1. Overview: Global and Pakistan’s Water Resources and Challengesby
Ashfaq Mahmood
(Retd Federal Secretary)
18 December 2014 LEAD Cohort 18

2. Organization of Presentation
Global Water Resources
Pakistan’s Water Resources

3. Total volume of Water on Earth is about 1. 4 billion Km3 (1
Total volume of Water on Earth is about 1.4 billion Km3 (1.135 billion MAF)
Freshwater is around 35 million Km3, or about 2.5% of the total volume. ( million MAF)
About 24 million Km3 (27 million MAF) or 70 percent of fresh water is in the form of ice and snow and about 30% is ground water.
Freshwater lakes and rivers contain an estimated million Km3 or around 0.3 %. (0.105million Km3 comprises of: Lakes: 67.5%, Soil Moisture 12%, Atmosphere 9.5%, wet land 8.5%, Rivers 1.5%, Vegetation: 1%)
The total usable freshwater supply for ecosystems and humans is about 0.2 million Km3 of water - less than 1 percent of all freshwater resources.
Water scarcity already affects more than 40 percent of the people on our planet. By 2025, 1.8 billion people and 2/3rd of the world’s population under water stress

5. Phenomenon of Climate Change
Green House Gasses Trap Heat
(CO2,CH4,N2O and Fluorinated Gasses)
Global Warming due to GHG
Climate Change
Major changes in temperature (Global warming) , precipitation, or wind patterns

7. Effects of Climate Change
Increase in air temperature:
1906—2005 by 0.74 C (0.44 C occurring during 1980—2005)
Additional 4 C by 2050
1—7 C by 2070
Increase in sea level:
3—16 cm by 2030
7—50 cm by 2070
Estimated % reduction in precipitation in next 50 Years (2050)
Concentration of rains and snow/glacier melt flows in summer.
Lesser non-monsoon flows and prolonged dry spells (droughts) affecting agriculture.
Increased summer flows in shorter time spans accentuating floods in next few Decades. Shortages in the long run.
Greater Frequency of floods .

8. Effects of Climate Change (Contd)
More
glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF),
Cyclones,
El Ninos,
Heat Waves,
Tornados,
Snow Avalanches,
Dust Storms due to soil erosions,
Tsunamis,
Effects on coastal systems,
Ecosystems (coral reef communities, mangroves, wetland, fish etc) ,
Land slides, etc
Estimated cost of adapting to the impacts of a 2°C rise in global av. temperature is US$70 to $100 billion per year between 2020—2050

9. Some Impacts of Climate Change on Life and Society
Human Life (Affect Poorest of the Poor )
Drinking, sanitation, food/agriculture, health, Industry, Mining
Natural Ecology
Birds, plants, trees, animals, fish, microorganisms, soil and people
Economy
GDP, Industries, Agriculture, Exports, Labour employment,
Hydro Power– lesser capacity , increased variability, increased cost
Poverty, food Insecurity, and electricity prices, urban migration, deterioration of rural life and environments.

10. World Water Challenges
Pressures on Water
Rapid Urbanization
Climate Change
Food Security
Demands of sectors other than Domestic and Agriculture sectors.
Pollution, Quality, Environments, Eco-systems
Current Situation:
85% of the world population lives in the driest half of the planet.
Clean drinking Water not accessible by 780 million people almost 2.5 billion without adequate sanitation.
Agriculture accounts for ~70 to 90 % of global freshwater withdrawals
2 billion people worldwide depend on groundwater, which includes approximately 300 transboundary aquifer systems.
Six to eight million people die annually from the disasters and water-related diseases.
Future Outlook
Declining per capita availability due to population growth.
Predicted increase in food demand of 70% by 2050.
Effects of Climate Change—More intense floods, shortages, glacier melt
Estimated cost of adapting to the impacts of a 2°C rise in global av. temperature is US$70 to $100 billion per year between 2020—2050

11. Water Resources (Pakistan)

12. Major Rivers in Pakistan and India
Occupied-Disputed Territory

13. Indus Basin Replacement Works
R-Q
C-J
M-R
Q-B
T-S
T-P
B-S II
S-M

14. COMMON RIVERS WITH AFGHANISTAN IN KPK

15. Sources of Surface Water
Glacier and Snow Melt
About 80 %of Water is received in Indus System through glacier & snow melt.
Rainfall
Pakistan is one of the world’s most arid countries – over 75% of it receives rainfall less than 250 mm annually and 20% of it less than 125 mm.
3. Seasonal Availability
Availability Kharif: 82%, Rabi: 18%

16. AVERAGE ANNUAL FLOWS OF WESTERN RIVERS (Post Tarbela 1976-2008) (Canal Diversion=104 MAF)

18. Effects of Climate Change (Pakistan)
Glacier melt resulting in more water in next years followed by severe reduction.
Higher degree of variability of water flows
More extreme events like droughts, floods, cloud burst, cyclones, sea water rise, salt intrusion, avalanches etc.
Change in pattern of monsoon systems---shift towards east.

19. Water Use and Demand

20. WATER USE PATTERN
2030
2005

21. Average Water Resource Availability and Use
Surface Water Avail 141 MAF
Down Stream Kotri MAF
River Basin Losses MAF
CANAL DIVERSIONS
104 MAF
Conveyance Losses 46.6 MAF (44.8%)
(Canal & Distributaries 22 MAF (21%)
& Watercourses 24.6 MAF (30%))
CANAL WATER AVAILABLE AT FARM HEAD 57.4 MAF
Ground Water MAF
NET WATER AVAILABILITY AT FARM HEAD MAF
Field Losses 27 MAF (25%)
NET WATER AVAILABILITY FOR CROP CONSUMPTIVE USE 80.8 MAF
Water requirement: MAF
Short fall = =20.9 MAF
If average rainfall= 13.4 MAF,
Deficit= 7.5 MAF
Rainfall Contribution: Depends !
Overall efficiency of use of surface water=.79*.7*.75= 41.5 %. Achievable 55%

22. Land Utilization Total Land Area 79.61 Total Area reported 57.76
Million Hectares
Total Land Area
79.61
Total Area reported
57.76
Forest Area
Total Cultivable Area
33.77
Cultivated Area
Not cultivated but otherwise fit
8-11
Irrigated Area
Canal Irrigated Area
6.81
Canal and Tubewells
7.4
Wells and Tubewells
3.65
Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan ( )

23. Water Requirements and Availability at Farmgate (Estimates)
All Figures in MAF
Sr. No.
SECTOR
Year 2004
Year 2025
Improved yields and efficiencies*
Business as usual 1
Agriculture
111.35
120
135 2
Water use above RIM stations
3.0
6.00 3
Drinking and Sanitation
8.2
12.20 4
Industrial
3.80
Sub-Total
125.55
142
157
Availability (including local water harvested/pumping besides main river water and ground water for agriculture)
113 6
Water shortage 12 29 44 7
Estimated Escapages below Kotri
7.5**
*Assuming 50% increase in crop yields and 22% increase in efficiency
**Tentative figure in the Water Accord was 10 MAF. As per Studies Average figure of 7.5 MAF is adopted.

24. ESCAPAGE BELOW KOTRI HYDROLOGICAL YEAR FROM APRIL TO MARCH
Note: Based on data supplied by I&P Deptt: Govt. of Sindh 24

25. Water Storage Dams

26. Current Live Storage Capacity (MAF)
RESERVOIR
ORIGINAL LIVE STORAGE
LIVE STORAGE 2004
LIVE STORAGE 2014
TARBELLA
9.68 (1976)
7.16
6.45
MANGLA
5.34 (1967)
4.53
6.63—7.39
CHASHMA
0.87 (1971)
0.44
0.28
TOTAL
15.89
12.13
14.12
Loss due to higher operating levels of Tarbela = MAF
Rate of loss at Tarbela = 103,000 Acre Feet per Year
Rate of loss at Mangla = 32,000 Acre Feet per Year
Rate of loss at Chashma = 22,000 Acre Feet per Year
1% of original capacity lost per year.

27. Average Annual flow (MAF) Storage Capacity (MAF)
AVERAGE ANNUAL FLOW AND STORAGE CAPACITY OF DAMS OF SOME MAJOR RIVER BASINS
Sr. No.
River Basin
Average Annual flow (MAF)
No. of Dams
Storage Capacity (MAF)
% age Storage 1
Colorado 12 3
59.62
497 2
Nile 38
132
475
Sutlej Bias
India (Total) 32
750 5
4,636
11.32
245 35 33 4
Yellow River
345 7
68.95 20
Columbia
179 34 19 6
Indus & others Rivers
145
13.64 13
Yangtze
870 8
World
20,000 -
8,000 40

28. Hydro Power Potential : Over 60000 MW (Storage and Run of River)
Installed : 6481 MW
Cost of Generation: 2-6 cents/KWh against cents /KWh for thermal generation
Current Hydro-Thermal Mix : 30:70

29. Productivity & Efficiency of Use of Water

30. Water Productivity

31. Drinking Water

32. Water Quality Status-Pakistan
85% of samples tested were unfit for human consumption Protection Agency, in14 districts of Punjab (EPA)
Surface water sources ( lakes & rivers) have massively been polluted (Tanneries, Chemical Wastes, Domestic Garbage Dump)
75% of water in Islamabad and 87% in Rawalpindi are unsafe (WB-CWRAS Paper 8, 2005).
An excess of arsenic and fluoride concentrations
In Sindh almost 95% of shallow groundwater supplies are bacteriologically contaminated (Pak-SECA 2006).
Health Cost and Lost Earning on account of drinking water, sanitation, hygiene= Rs112 billion/ annum (Over Rs 300 million/Day)

34. Contamination Intrusion Routes Distribution Network

35. Groundwater Arsenic Contamination
Mr. Azad, chronic arsenic patient-Bangladesh Arsenic Patient ( 1100 ppb) from Nawabshah Pakistan

36. Ground Water
Over Mining

37. Summary of
Issues and Challenges

38. Major Water Resource Issues and Challenges (Pakistan)
Declining Water Availability per capita
Future Water Availability to Decline due to Climate Change
More Floods, Droughts, variability of Flows on the Cards
Ground Water Exploitation Need to be Regulated.
Water Shortage Agri: 7.5 MAF (present), 26 MAF (2025)
More Inter-sectoral Competition for Water
Low Productivity and Efficiency of Transmission and Use
Cultivable land available but not yet cultivated.
More Seasonal Variability: Availability Kharif: 85%, Rabi: 15%
New Storages – Victim of Lack of Consensus
Under Utilization of Hydro Generation Potential
Drinking Water : Poor Quality, Inadequate Quantity, Infrastructure, neglect, apathy
Sanitation ???
Trans-boundary water threats
Financing ???

39. Possible Response to Issues and Challenges
Population Control
Prepare for Climate Change. More Dams– Seasonal and Yearly Carry Over
Invest in rehabilitation of infrastructure and regular maintenance.
Use modern technology and practices to improve productivity , efficiency, watershed management conservation, harvesting and re-use
Special Attention to Drinking Water and Sanitation
Protect Trans-boundary Water
Use Media to educate masses
Financing
Price Water properly
Regulators for monitoring quality, curbing wastages, ground water extraction and proper service to ordinary users.
Improve Governance and build Human Resources
Build Knowledge, Collect Knowledge, Disseminate Knowledge
Water has to be on the centre stage

40. THANK YOU