1. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 1 Szklarska Poreba -9 – 2008 By Oshri Weiss The IJN and the Hebrew University of Jerusalem Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem

2. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 2 Talk outline Introduction  The Rationality Debate Empirical study  Goal  Methodology  Main predictions  Experiment 1  Experiment 2  Experiment 3  Experiment 4 Open questions and Further study Appendices  Appendix A: References  Appendix B: The invariance rule  Appendix C: Results  Appendix D: Quotes Pragmatic considerations  Related to the Asian disease problem

3. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 3 Introduction - The Rationality Debate The standard methodology used for reasoning studies: A:  Present a reasoning task with a given construction in mind B:  Use the responses in order to infer and evaluate the reasoning process The problem:  The inference is valid only if the respondents are using the same construction of the task as intended by the author

4. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 4 Introduction - The Rationality Debate The task: Hypothetical statement:  If it is raining (p) than it is cloudy (q) Categorical premise:  It is raining (p);  It is cloudy (q);  It is not raining (~p);  It is not cloudy (~q) Conclusion:  1. p, 2. q, 3. ~p, 4.~q The inadequacy of the Standard Methodology Models: Standard model: p → q Alternative models: A: q → p B: p ↔ q A demonstration by a typical task of deductive reasoning:

5. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 5 Introduction - The Rationality Debate Standard model: Valid inferences: (MP,MT) Invalid inferences: (AC, DA) Alternative model A: Valid inferences: (AC,DA) Invalid inferences: (MP,MT) Alternative model B: Valid inferences: (MP,MT, AC, DA) In addition to misevaluating the validity of the respondents’ answers, the standard model may assign to the respondents the wrong inferences scheme The inadequacy of the Standard Methodology Evaluating the respondent’s answers:

6. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 6 Introduction - The Rationality Debate There is a systematic diversity from normative models of decision - making and rational judgment Conclusion Often, the respondents are using a different construction of the task than the constrictions intended by the authors. Considering these alternative constructions the respondents answers do not violate the rules of rational thinking and the criticism The “standard methodology”

7. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 7 Introduction - The Rationality Debate To evaluate the respondents’ reasoning according their own interpretation of the task and the given information Alternative methodology Considering the respondents’ own interpretation, the inference from their answer to the reasoning task and the underlying cognitive process is valid

8. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 8 Pragmatic Considerations The Asian disease problem

9. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 9 Pragmatic Considerations The Experiment  A choice between a certain and a probable outcome is presented in two versions  once from a positive perspective  and once from a negative perspective  The two versions share the same cover story and differ only in the choice of alternatives The Findings  Majority of subjects have chosen the certain option when the outcomes are phrased in positive terms  72%  Majority of subjects have chosen the probable outcome when the outcomes are phrased in negative terms  78% The Interpretation  Since the two sure and the two probable outcomes are equivalent this answer pattern is violating the invariance rule The Asian disease problem By Tversky and Kahneman (1981)

10. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 10 The Asian disease problem According to K&T’s standard construction of the problem the two certain outcomes are equivalent thus  the outcome that 200 people will be saved implies the outcome that 400 people will die and vice versa The information given for the sure outcomes is incomplete  thus in the positive framing condition it is only mentioned explicitly that 200 people will be saved and  in the negative framing condition it is only mentioned explicitly that 400 people will die. The argument of the opposing view This leads to alternative constructions of the problem  the certain outcomes allows that more than 200 people will be saved in the positive framing  and more than 400 people will die in the negative framing

11. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 11 The Asian disease problem Under the alternative construction of the problem:  the certain outcome in the positive framing condition is better in terms of expected utility than the certain outcome in the negative framing condition. The argument of the opposing view The answer pattern observed by K&T does not indicate a violation of the invariance rule Therefore

12. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 12 The empirical study Relating interpretations to subjects’ decisions

13. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 13 The empirical study To answer the question: The goal of the study “In what extent subjects’ interpretation of the given information determines their choices?”

14. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 14 The empirical study The methodology of the study The methods I have used to address this question: 1. Manipulating the interpretation of the disputed information (the certain outcomes) and testing the effect of this manipulation on the subjects' responses 2. Detecting the actual interpretation of disputed information by the respondents Combining the two methods would provide a stronger evidence for the alleged relation between the interpretation and the choice, than using either one of these two methods separately

15. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 15 The methodology of the empirical study Changes to the original problem Encouraging the respondents to make the “standard” interpretation of the problem  by adding the word "exactly" to the description of the certain outcomes  the certain outcome in the positive framing was changed to: ▪If program A is adopted, exactly 200 people will be saved  the certain outcome in the negative framing was cahnged to: ▪If program C is adopted, exactly 400 people will die

16. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 16 The methodology of the empirical study Detecting the subject’s interpretation Following Dulany & Hilton the phrasing of this question was: What do you think the writer meant by the last statement: positive framing : “200 (exactly 200) people will be saved” negative framing : “400 (exactly 400) people will die” To detect the interpretation of the certain outcome of each subject:  I have used a multiple-choice question  this method provides clear answer to the question  whether the subject had an alternative interpretation for the certain option  as opposed to other methods, which do not limit the subjects to a predetermined answer set

17. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 17 The methodology of the empirical study Detecting the subject’s interpretation 2 The subjects were then presented with a set of options representing possible interpretations of the certain outcomes Two types of options were presented:  “standard” interpretation  “alternative” interpretations of the certain outcome

18. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 18 The empirical study Main predictions 1.Adding the word “exactly” would encourage the respondents to make the standard interpretation 2.This predicted influence on the respondents’ interpretation would be followed by a change in their choices. 3. Subjects who have the alternative interpretation will be more likely to choose the certain outcome in the positive framing and less likely to choose it in the negative framing.

19. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 19 The empirical study: Experiment 1 Specific characteristics This experiment tested only the positive framing condition  Conditions  The subjects were randomly assigned to one of the two conditions: a.the “original positive” version of the problem b.“exactly positive” version (the word “exactly was added to the description of the certain outcome)  There were no other differences between the two versions  Language  Hebrew  Time and place  The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 2006  Subjects  191 participants  Material  Pen and pencil test  The order of questions:  To choose between the two programs  To answer the question designed to detect their interpretation

20. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 20 The empirical study: Experiment 1 The set of possible interpretations The complete phrasing of the question was designed to detect the respondent’s interpretation:  What do you think the author meant by the sentence: (exactly) 200 people will be saved?  There is no "correct" answer to this question, just choose the interpretation  Which is most suited to your understanding of the author's intention when you were making your choice?  Please mark one option: 1. 200 people will be saved now, and 400 people will die now. 2. It is certain that 200 people will be saved, and it is likely that 400 people will die 3. 200 people will be saved, and it is possible that more people will be saved 4. It is certain that 200 people will be saved, and it is certain that 400 people will die. Choosing options 1 or 4 was considered as indicating the standard interpretation of the certain outcome  200 people will be saved and 400 people will die Choosing options 2 or 3 was considered as indicating the alternative interpretation of the certain outcome  it is possible that more than 200 people will be saved.

21. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 21 The empirical study: Experiment 1 Prediction A  There will be more “perhaps more” interpretations in the “positive original” version than in the “positive exactly” version. Prediction B  More respondents will be choosing the certain outcome in the “positive original” version than in the “positive exactly” version. Prediction C  The participants who interpret the certain outcome as allowing that more than 200 people will be saved (as indicated by choosing options 2 or 3) will be more likely to choose the certain outcome than the participants who have the standard interpretation of the certain outcome (as indicated by choosing options 1 or 4) Predictions

22. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 22 The empirical study: Experiment 1 Prediction A - Confirmed  Subjects were more likely to make the: “perhaps more” interpretation in the: “positive original” version than in the: “positive exactly” version Prediction B - Confirmed  Subjects were more likely to choose the certain outcome in the: “positive original” version than in the: “positive exactly” version Prediction C - Confirmed  The participants who interpreted the certain outcome as allowing that more than 200 people will be saved were more likely to choose the certain outcome than the participants who make the standard interpretation of the certain outcome Results for experiment 1

23. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 23 The empirical study: Experiment 1 Discussion The confirmation of all the three predictions of the Pragmatic analysis support the claim  The preference of the certain alternative in the positive framing of the Asian Disease problem is due to the phrasing of this alternative. But there is an alternative explanation to the findings of experiment 1:  Since the "interpretation question" was presented after the choice, the subjects' answers to the "interpretation question" could be influenced by the desire to justify their choice.

24. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 24 The empirical study: Experiment 2 The goal: The method  it was assured that the respondents’ answers to the “interpretation question” would not be influenced by the desire to justify their choice The technique  the “interpretation question” was presented immediately after the problem and before presenting the choice between the two alternative programs to rule out the alternative explanation of the findings of experiment 1

25. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 25 The empirical study: Experiment 2 Specific characteristics The changed order of questions is the only difference between the designs of experiments 2 and experiment 1  Conditions  The subjects were randomly assigned to one of two conditions: a.the “original positive” version of the problem b.the “exactly positive” version ▪There were no other differences between the two versions  Language  Hebrew  Time and place  The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 2006  Subjects  74 participants  Material  Pen and pencil test  The order of questions:  To answer the question designed to detect their interpretation  To choose between the two programs

26. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 26 The empirical study: Experiment 2 Prediction A - Confirmed  Subjects were more likely to make the “perhaps more” interpretation in the “positive original” version than in the “positive exactly” version Prediction B - Confirmed  Subjects were more likely to choose the certain outcome in the “positive original” version than in the “positive exactly” version Prediction C - Confirmed  The participants who interpreted the certain outcome as allowing that more than 200 people will be saved were more likely to choose the certain outcome than the participants who make the standard interpretation of the certain outcome Results for experiment 2

27. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 27 The empirical study: Experiment 2 Discussion The findings of experiment 2 support the findings of experiment 1 by:  Establishing the independence between the confirmation of predictions A and B  Replicating the results of experiment 1

28. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 28 The empirical study - The first 2 experiments Conclusions 1.The alternative interpretation of the certain outcome as allowing that more than 200 people will be saved accounts (at least partially) for the subjects' preference of the certain outcome in the positive framing condition 2. These findings questions the claim that the seemingly inconsistent responses observed by K&T are reflecting a violation of the invariance rule

29. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 29 The empirical study - The first 2 experiments Problems and criticism 1. What about the negative framing?  The first 2 experiments have not tested the negative framing condition and therefore they are not sufficient for answering the question of whether or not the subjects’ answers violate invariance 2. Interpreting the numbers as a maximum amount:  Numbers are sometimes used to indicate an upper limit  Mother to the child: “You can eat 3 cookies”  Some of the subjects may have such interpretation of the certain outcomes  If subjects who make the “at least 200 people will be saved” interpretation in the positive framing also make the “at most 400 people will die” interpretation in the negative framing  Then choosing the certain outcome in the positive framing and the probable outcome in the negative framing is still a violation of the invariance rule

30. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 30 The empirical study: Experiment 3 Goal: Addressing the negative framing as well by:  Adding 2 additional conditions Testing the “at most 200(400)” interpretations:  adding an option reflecting the  “200 (400) and maybe less” interpretation to the set of multiple choices of the “interpretation question” To address the limitations of experiments 1 and 2

31. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 31 The empirical study: Experiment 3 Specific characteristics In this experiment both, the positive and the negative framing conditions were tested.  Conditions  The subjects were randomly assigned to one of four conditions: 1. the “original positive” version of the problem 2. the “exactly positive” version 3. The “original negative” version 4. the “exactly negative” version  Language  English  Time and place  Various gatherings of the English speaking community in Paris, 2007  Subjects  129 participants  Material  Pen and pencil test  The order of questions:  To choose between the two programs  To answer the question designed to detect their interpretation

32. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 32 The empirical study: Experiment 3 The set of possible interpretations 1.200 people will be saved now and 400 people will die now 2.It is certain that 200 people will be saved, and it is likely that 400 people will die 3.200 people will be saved, and it is possible that more than 200 people will be saved 4.It is certain that 200 people will be saved, and it is certain that 400 people will die. 5.200 people will be saved, and it is possible that less than 200 people will be saved Choosing options 1 or 4  were considered as indicating the standard interpretation of the certain outcome that 200 people will be saved and 400 people will die Choosing options 2 or 3  were considered as indicating interpretation that at least 200 people will be saved Choosing option 5  was considered as indicating interpretation that at most 200 people will be saved. The positive framing conditions

33. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 33 The empirical study: Experiment 3 1.400 people will die now and 200 people will be saved now. 2.It is certain that 400 people will die, and it is likely that 200 people will be saved. 3.400 people will die, and it is possible that more than 400 people will die. 4.It is certain that 400 people will die, and it is certain that 200 people will be saved. 5.400 people will die, and it is possible that less than 400 people will die. Choosing options 1 or 4  were considered as indicating the standard interpretation of the certain outcome that 400 people will die and that 200 people will be saved. choosing options 2 or 3  were considered as indicating interpretation that at least 400 people will die choosing option 5  was considered as indicating interpretation that at most 400 people will die The set of possible interpretations The negative framing conditions

34. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 34 The empirical study - Experiment 3 Positive framing  The influence of adding the word “exactly” to the interpretation of the certain outcome:  Reduction in the number of: “at least 200” and: “at most 200” interpretation  An increase in the number of: “exactly 200” interpretations  The reduction in the number of: “at least 200” interpretations was smaller than in experiments 1 and 2 Results – experiment 3 Interpretations Negative framing  The influence of adding the word “exactly” on the interpretation of the certain outcome  There was not any considerable difference between the two negative versions

35. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 35 The empirical study – Experiment 3 The proportion of risk averse subjects  Contrary to the predictions of the Pragmatic Analysis  subjects were more likely to choose the certain outcome in the “negative original” version ▪24%  than in the “negative exactly” version ▪20% Negative framing Results – experiment 3 The correlation between the interpretation and choice  Contrary to the predictions of the Pragmatic Analysis

36. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 36 The empirical study: Experiment 3 Discussion The results of the positive framing provide additional evidence to the claimed relation between the interpretation and choice  The fact that the subjects are much more likely to make the “at least 200” interpretation in the positive framing than to make the “at most 400” interpretation in the negative framing suggests that there is a considerable group of respondents that considering their own interpretation of the certain outcomes do not violate invariance  On the other hand, the findings of the negative framing does not confirm the hypothesis that the preference of the probable outcome in the negative framing condition is related to the interpretation of the certain outcome.

37. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 37 The empirical study – Experiment 3 Open questions Why are the negative and positive framings different? Suggested answer  It is possible that some respondents view the description of the programs with the certain outcomes as a commitment made by the proposing scientists manifesting a worse case scenario.  A respondent with this construction in mind would have both the “at least 200” and the “at most 400” interpretations  The existence of a group of subjects with such a construction could explain the findings that adding the word exactly reduces the proportion of risk averse choices in the positive framing condition but does not increases the proportion of risk averse choices in the negative framing condition Nevertheless the fact that the “at most 400” interpretation in the negative framing is not as common as the “at least 200” interpretation in the positive framing raises some doubts

38. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 38 The empirical study: Experiment 3 Problems with the set of possible interpretations The phrasing of the options representing the “standard interpretation” The task of comparing between these 5 options might be too demanding for some of the subjects The set includes only 1 option reflecting the “perhaps less” interpretation whereas there are 2 options representing each of the two other interpretations Standing issues:

39. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 39 The empirical study: Experiment 4 Goal: Addressing the first issue  The phrasing of the option reflecting the standard interpretation was changed Addressing the second and third issues:  The answer set includes only 3 options in order to:  reduce the cognitive load involved in comparing the alternatives  equalize the number of options representing each possible interpretation  In addition, the respondents could specify their interpretation in their own words. To simplify and to improve the set of possible interpretations.

40. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 40 The empirical study: Experiment 4 Specific characteristics Conditions  The subjects were randomly assigned to one of four conditions: 1. “positive original 2. “positive exactly” 3. “negative original” 4.“negative exactly” Language  English Time and place  Various gatherings of the English speaking community in Paris, 2007-2008 Subjects  118 participants. Material  Pen and pencil test The order of the questions  For half of the subjects the order was:  To answer the question designed to detect their interpretation  To choose between the two programs  For the other half of the subjects the order was reversed:  To choose between the two programs  To answer the question designed to detect their interpretation

41. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 41 The empirical study: Experiment 4 1.200 people, and perhaps more, will be saved 2.200 people, no more and no less, will be saved 3.200 people, and perhaps less, will be saved 4.Other (please specify): Option 1 reflects the:  “at least 200” interpretation Option 2 reflects the:  “exactly 200” interpretation Options 3 reflects the:  “at most 200” interpretation The set of possible interpretations The positive framing conditions

42. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 42 The empirical study: Experiment 4 1.400 people, and perhaps more, will die 2.400 people, no more and no less, will die 3.400 people, and perhaps less, will die 4.Other (please specify): Option 1 reflects the:  “at least 400” interpretation, Option 2 reflects the:  “exactly 400” interpretation Options 3 reflects the:  “at most 400” interpretation The set of possible interpretations The negative framing conditions

43. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 43 The empirical study - Experiment 4 Positive framing  The influence of adding the word “exactly” on the interpretation of the certain outcome:  Reducing the number of: “at least 200” “at “most 200” and: “more or less 200” (other).  Increasing the number of: “exactly 200” Results – experiment 4 Interpretations Negative framing  The influence of adding the word “exactly” on the interpretation of the certain outcome:  Reducing the number of: “at least 400” and “at “most 400”  Increasing the number of: “exactly 400”

44. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 44 The empirical study - Experiment 4 Positive framing  Contrary to the previous studies:  The participants with the: “at least 200” interpretation were as likely to choose the certain outcome as the participants with the: “exactly 200” interpretation  Subjects from both groups were more likely to choose the certain outcome than the participants who make the: “at most 200” interpretation The correlation between the interpretation and choice Results – experiment 4 Negative framing  The results were mixed:  The participants who had the: “at least 400” interpretation were more likely to choose the certain outcome.  Than the participants who make the standard interpretation of the certain outcome.  Contrary to the predictions of the Pragmatic Analysis  But less likely than the participants who make the interpretation that it is possible that less than 400 people will die  In accordance with the predictions of the Pragmatic Analysis

45. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 45 The empirical study – Experiment 4 Negative framing  Contrary to the predictions of the Pragmatic Analysis  subjects were more likely to choose the certain outcome in the “negative original” version ▪31%  than in the “negative exactly” version ▪10% The proportion of risk averse subjects Results – experiment 4

46. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 46 The empirical study: Experiment 4 Summary of the results The influence of adding the word “exactly” on the proportion of risk averse choices in the positive framing condition was replicated As opposed to the previous studies there was not a strong relation between the interpretation and choice neither in the positive nor in the negative conditions Comparing to the findings of experiment 3 the most striking difference is a reduction in the number of subjects making the “at least n” interpretation, particularly in the positive framing condition

47. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 47 The empirical study – Experiments 3 and 4 Open questions Which one of the two set of possible interpretations is better?  One might argue that the set used in experiment 3 over estimated the proportion of subjects making the “at least 200 (400)” interpretations  Therefore, the set used in experiment 4 is more adequate for reflecting the respondent’s construction of the task  But in that case,the correlation between the interpretation and choice found in experiments 1-3 should be even stronger in experiment 4  Thus, there is a dissonance between the theoretical adequacy of the set used in experiment 4 and the empirical confirmation of the set used in experiment 3

48. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 48 Further study 1 Using a between-subject design The Method  Experimentally manipulating the alternative interpretations by adding two additional phrasing:  “At least 200 (400) people will be saved (die)”  “At most 200 (400) people will be saved (die)” Advantages:  To provide a measure of the relation between having the alternative interpretations and the choices which does not rely on the phrasing of the interpretation question Disadvantages:  Requires many respondents Additional experiment

49. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 49 Further study 2 K&T study and my own experiments were using a between- subject design:  in which each participant is presented with either the positive or the negative version of the problem.  In within-subjects design each subject is presented with both the positive and the negative version of the problem. The method:  To detect each one of the respondents’ interpretation of the presented problem in a with-in subject design The benefits:  Estimating the proportion of subjects who violate invariance considering their own interpretation  Studying the relation between the tendency to have alternative interpretation to several factors that underlines inter personal variety in reasoning task, such as general intelligence Stanovich & West (1998) Using a within-subject design

50. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 50 Appendix A: References Berkeley, D. & Humphreys, P. “Structuring decision problems and the "bias heuristic“ “. Acta Psychologica, 50, 201-252, 1982 Dulany, D.L & Hilton D.J.: "Conversational Implicature, Conscious Representation, and the Conjunction Fallacy." Social cognition 9, (85-109), 1991 Hilton D.J.: "The Social Context of Reasoning: Conversational Inference and Rational Judgment". Psychological Bulletin, 118, No 2 (248-271), 1995 Kahneman D. and Tversky A : "The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice". Science, 211, No 30 (453-458), 1981 "Choices, Values and Frames" American Psychologist, 39 No 4 (341-350), 1984 "Theoretical Notes On the Reality of Cognitive Illusions". Psychological Review, 103, No 3, (582-591), 1996 Kühberger A.: "The Framing of Decisions: A new look at Old Problems". Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 62, No2, (230-240), 1995 Politzer G.: "Reasoning, Judgment and Pragmatics" in Dan Sperber and Ira A. Noveck (ed.) Experimental Prgmatics, Palgrave Macmillan New York (94-115), 2004 Politzer G. and Noveck I.: "Are Conjunction Rule Violations the Result of Conversational Rule Violations?" Journal of Psycholinguistics Research, 20, No.2 (83-103), 1991 Stanovich, K. E., & West, R. F. "Individual differences in framing and conjunction effects." Thinking and Reasoning, No 4, (289–317), 1998 "Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate?" Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 23 (645–726), 2000

51. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 51 Appendix B: The Asian disease problem The cover story  Imagine that the U.S. is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed. Assume that the exact scientific estimates of the consequences of the programs are as follows:  Positive framing  If Program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved.  If Program B is adopted, there is a 1/3 probability that 600 people will be saved, and a 2/3 probability that no people will be saved.  Which of the two programs would you favor?  Negative framing  If Program C is adopted, 400 people will die.  If Program D is adopted, there is a 1/3 probability that nobody will die, and a 2/3 probability that 600 people will die. by Tversky & Kahneman

52. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 52 Appendix B: The Asian disease problem The choice between outcomes should not be dependent on the way in which they are described. The invariance rule

53. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 53 Appendix C: Results Confirmed  Subjects were more likely to make the: “perhaps more” interpretation in the: “positive original” version  57%  than in the: “positive exactly” version  32% prediction A This difference was found to be statistically significant in a logistics regression analysis:  with the version as the predicting variable and the interpretation as the predicted variable  Chi square =12.1, p=0.001 The empirical study - Experiment 1

54. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 54 Confirmed  Subjects were more likely to choose the certain outcome in the: “positive original” version  68%  than in the: “positive exactly” version  52% Results – prediction B This difference was found to be statistically significant in a logistics regression analysis:  with the version as the predicting variable and the choice as the predicted variable  Chi square =5.07, p=0.024 Appendix C: Results The empirical study - Experiment 1

55. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 55 Confirmed  The participants who interpreted the certain outcome as allowing that more than 200 people will be saved were more likely to choose the certain outcome  69%  than the participants who make the standard interpretation of the certain outcome  53% Results – prediction C This difference was found to be statistically significant in a logistics regression analysis:  with the interpretation as the predicting variable and the choice as the predicted variable  Chi square =5.39, p=0.02 Appendix C: Results The empirical study - Experiment 1

56. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 56 Confirmed  Subjects were more likely to make the “perhaps more” interpretation in the “positive original” version  58%  than in the “positive exactly” version  25% Results – prediction A This difference was found to be statistically significant in a logistics regression analysis:  with the interpretation as the predicting variable and the choice as the predicted variable  Chi square =7.77, p=0.005 Appendix C: Results The empirical study - Experiment 2

57. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 57 Confirmed  Subjects were more likely to choose the certain outcome in the “positive original” version  61%  than in the “positive exactly” version  47% Results – prediction B This difference was not found to be statistically significant in a logistics regression analysis:  with the version as the predicting variable and the choice as the predicted variable  Chi square = 2.11, p=0.146 Appendix C: Results The empirical study - Experiment 2

58. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 58 Confirmed  The participants who interpreted the certain outcome as allowing that more than 200 people will be saved were more likely to choose the certain outcome  72%  than the participants who make the standard interpretation of the certain outcome  46% Results – prediction C This difference was found to be statistically significant in a logistics regression analysis:  with the interpretation as the predicting variable and the choice as the predicted variable  Chi square = 4.83, p=0.028 Appendix C: Results The empirical study - Experiment 2

59. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 59 The influence of adding the word “exactly” to the interpretation of the certain outcome: Results – Positive framing Interpretation/ version “Positive original” “Positive exactly” “At least 200”57%50% “Exactly 200”29%47% “At most 200”14%3% Interpretations Appendix C: Results The empirical study - Experiment 3

60. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 60 As in the previous studies  Subjects were more likely to choose the certain outcome in the “positive original” version  63%  than in the “positive exactly” version  53% The proportion of risk averse subjects Results – Positive framing Appendix C: Results The empirical study - Experiment 3

61. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 61 As in the previous studies  The participants who interpreted the certain outcome as allowing that more than 200 people will be saved were more likely to choose the certain outcome  80%  than the participants who make the standard interpretation of the certain outcome  38%  and than the participants who make the interpretation that it is possible that less than 200 people will be saved  17% The correlation between the interpretation and choice Results – Positive framing Appendix C: Results The empirical study - Experiment 3

62. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 62 The influence of adding the word “exactly” on the interpretation of the certain outcome Interpretations Interpretation/ version “Negative original” “Negative exactly” “At least 400”42%43% “Exactly 400”45%40% “At most 400”13%17% Results – Negative framing Appendix C: Results The empirical study - Experiment 3

63. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 63 Contrary to the predictions of the Pragmatic Analysis  the participants who interpreted the certain outcome as allowing that more than 400 people will die, were more likely to choose the certain outcome  28%  than the participants who make the standard interpretation of the certain outcome  19%  and than the participants who make the interpretation that it is possible that less than 400 people will die  11% The correlation between the interpretation and choice Results – Negative framing Appendix C: Results The empirical study - Experiment 3

64. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 64 The influence of adding the word “exactly” on the interpretation of the certain outcome: Results – Positive framing Interpretation/ version “Positive original” “Positive exactly” “At least 200”17%12% “Exactly 200”45%81% “At most 200”17%3% Other21%3% Interpretations Appendix C: Results The empirical study - Experiment 4

65. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 65 As in the previous studies  Subjects were more likely to choose the certain outcome in the “positive original” version  62%  than in the “positive exactly” version  53% The proportion of risk averse subjects Results – Positive framing Appendix C: Results The empirical study - Experiment 4

66. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 66  the participants who interpreted the certain outcome as allowing that more than 200 people will be saved were not more likely to choose the certain outcome.  56%  than the participants who make the standard interpretation of the certain outcome.  59%  And both groups were more likely to choose the certain outcome tan the participants with the: “at most 200” interpretation  40% Appendix C: Results The empirical study - Experiment 4 Results – Positive framing The correlation between the interpretation and choice

67. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 67 The influence of adding the word “exactly” on the interpretation of the certain outcome Interpretations Interpretation/ version “Negative original” “Negative exactly” “At least 400”30%0% “Exactly 400”48%90% “At most 400”15%3% Other7% Results – Negative framing Appendix C: Results The empirical study - Experiment 4

68. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 68 The empirical study - Experiment 4  the participants who interpreted the certain outcome as allowing that more than 400 people will die were more likely to choose the certain outcome.  31%  than the participants who make the standard interpretation of the certain outcome.  12%  But less likely than the participants who make the interpretation that it is possible that less than 400 people will die  40% The correlation between the interpretation and choice Results – Negative framing

69. Pragmatic analysis of the Asian Disease problem by Oshri Weiss oshriweiss@gmail.com 69 Appendix C: The Empirical study Why did you choose this program? (experiment 3, version: “positive original ”)  Subject A: “ Because at least in program A there is an certainty that at least 1/3 of the likely victims will be saved…”  Subject B: “….Other 400 people affect uncertain to die in A are not necessarily predicted to die.”  Subject C (version: “positive exactly ”) : “….also perhaps another measure could be found to supplement program A” Quotes from subjects with alternative constructions