological and marine and coastal related hazard databases data and hazard analysis to support risk assessment 3) Coordinated Risk-based EWS for other priority hazards –Strengthened operational meteorological, hydrological and climate forecasts (regional/national) –Operational cooperation of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services to support DRM agencies and economic sectors (QMS and SOPs) -Risk analysis and warning decision tools -Warning dissemination and communication - Capacity development and training 5) Coordinated Multi-Hazards early warnings in the region Areas requiring long-term development as identified from extensive consultations

31. Resource Mobilization Opportunities Leveraging existing bi-lateral cooperations (Finland, USA, Italy, etc.) and projects R3I EC-ACP, Regional Track of Pilot Project for Climate Resilience (IABD, World Bank) Discussions underway with CDB, CIDA, USAID/OFDA Others being identified

32. Priority Areas for Design of Phase-I Project Component 1: Policy, legislative and clarification of role and mandates of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services Component 2: Strengthening of Forecasting Capacities for other priority hazards (nowcasting to longer-term) –Strengthening of regional operational products and services –Training Component 3: Warning dissemination, communication, CAP Component 4: Initiation of QMS and SOPs of NMS – with a service delivery approach (with DRM agencies first) Component 5: Pilot on data rescue, data management, observational interoperability, data exchange and hazard analysis within the PPCR Regional Programme

33. Proposed approach For Phase I Project Operational Capacity Development in Early Warning Systems for Severe Weather and Flooding (1/3) Main thrusts: –Improve technical capacity for forecasting the priority hazards of the regions of the Caribbean –Improve Warning Services for the priority hazards –Develop QMS/SOPS with DRM agencies and improving of contingency planning based on improved forecasts and warnings –Improve warning dissemination and communication –Develop feedback mechanisms for improving products and processes Priority Hazards: –Tropical Cyclones (damaging winds, storm surges, extreme accumulation of storm precipitation) –Heavy precipitation –Flash floods –Coastal Inundation (Storm Surge, Tsunami)

34. Proposed approach For Phase I Project Operational Capacity Development in Early Warning Systems for Severe Weather and Flooding (2/3) Review of contingency plans (or development of new ones) based on workshops engaging National Met, National Hydro and National DRM agencies, Develop and implement a regional operational cooperation framework with –clear regional and national components for supporting the forecasting of heavy precipitation, and flash floods.

35. Proposed approach For Phase I Project Operational Capacity Development in Early Warning Systems for Severe Weather and Flooding (3/3) Hands on training and capacity development at national level and development of SOPs with the disaster risk management agencies Development of Common Alert Protocols Strengthening of NMHS websites and training with DRM and media Establishment of the feedback mechanisms for monitoring and evaluating and improvement at different levels (SOPs, products and services, etc), products, dissemination and communication mechanisms

36. Proposed approach For Phase I Project Institutional – Development of National Road map for strengthening of Met/hydro/climate Services with in comprehensive DRR Framework Facilitate multi-sectoral National Policy/Legislation dialogues and risk management workshops on needs for strengthening of meteorological, hydrological and climate services within a comprehensive Disaster Risk Management Framework, Goals: – Address institutional roles and responsibilities, –Institutional coordination arrangements –Establishment of national focal points within the agencies. Frame other regional cooperation initiatives in the context of needs identified

37. Special Expert Session Early Warning Dissemination and Communication Issues (as part of the Public Weather Services Training Session in RA IV) Opportunities and Challenges

38. Issues to be discussed here Key Stakeholders in the region have been engaged Changing approach to EWS (Multi-stakeholder, multi-level, risk based) Reflection of the role of NMHS and other agencies in the legal and regulatory framework (accountability and liability) Public vs protected information Authoritative sources of warnings and emerging warning centers Benefits of CAP Role of media Implication for the operational cooperation of NMHS and DRM Role of NMHS regarding public dissemination (within the EWS framework) and ability to disseminate to public and authorities (What, to whon, when and how)

39. Long-term Capacity Development (8 years) with phased project management (2-yr cycle) 2010- Q1 2011: Identification of priorities programmatic and technical aspects of long-term capacity development and phase-I project priorities Q2 2011- Q2 2012: –Identification of Phase-I (multi-component) project, development of implementation plan and project governance –Institutional mapping and partnerships for implementation (national and regional) –Resource mobilisation strategy and coordination with the donors –Regional mechanisms for multi-stakeholder coordination, sharing progress, experiences, monitoring and evaluation Q3 2012: Phase-I Project (multi-component) to be Launched What’s Next?

40. Thank You

41. Where ? Strengthened coordination and cooperation across British, French, Dutch and Spanish Speaking countries and territories Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, the Bahamas, Barbados, Bermudas, the British Caribbean Territories, the Caribbean Netherlands, Cuba, Curacao, Dominica, the Dominican Republic, the French West Indies, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint-Marteen, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and Trinidad and Tobago also including Beliz and Surinam

42. Who? Key Stakeholders in the region have been engaged National: Beneficiaries: National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) and Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Agencies and other key ministries of the beneficiary countries. Other ministries, specifically, finance and planning, agriculture, water resource management and coastal zone management Contributing Countries: USA, Finland, France, Canada, Spain, others (TBD) Regional: Regional centers and agencies of CARICOM: CDEMA, CMO and its CIMH; WMO RA IV and its DRR and Hydrology Task Teams, WMO RA IV Hurricane Committee, the WMO RSMC – Miami Hurricane Center Regional agencies and platforms: ACS, OAS, Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) International and donors : UN and International Agencies: WMO, UNDP, UNESCO-IOC, etc. Bi-lat donors and development banks: IADB, World Bank, USAID/OFDA, Canada (CIDA), Finland (MFA), Spain (ACE), Japan (JICA), others (TBD) etc.