2 Hydro-diplomacy for Water Cooperation between Afghanistan and Pakistan By:Ashfaq Mahmood3 June 2014
3 Organization of Presentation Water Resources of Kabul RiverPotential Projects by Afghanistan on Kabul RiverPakistan’s VulnerabilityClimate ChangeConflict PotentialHydro-diplomacy for Water Cooperation
6 Water Sources of Kabul river Sr NoSub-basinBillion m3MAF% of total flow at border1Logar-Upper Kabul0.50.42.52Panjsher3.32.616.73Chitral10.58.554.54Lower Kabul (including 1-3) at border)19.315.61005Net generated within Afghanistan220.127.116.11Availability at Attock23.5197RabiKharif4.918.515
7 Storage and Power Potential of Kabul River Sr NoSub-basinB m3MAFMWWater Demand1Panjsher2.191.84101/3 rd of water availability2Logar-Upper Kabul1.311.1Twice the water availability3Lower Kabul1.31.07614Total4.83.91171
10 Pakistan’s Vulnerability on Kabul River Water Contribution to Indus = 23.5 bm3(19) MAFWater Received at the Border =19.3 bm3 (15.6 MAF)Contribution of Chitral River = bm3 (8.5 MAF)Contribution from Kabul and other Tributaries = 8.8 bm3 (7.1 MAF)Projected Future Use Potential in Afghanistan = 3.8 bm3 (3.1 MAF)Net Future Availability across the border = 15.4 bm3(12.5 MAF)Existing Rabi and Kharif uses will suffer.
11 Effects of Climate Change Glaciers in the Pamir and Hindu Kush mountains shrunk by 30 % in the last half centuryRising temperatures/global warming will result in at least 10% reduction in precipitation in the next 50 Years.Increased summer flows in shorter time spans accentuating floods in next few years. It will be followed by shortages in the long run.Poverty, food and electricity prices, urban migration affecting millions of people on the cards.At present severe drought at least once in years. This frequency will in increase.
12 Conflict Potential Threat to Existing Uses in Pakistan 13 potential dams in Afghanistan with storage capacity of 4.93 bm3 (4 MAF). Early Kharif and Rabi crops likely to sufferRising water demand in Afghanistan for urban, mining, irrigation and environmental flow (3.9 billion m3/year)Threat of climate change—scarcity. Major brunt to be faced by Pakistan.Possible diversion of Chitral River by PakistanPoor watershed managementLack of hydro metrological data gathering and sharingLack of studies on ground water.Outside Promptings, vested interests.
13 Hydro-Diplomacy with Afghanistan Promote Cooperation and Equitable Sharing of Benefits:Forming Stake Holder’s Fraternity, exchange visits and interactionsSharing of Knowledge and ExperienceJoint Projects , Joint Ventures, Joint StudiesExtend Supporting Hand, establishing water institutions,Data Collection and ManagementFunding for cooperative activitiesMedia ManagementInstitutional Arrangements- - The Driver of Cooperation:Afghan Cell with appropriate funding and staff (re-locate)Pakistan Afghanistan Joint Commission for Water CooperationFormulation of Treaty/Agreement in an atmosphere of mutual cooperation and understanding.
14 ConclusionsEmbark upon a Water Cooperation Initiative to precede negotiations of Treaty.Set up Joint Commission.Provide funds to support cooperative activities.