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Analysis for ENPI countries of Social and Economic Benefits of Enhanced Environmental Protection EuropeAid DCI-ENV/2009/225-962 Air Quality (AQ) Alistair.

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Presentation on theme: "Analysis for ENPI countries of Social and Economic Benefits of Enhanced Environmental Protection EuropeAid DCI-ENV/2009/225-962 Air Quality (AQ) Alistair."— Presentation transcript:

1 Analysis for ENPI countries of Social and Economic Benefits of Enhanced Environmental Protection EuropeAid DCI-ENV/2009/ Air Quality (AQ) Alistair Hunt Department of Economics University of Bath UK +44(0)

2 Overview of AQ presentation AQ as an environmental hazard AQ in the ENPI East Regional context Outline of Method Results –Qualitative –Quantitative Conclusions: Next steps for policy use Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau2

3 Air Quality – Environmental Hazard AQ increasingly recognised as significant hazard in most countries in the world, including all ENPI East countries. Accumulating evidence showing adverse effects of air-borne pollutants on human health, agricultural crops, man-made environments (damage to building materials) and ecosystems. Impacts do not respect national boundaries Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau3

4 Air Quality – Sources of pollution Air pollutants may be released by either stationary sources (e.g. a coal-fired power plant), or by moving sources (e.g. cars, buses) Common pollutants include particulate matter, NOx, SO 2, CO, carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), ozone (O 3 ), (transport, energy combustion), lead (Pb), mercury (Hg), heavy metals (industry), etc Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau4

5 Pollutant emissions (% of total) from various sources in Europe Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau5 Source SO 2 NOxNMVOCNH 3 N2ON2OCO 2 COCH 4 Industrial power generation Other industry and waste disposal Road transport Domestic heating and cooking Agriculture and animals

6 Regional Context Air pollutants are emitted principally from – Heavy industries in all ENPI East countries (e.g. Ukraine: metallurgical industries, mining, and oil processing sectors) – Transport: In all ENPI East countries, rising levels of car ownership combined with poor levels of maintenance of an ageing car fleet Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau6

7 Regional Context Moldova: large majority of cars are not in line with technical requirements (Euro 2 and Euro 3) and are old. – More than 90% of the vehicles in Moldova are older than 10 years (MMoT). –The law prohibiting import of cars older than 7 years has been amended and increased the limit from 7 to 10 years Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau7

8 Regional Context Sources and Impacts predominantly in urban areas, where residential areas close to industry Trends: generally in line with levels of economic activity, though signs of de-coupling as technologies improve Previous studies in other world regions, plus ENPI national studies, show significant benefits of air pollutant reductions Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau8

9 Pollution emissions by country in 2005 (thousand tonnes) Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau9 NH3NMVOCNOxPM2.5PMcoPM10SO2 Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Moldova Russian Federation Ukraine Total (rounded)

10 Project Method (1) Benefits assessed under the project: resulting from 50% reductions from projected baseline levels of PM10, (transport) NMVOCs, (industry) NH3, (agriculture) SO2 and NOx (energy & transport) in –based on equivalent reductions typically required in countries adopting the EU AQ Framework Directive. ((Directive 2008/50/EC) The selected pollutants account for majority of benefits in previous assessments Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau10

11 Method (2) Qualitative assessment –Describe various forms of impacts resulting from AQ –Categorise benefits in terms of: Economic Social Environmental Health –Data from in-country reviews & other assessments Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau11

12 Methods (3) Quantitative assessment –Outputs from integrated software tool called EcoSense - assesses impacts resulting from the exposure to airborne pollutants: human health, crops, building materials. (Note: under-estimates since does not include all air pollutants). –modelling and the calculation of impact costs follow the Impact Pathway Approach (IPA). –Worked example in BAM for policy makers Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau12

13 Methods (4) Transport and chemical Transformation Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau13 Emissions Monetary Evaluation

14 Methods (5) Derive Unit value per tonne of pollutant –Unit value X Number of tonnes reduced = Total value of benefits (health, crops, materials) Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau14 NH 3 NMVOCNO X PM10SO 2 /ton (mean)8,400304,70032,4009,500 /ton (range) , , ,6008, ,6003, ,600 Air Quality Unit Values: Euro per ton of pollutant ( 2008 PPP )

15 Methods (6) Impacts – relative importance (% of total): –mortality (70 per cent); –morbidity (20 per cent); –crops (6 per cent); – materials (4 per cent). To express the results in physical terms: benefits apportioned to these splits 2.divide by unit value. (Central unit values for mortality and morbidity are 1.1 million and 0.2 million, respectively, but need adjusting for PPP) Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau15

16 Results from the BAs for ENPI East countries (1): qualitative Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau16 Environmental benefits Description Ecosystem condition improvements Reduced acidification from lower SO 2 and NO x emissions Reduced climate change impacts on impacts from lower SO 2 and NO x emissions Reduced damage to vegetation from low level ozone

17 Results (2) Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau17 Health benefitsDescription Lower incidence of acute and chronic disease Reductions in SO 2 imply lower incidence of cardiovascular and respiratory disease Reductions in PM 10 concentrations imply lower emergency-room visits due to asthma, and also hospital admissions on the grounds of respiratory diseases Reductions in NO x, when combined with ozone, organic compounds, particulates and sunlight result in corresponding reductions of photochemical smog that otherwise cause respiratory impairment, irritation of the eyes and mucous membrane, with asthma patients and young children.

18 Results (2b): case study Carcinogenic risk for the population of a metallurgical centre, Achinsk in Krasnoyarsk region (Siberia) –at present levels of air pollution, the number of cases of cancer will amount to 48 cases during the next 70 years, or 0.66 cases per year Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau18

19 Results (3) Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau19 Social benefitsDescription Reduced damage to cultural heritage, including historic building surfaces in city centres Black smoke from traffic is a prime cause of discolouring of buildings, including public buildings of important social cultural value, such as monuments, historic buildings, churches, museums Exposure of building materials to SO 2 deposition from acidification results in premature ageing. Reduced blackening and erosion of surfaces (from SO x and NO x emissions from traffic fuel use), can improve the social appreciation and use of city centres and cultural heritage.

20 Results (4) Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau20 Economic benefits Description Green technology industries Increase in demand for products and processes that result in lower air pollution emissions, and subsequent employment opportunities, as long as such industries are domestic. Increased visits to improved landscapes and natural areas Increase in tourism and associated expenditures in local areas. Lower material cleaning costs Reductions in expenditures on building surfaces soiled by particulates. Crop damage reductions Reduced crop damage from lower SO 2 and NO x emissions Reduced crop damage from low level ozone

21 Results (5): quantitative health benefits (physical numbers) –The majority of health benefits in the ENPI East region are realised in Russia Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau21 Deaths Chronic Bronchitis Cases LowHighLowHigh Armenia Azerbaijan ,870 Belarus 970 3,150 2,310 7,500 Georgia Moldova 450 1, ,000 Russian Federation 21,970 71,250 41, ,000 Ukraine 4,740 15,370 4,570 14,810 Total 28,570 92,660 50, ,740

22 Results (6): quantitative health benefits Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau22 Deaths per 100,000 popn Armenia6 Azerbaijan5 Belarus17 Georgia4 Moldova21 Russia27 Ukraine Premature deaths avoided per 100,000 popn reflects relative concentrations of polluting activity and proximity to urban centres

23 Results (7): Monetary benefits Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau23 Euro 2008 PPP (m)% of GDP LowHighLowHigh Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus 1,333 4, Georgia Moldova Russia 56, , Ukraine 3,845 12, Total 62, ,319 Annual Compliance: Domestic Benefits – 2020

24 Results (8): Monetary benefits Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau24 Euro PPP 2008 (m)% of GDP LowHighLowHigh Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus 348 1, Georgia Moldova Russia 31, , Ukraine 5,492 17, Total 37, ,129 Annual Compliance: Trans-Boundary Benefits – 2020

25 Conclusions (1) Total domestic benefits (health, crops, material) of reducing emissions by 50% from projected 2020 levels in all the Eastern ENP countries 200 billion per year. Total trans-boundary impacts (i.e. all benefits outside country borders) 120 billion of benefits per year (more uncertain) Benefits to human health - 90% of total benefits Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau25

26 Conclusions (2) Absolute levels of benefits from 50% reduction in air pollution are high: – average 1 – 2% of GDP, including trans- boundary effects Significant uncertainty in each part of the impact pathway (emissions-dispersion-exposure-impact- valuation) Under-estimates quantitatively since does not include all air pollutants. May over-estimate since assumes GDP-emissions rise together to Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau26

27 Recommendations Dissemination of these results should raise awareness and add impetus to need for increased regulation Further country-specific analysis should be complemented by looking at costs and distributional effects of increased regulation Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau27

28 Outstanding questions What do you think are the best ways of using these results in the ENPI-East region and in your respective countries in particular? What additional information would you find helpful in interpreting and disseminating these results? Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau28

29 Thank you for your attention Project Analysis for ENPI countries of social an economic benefits of enhanced environment protection (DCI-ENV/2009/ )

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