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SENES Consultants Limited 1 Hamilton Air Quality and Health Impacts Study - 2011 Presented to: Upwind Downwind Conference Presented by: Dr. Douglas Chambers.

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Presentation on theme: "SENES Consultants Limited 1 Hamilton Air Quality and Health Impacts Study - 2011 Presented to: Upwind Downwind Conference Presented by: Dr. Douglas Chambers."— Presentation transcript:

1 SENES Consultants Limited 1 Hamilton Air Quality and Health Impacts Study Presented to: Upwind Downwind Conference Presented by: Dr. Douglas Chambers February 27,

2 SENES Consultants Limited 2 Background Project a result of interest by Clean Air Hamilton (CAH) to update Health Impacts Assessment Significant work undertaken by CAH and partners to lower air concentrations in Hamilton for many pollutants

3 SENES Consultants Limited 3 Some Initiatives to Improve Air Quality Public Health initiatives (AQHI) Sustainable transportation initiatives (anti- idling, mobile monitoring) Improved air monitoring (Hamilton Air Monitoring Network On-line) Air Quality communication (CAH website) Emission reductions (wood burning efficiency initiative)

4 SENES Consultants Limited 4 City of Hamilton Boundaries

5 SENES Consultants Limited 5 Air Pollutants Considered Fine Particulate Matter PM 10 and PM 2.5 Nitrogen Dioxide Surrogate for NOx as NO converted rapidly to NO 2 Sulphur Dioxide Ozone Carbon Monoxide

6 SENES Consultants Limited 6 Air Quality - PM 2.5

7 SENES Consultants Limited 7 Air Quality – PM 10

8 SENES Consultants Limited 8 Air Quality – NO 2

9 SENES Consultants Limited 9 Air Quality – SO 2

10 SENES Consultants Limited 10 Air Quality – O 3

11 SENES Consultants Limited 11 Air Quality – CO

12 SENES Consultants Limited 12 Previous Study Used Dr. Pengellys Hamilton Air Quality Initiative 1997 report as a basis Used same methodology to allow for comparison Updated the relative risk outcomes for PM 10, NO 2, SO 2, CO and O 3 Adjusted health outcomes by 42% due to errors in the derivation of the relative risks from the literature

13 SENES Consultants Limited 13 Current Study Used same methodology as 2003 study Updated air quality data Obtained from the MOE Updated mortality and morbidity health data Obtained from Hamilton Public Health Services

14 SENES Consultants Limited 14 Current Study …contd Updated relative risks where new studies were available All relative risks for mortality updated Only some for morbidity –Adopted relative risks from 2003 study Included health outcomes for PM 2.5

15 SENES Consultants Limited 15 Assumptions Used in Current Study Focus on relative risks of acute exposures Similar to previous study Used average relative risks values Separate relative risks for each air pollutant – May result in double-counting Considered representative air concentrations No consideration of proximity to industry or major roadways

16 SENES Consultants Limited 16 Health Data Obtained Health Data from City of Hamilton Public Health Services Mortality Data Only available up to 2005 Morbidity Data Cardiovascular hospital admissions up to 2008 Respiratory hospital admissions up to 2008

17 SENES Consultants Limited 17 Mortality and Morbidity Rates for Hamilton * Approximated by Total Acute Care Hospital Discharges for Disease of the Circulatory System ** Approximated by Acute Care Hospital Discharges for Disease of the Respiratory System

18 SENES Consultants Limited 18 Relative Risks Used in the Study Air Pollutant NT Mortality (changes per 10 pollution units) Respiratory Hospital Admissions (changes per 10 pollution units) Cardiovascular Hospital Admissions (changes per 10 pollution units) PM 2.5 (µg/m 3 ) PM 10 (µg/m 3 ) *0.7 SO 2 (ppb) * NO 2 (ppb) *0.94 CO (ppm) * O 3 (ppb) *0.2 Note: - no data available in the literature to determine a relative risk * relative risks obtained from Sahsuvaroglu and Jerrett (2003) as no new data available

19 SENES Consultants Limited 19 Model Equation Risk (due AQ) = ER[excess relative risk due to AQ] x [baseline rates] = [ERR (per unit Concentration)] x [Air concentration] x [ baseline rates]

20 SENES Consultants Limited 20 NT Acute Exposure Mortality

21 SENES Consultants Limited 21 Respiratory Hospital Admissions Note: PM10, NO 2 and O 3 Respiratory Hospital Admissions Adjusted by 42% as Using RR Values from 2003 Study

22 SENES Consultants Limited 22 Cardiovascular Hospital Admissions Note: PM10, NO 2 and O 3 Respiratory Hospital Admissions Adjusted by 42% as Using RR Values from 2003 Study Note: SO 2 and CO Cardiovascular Hospital Admissions Adjusted by 42% as Using RR Values from 2003 Study

23 SENES Consultants Limited 23 Note: No relative risks from literature for respiratory admissions for PM 2.5 Results Summary for Particulate Matter

24 SENES Consultants Limited 24 Results Summary for NO 2 and SO 2

25 SENES Consultants Limited 25 Results Summary for O 3 and CO Note: No relative risks from literature for respiratory admissions for CO

26 SENES Consultants Limited 26 Summary of Results for Current Study

27 SENES Consultants Limited 27 NT Acute Exposure Mortality Respiratory Admissions CV Admissions (changes per 10 units pollutant) range of RR estimates 1997 Study 2003 Study Current Study 1997 Study 2003 Study Current Study 1997 Study 2003 Study Current Study PM 10 (μg/m 3 ) PM 2.5 (μg/m 3 ) SO 2 (ppb) NO 2 (ppb) CO(ppm) O3O3 (ppb) Comparison of Relative Risks Between Current and Previous Studies

28 SENES Consultants Limited 28 Comparison of Mortality Outcomes Note: 1.All 1997 and 2003 study data adjusted by 42% to account for overestimation of RR values

29 SENES Consultants Limited 29 Comparison of Respiratory Outcomes Note: 1.All 1997 and 2003 study data adjusted by 42% to account for overestimation of RR values 2.PM 10, NO 2 and O 3 current study values adjusted by 42% as no updated RR values were available

30 SENES Consultants Limited 30 Comparison of Cardiovascular Outcomes Note: 1.All 1997 and 2003 study data adjusted by 42% to account for overestimation of RR values 2.SO 2 and CO current study values adjusted by 42% as no updated RR values were available

31 SENES Consultants Limited 31 Alternative Models - ICAP Details: Developed by DSS Management Consultants for the Canadian Medical Association PM 10, PM 2.5, SO 2, NO 2, CO, O 3 Historical census division specific air quality data from NAPS stations Input: risk rates, air quality or trends, baseline/background air quality Output: annual events and economic damages attributable to increase in specific parameter level from baseline/background

32 SENES Consultants Limited 32 Alternative Models – ICAP … contd Limitations for this application: 2006 starting year complicates comparison with current model Cannot easily calculate incremental benefit or savings (damages only) For this study can only demonstrate incremental health effects and economic impact with ozone as benefits associated with other pollutants Cannot evaluate all pollutants in one run Output format inconvenient to work with Evaluates total mortality only (not chronic and acute separately)

33 SENES Consultants Limited 33 Comparison of Relative Risks Between Current Study and ICAP NT Acute Exposure Mortality Respiratory Admissions CV Admissions (changes per 10 units pollutant) range of RR estimates ICAP*CurrentICAPCurrentICAPCurrent PM 10 (μg/m3) PM 2.5 (μ/m3) SO 2 (ppb) NO 2 (ppb) CO(1 ppm) O3O3 (ppb) * ICAP NT Mortality is Total While Current is Acute Only

34 SENES Consultants Limited 34 Results from ICAP Model - Ozone

35 SENES Consultants Limited 35 Alternative Model - AQBAT Details: Developed by Dave Stieb and Stan Judek, Health Canada PM 10, PM 2.5 (limited), SO 2, NO 2, CO, O 3 Historical census division specific air quality data from NAPS stations Input: risk rates and air quality or trends Output: annual events and damages attributable to increase in specific parameter level from baseline Limitations for this application: Cannot Input Air Quality Prior to 2003 for Comparison to Baseline Difficult to Compare to Total Events per Year

36 SENES Consultants Limited 36 Comparison of Relative Risks Between Current Study and AQBAT NT Acute Exposure Mortality Respiratory Admissions CV Admissions (changes per 10 units pollutant) range of RR estimates AQBATCurrentAQBATCurrentAQBATCurrent PM 10 (μg/m3) PM 2.5 (μ/m3) SO 2 (ppb) NO 2 (ppb) CO(1 ppm) O3O3 (ppb)

37 SENES Consultants Limited 37 Results from AQBAT (1)

38 SENES Consultants Limited 38 Results from AQBAT (2)

39 SENES Consultants Limited 39 Economic Valuation - AQBAT Savings Cost Millions of Dollars

40 SENES Consultants Limited 40 Summary Updated Health Study showed improvements to health outcomes Due to decreases in air concentrations –Ozone the exception Due to decreases in relative risks from literature studies Limited utility of other available models for this application Direct comparisons difficult to make between models Cost heavily dependent on model Can vary widely (in this example at least 5-fold) Should update the health study in another 5 years


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