1. Analysis for ENPI countries of Social and Economic Benefits of Enhanced Environmental Protection EuropeAid DCI-ENV/2009/ Air Quality (AQ)
Alistair Hunt
Department of Economics
University of Bath UK
+44(0)

2. Overview of AQ presentation
AQ as an environmental hazard
AQ in the ENPI East Regional context
Outline of Method
Results
Qualitative
Quantitative
Conclusions: Next steps for policy use
Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau

3. Air Quality – Environmental Hazard
AQ increasingly recognised as significant hazard in most countries in the world, including all ENPI East countries.
Accumulating evidence showing adverse effects of air-borne pollutants on human health, agricultural crops, man-made environments (damage to building materials) and ecosystems.
Impacts do not respect national boundaries.
Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau

4. Air Quality – Sources of pollution
Air pollutants may be released by either stationary sources (e.g. a coal-fired power plant), or by moving sources (e.g. cars, buses)
Common pollutants include particulate matter, NOx, SO2, CO, carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (O3), (transport, energy combustion), lead (Pb), mercury (Hg), heavy metals (industry), etc.
Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau

5. Pollutant emissions (% of total) from various sources in Europe
NOx
NMVOC
NH3
N2O
CO2 CO
CH4
Industrial power generation 60 20
0.4
0.1
6.1 33
0.8
0.2
Other industry and waste disposal 25 13 31
2.4 37 24 17 52
Road transport 7 63 39
0.9 5. 69
Domestic heating and cooking 3 2 15 10 1
Agriculture and animals
0.3 16 96 48 45
Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau

6. Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau
Regional Context
Air pollutants are emitted principally from
Heavy industries in all ENPI East countries (e.g. Ukraine: metallurgical industries, mining, and oil processing sectors)
Transport: In all ENPI East countries, rising levels of car ownership combined with poor levels of maintenance of an ageing car fleet
Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau

7. Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau
Regional Context
Moldova: large majority of cars are not in line with technical requirements (Euro 2 and Euro 3) and are old.
More than 90% of the vehicles in Moldova are older than 10 years (MMoT).
The law prohibiting import of cars older than 7 years has been amended and increased the limit from 7 to 10 years.
Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau

8. Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau
Regional Context
Sources and Impacts predominantly in urban areas, where residential areas close to industry
Trends: generally in line with levels of economic activity, though signs of de-coupling as technologies improve
Previous studies in other world regions, plus ENPI national studies, show significant benefits of air pollutant reductions
Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau

9. Pollution emissions by country in 2005 (thousand tonnes)
NH3
NMVOC
NOx
PM2.5
PMco
PM10
SO2
Armenia 17
101 6 16 10 26 8
Azerbaijan 64
318 76 18 9 27
135
Belarus
165
366 84 29 14 43
134
Georgia 39 68 7 3 5
Moldova 21 73 25 46
Russian Federation
1068
8394
4297
947
569
1516
6710
Ukraine
306
838
544
305
202
507
863
Total (rounded)
1680
10159
5036
1348
827
2175
7863
Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau

10. Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau
Project Method (1)
Benefits assessed under the project: resulting from 50% reductions from projected baseline levels of PM10, (transport) NMVOCs, (industry) NH3, (agriculture) SO2 and NOx (energy & transport) in 2020.
based on equivalent reductions typically required in countries adopting the EU AQ Framework Directive. ((Directive 2008/50/EC)
The selected pollutants account for majority of benefits in previous assessments
Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau

11. Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau
Method (2)
Qualitative assessment
Describe various forms of impacts resulting from AQ
Categorise benefits in terms of:
Economic
Social
Environmental
Health
Data from in-country reviews & other assessments
Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau

12. Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau
Methods (3)
Quantitative assessment
Outputs from integrated software tool called EcoSense - assesses impacts resulting from the exposure to airborne pollutants: human health, crops, building materials. (Note: under-estimates since does not include all air pollutants).
modelling and the calculation of impact costs follow the Impact Pathway Approach (IPA).
Worked example in BAM for policy makers
Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau

13. Transport and chemical Transformation
Methods (4)
Transport and chemical Transformation
Emissions
Monetary Evaluation
Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau

14. Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau
Methods (5)
Derive Unit value per tonne of pollutant
Unit value X Number of tonnes reduced
= Total value of benefits (health, crops, materials)
Air Quality Unit Values: Euro per ton of pollutant (€2008 PPP)
NH3
NMVOC
NOX
PM10
SO2
€/ton (mean)
8,400 30
4,700
32,400
9,500
€/ton (range)
,000
1, ,600
8, ,600
3, ,600
Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau

15. Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau
Methods (6)
Impacts – relative importance (% of total):
mortality (70 per cent);
morbidity (20 per cent);
crops (6 per cent);
materials (4 per cent).
To express the results in physical terms:
total benefits apportioned to these splits
divide by unit value.
(Central unit values for mortality and morbidity are €1.1 million and €0.2 million, respectively, but need adjusting for PPP).
Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau

16. Results from the BAs for ENPI East countries (1): qualitative
Environmental benefits
Description
Ecosystem condition improvements
Reduced acidification from lower SO2 and NOx emissions
Reduced climate change impacts on impacts from lower SO2 and NOx emissions
Reduced damage to vegetation from low level ozone
Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau

17. Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau
Results (2)
Health benefits
Description
Lower incidence of acute and chronic disease
Reductions in SO2 imply lower incidence of cardiovascular and respiratory disease
Reductions in PM10 concentrations imply lower emergency-room visits due to asthma, and also hospital admissions on the grounds of respiratory diseases
Reductions in NOx, when combined with ozone, organic compounds, particulates and sunlight result in corresponding reductions of photochemical ‘smog’ that otherwise cause respiratory impairment, irritation of the eyes and mucous membrane, with asthma patients and young children.
Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau

18. Results (2b): case study
Carcinogenic risk for the population of a metallurgical centre, Achinsk in Krasnoyarsk region (Siberia)
at present levels of air pollution, the number of cases of cancer will amount to 48 cases during the next 70 years, or 0.66 cases per year.
Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau

19. Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau
Results (3)
Social benefits
Description
Reduced damage to cultural heritage, including historic building surfaces in city centres
Black smoke from traffic is a prime cause of discolouring of buildings, including public buildings of important social cultural value, such as monuments, historic buildings, churches, museums
Exposure of building materials to SO2 deposition from acidification results in premature ageing.
Reduced blackening and erosion of surfaces (from SOx and NOx emissions from traffic fuel use), can improve the social appreciation and use of city centres and cultural heritage.
Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau

20. Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau
Results (4)
Economic benefits
Description
‘Green technology’ industries
Increase in demand for products and processes that result in lower air pollution emissions, and subsequent employment opportunities, as long as such industries are domestic.
Increased visits to improved landscapes and natural areas
Increase in tourism and associated expenditures in local areas.
Lower material cleaning costs
Reductions in expenditures on building surfaces soiled by particulates.
Crop damage reductions
Reduced crop damage from lower SO2 and NOx emissions
Reduced crop damage from low level ozone
Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau

21. Results (5): quantitative health benefits (physical numbers)
The majority of health benefits in the ENPI East region are realised in Russia
Deaths
Chronic Bronchitis Cases
Low
High
Armenia
100
340
250
810
Azerbaijan
230
750
580
1,870
Belarus
970
3,150
2,310
7,500
Georgia
Moldova
450
1,460
920
3,000
Russian Federation
21,970
71,250
41,630
135,000
Ukraine
4,740
15,370
4,570
14,810
Total
28,570
92,660
50,490
163,740
Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau

22. Results (6): quantitative health benefits
Deaths per 100,000 popn
Armenia 6
Azerbaijan 5
Belarus 17
Georgia 4
Moldova 21
Russia 27
Ukraine 18
- - Premature deaths avoided per 100,000 popn reflects relative concentrations of polluting activity and proximity to urban centres
Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau

23. Results (7): Monetary benefits
Annual Compliance: Domestic Benefits – 2020
Euro 2008 PPP (m)
% of GDP
Low
High
Armenia 71
231
0.3
1.1
Azerbaijan
227
736
0.8
Belarus
1,333
4,323
1.2
3.8
Georgia 57
184
0.9
Moldova
146
475
1.4
4.6
Russia
56,394
182,900
1.8
5.8
Ukraine
3,845
12,469
3.9
Total
62,073
201,319
Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau

24. Results (8): Monetary benefits
Annual Compliance: Trans-Boundary Benefits – 2020
Euro PPP 2008 (m)
% of GDP
Low
High
Armenia 72
233
0.3
1.1
Azerbaijan
157
509
0.2
0.6
Belarus
348
1,130
0.9
Georgia 71
230
Moldova
162
525
1.6
5.1
Russia
31,354
101,690
1.0
3.2
Ukraine
5,492
17,811
1.7
5.6
Total
37,656
122,129
Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau

25. Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau
Conclusions (1)
Total domestic benefits (health, crops, material) of reducing emissions by 50% from projected 2020 levels in all the Eastern ENP countries
→ €200 billion per year.
Total trans-boundary impacts (i.e. all benefits outside country borders)
→ €120 billion of benefits per year (more uncertain)
Benefits to human health - 90% of total benefits.
Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau

26. Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau
Conclusions (2)
Absolute levels of benefits from 50% reduction in air pollution are high:
– average 1 – 2% of GDP, including trans-boundary effects
Significant uncertainty in each part of the impact pathway (emissions-dispersion-exposure-impact-valuation)
Under-estimates quantitatively since does not include all air pollutants.
May over-estimate since assumes GDP-emissions rise together to 2020
Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau

27. Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau
Recommendations
Dissemination of these results should raise awareness and add impetus to need for increased regulation
Further country-specific analysis should be complemented by looking at costs and distributional effects of increased regulation
Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau

28. Outstanding questions
What do you think are the best ways of using these results in the ENPI-East region and in your respective countries in particular?
What additional information would you find helpful in interpreting and disseminating these results?
Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau

29. Thank you for your attention www.environment-benefits.eu
Project Analysis for ENPI countries of
social an economic benefits of
enhanced environment protection
(DCI-ENV/2009/ )
Thank you for your attention