1. Lecture 22: Everything You Always Wanted to Know About Central Asia* *but were afraid to ask February 27, 2009

2. Central Asia

4. Central Asia Fun Facts Poorest part of USSR; GDP/capita: Poorest part of USSR; GDP/capita: Kazakhstan $12,000 Kyrgyzstan $2,200 Tajikistan $1,800 Turkmenistan $5,800 Uzbekistan $2,700 Uzbekistan $2,700 (US $48,000) Monocultures: cultivation of a single crop Monocultures: cultivation of a single crop Mostly Muslim: Kaz (47%)-Turkmen (89%) Mostly Muslim: Kaz (47%)-Turkmen (89%) Nations and borders artificial creations of 20 th century Nations and borders artificial creations of 20 th century USSR provided homelands USSR provided homelands Thrust into independence in 1991 Thrust into independence in 1991

5. Democratize? “Transition theory” of western governments and INGOs: autocracy ends, transition begins “Transition theory” of western governments and INGOs: autocracy ends, transition begins Literacy ~99%, women’s rights Literacy ~99%, women’s rights Resources: oil, cotton, gold, uranium Resources: oil, cotton, gold, uranium IMF, western economists advised IMF, western economists advised

6. No.

7. Why Not Democracy? Low income Low income Weak civil society Weak civil society Resource curse Resource curse Bad neighbors Bad neighbors Decline in economic security, human development Decline in economic security, human development USSR had generous welfare state USSR had generous welfare state End of subsidies End of subsidies Loss of investment and export markets  unemployment Loss of investment and export markets  unemployment Corruption Corruption Bad leaders Bad leaders

9. Parade Magazine’s List of Worse Dictators— 2006 1) Omar al-Bashir, Sudan. Age 62. In power since 1989 2) Kim Jong-il, North Korea. Age 63. In power since 1994 3) Than Shwe, Burma (Myanmar). Age 72. In power since 1992. 4) Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe. Age 81. In power since 1980. 5) Islam Karimov, Uzbekistan. Age 67. In power since 1990. 6) Hu Jintao, China. Age 63. In power since 2002. 7) King Abdullah, Saudi Arabia. Age 82. In power since 1995. 8) Saparmurat Niyazov, Turkmenistan. Age 65. In power since 1990. 9) Seyed Ali Khameini, Iran. Age 66. In power since 1989. 10) Teodoro Obiang Nguema, Equatorial Guinea. Age 63. In power since 1979.

11. Nation-building No pre-Soviet national identity No pre-Soviet national identity Nationalism for presidential legitimacy Nationalism for presidential legitimacy Rewrote history books Rewrote history books Adopted “national” symbols Adopted “national” symbols

12. Nation-building

14. Pipeline Politics in the Caspian Basin What they want: US: diversify sources, help US companies, isolate Russia, Iran  use Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline US: diversify sources, help US companies, isolate Russia, Iran  use Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline Russia: obligations to Europe, maintain “sphere of influence” Russia: obligations to Europe, maintain “sphere of influence” China: as much oil/gas as possible China: as much oil/gas as possible Iran: not be isolated Iran: not be isolated Central Asia: not be dependent, $$$ Central Asia: not be dependent, $$$

16. US Bases in Central Asia Support Afghanistan operations, “lily pad” strategy, wean former Soviet states off Russia Support Afghanistan operations, “lily pad” strategy, wean former Soviet states off Russia Russia first accepted, then demurred Russia first accepted, then demurred US alliance with Uzbek dictator Islam Karimov US alliance with Uzbek dictator Islam Karimov Andijan massacre Andijan massacre Base closed Base closed Now what…? Now what…?

17. What Can We Learn from Central Asia? Transition paradigm wrong Transition paradigm wrong The art of faking democracy The art of faking democracy US foreign policy: interests vs. principle US foreign policy: interests vs. principle Muslim world diverse Muslim world diverse How we conceptualize regions matters How we conceptualize regions matters