1. Poli 103A: California Politics Lecture 1 March 29, 2005

3. Course Introduction and Progressivism I: The Recall Today’s version of Progressive institutions 1911 device with ambiguous criteria: corruption vs. dissatisfaction. Second oldest profession. Campaigning in a complex environment Wholesale vs. retail politics. Media in megastate Effects on Policy? Clear reaction against Gray Davis, car tax, and deregulation. Vision for the future not clear.

4. Course Introduction and Progressivism I: The Recall What this course is not about What this course is about Course plan and logistics

5. What This Course is Not About How to be a good citizen. Preface. “We believe that increased participation by an informed citizenry in the politics of California is vitally needed…” Power and Politics in California, John H. Culver and John C. Syer, 1980

6. What This Course is Not About

9. An Introduction to American Politics Begins with the Constitution Under a fixed set of rules, leaders react to an ever more complex society Consensus on the basic features of our political system and what there is to learn

10. What This Course Is About What you need to know in Sacramento Mixture of political science research and political journalism A state where the rules constantly change and no consensus tells us what to teach you

11. Course Plan and Logistics Part I: Political Institutions in Flux Part II: The Politics of Diversity Part III: Perspectives on Policy Theme A: Cycles in California Politics Theme B: What Makes CA Different? Theme C: How Do We Know What We Know?

12. Course Plan and Logistics Midterm on May 3: 25% of grade Paper due on May 26: 30% of grade Initiative campaign plan or policy analysis Final on June 9: 40% of grade “Section” attendance and participation: 5% of grade

13. Course Plan and Logistics Short biographies to begin each class: Extra credit on midterm Required on final Last half hour is discussion section: You must attend four over the quarter Be ready to discuss the readings

14. The Progressive Legacy I: Recall The Purpose Behind the Process All About Arnold Getting on the Ballot Campaign Finance Analyzing the Results Popular Feedback on Populism

15. The Purpose Behind the Process A 1911 constitutional amendment pushed (along with initiative and referendum) by Gov. Hiram Johnson, the recall: Was justified as a way to attack the graft and corruption of the time. Does not specify the type of misdeed that it punishes; a “recallable offense” is whatever a majority says it is.

16. The Purpose Behind the Process: Wall of Shame Targets of Progressive reformers: Sen. Marshall Black (R-Santa Clara,1913) Sen. Edwin Grant (D-San Franciso, 1914) Casualties of the Speakership fight: Assm. Paul Horcher (R-Los Angeles, 1995) Assm. Doris Allen (R-Orange, 1995)

17. The Purpose Behind the Process To recall a statewide officer: Gather signatures of registered voters equal in number to 12% of the last vote for that office. In five counties, gather signatures equal in number to 1% of that county’s vote. To recall a legislator: Equal in number to 20% of district vote.

18. The Purpose Behind the Process: The Dual Ballot Yes or no vote on whether to recall the official in question. Takes a majority (50% + 1 vote) to win. All qualified replacement candidates appear on the same ballot. Only takes a plurality (most votes) to win.

19. The Purpose Behind the Process The 135 replacement candidates got on the ballot with 65 signatures and $3500.

20. All About Arnold Getting on the Ballot Recall petitions have been circulated for every governor, but none had qualified till Davis. From Feb. 5 th to April 24 th, recall proponents collected about 100,000 signatures. They needed to collect 897,156 valid signatures within 160 days.

21. All About Arnold Getting on the Ballot Congressman Darrell Issa (R-Vista) decided to lend his considerable financial resources to the race on April 24 th, and eventually gave $3 million. “I don’t think we took it at all seriously until Darrell Issa gave the money.” – Davis advisor Steve Smith. July: 841,000 voluntary signatures, 1,319,000 through gatherers and mail.

22. All About Arnold: Campaign Finance Unlike federal races, California’s campaigns used to have no limits on the size of contributions. Proposition 34 limited contributions to $21,200. Loopholes: No limits on “independent expenditures.” Candidates allowed to shift funds raised in old days to new campaigns

23. All About Arnold: Campaign Finance Davis’ advantage: Technically, he was opposing an initiative, which cannot be corrupted, so contributions unlimited. Schwarzenegger’s advantage: Who needs contributions when you’re rich? Gave himself $10 million and declared that he would arrive in Sacramento not owing anyone.

24. All About Arnold: $80 Million in 77 Days CandidateTotal Contributions Gray Davis$17 million Arnold Schwarzenegger$21.9 million Cruz Bustamante$12.4 million Independent Expend.$24.1 million

25. All About Arnold: Analyzing the Results Recall Ballot 61.2% turnout. “Yes” won with 55.4% of the vote. About a quarter of Democrats, 45% of Latinos, and 48% of union members supported recall. Replacement Ballot Arnold won with 48.6% of the vote, a 17% margin of victory. He attracted 23% of Democrats and 31% of Latinos.

26. All About Arnold: Analyzing the Results Democrats Did Not Abandon Gray

27. All About Arnold: Party Registration Blue: More than 54% Democratic Registration White: 44%-54% Democratic Red: Less than 44% Democratic Registration

28. All About Arnold: Support for the Recall Blue: Less than 50% Support for Recalling Gray Davis White: 50%-65% Support Red: More than 65% Support for Recalling Gray Davis

29. All About Arnold: Turnout Shift Toward Republicans Was Temporary

30. All About Arnold: Duverger’s Law Kicks In Duverger’s Law: Because voters behave strategically, American-style races always come down to two parties/candidates.

32. Popular Feedback on Populism Public Policy Institute of California poll

33. Popular Feedback on Populism