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PS 103A California Politics Progressive Legacy II: Recall - - Midterm February 10 - - Readings on website.

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Presentation on theme: "PS 103A California Politics Progressive Legacy II: Recall - - Midterm February 10 - - Readings on website."— Presentation transcript:

1 PS 103A California Politics Progressive Legacy II: Recall - - Midterm February Readings on website

2 Progressive Legacy II: Recall The Purpose Behind the Process All About Arnold Getting on the Ballot Campaign Finance Analyzing the Results Popular Feedback on Populism

3 The Purpose Behind the Process Another 1911 constitutional amendment pushed by Gov. Hiram Johnson, the recall: Was justified as a way to attack the graft and corruption of the time. Does not specify the type of misdeed that it punishes; a “recallable offense” is whatever a majority says it is.

4 The Purpose Behind the Process: Wall of Shame Targets of Progressive reformers: Sen. Marshall Black (R-Santa Clara,1913) Sen. Edwin Grant (D-San Franciso, 1914) Casualties of the Speakership fight: Assm. Paul Horcher (R-Los Angeles, 1995) Assm. Doris Allen (R-Orange, 1995)

5 The Purpose Behind the Process To recall a statewide officer: Gather signatures of registered voters equal in number to 12% of the last vote for that office. In five counties, gather signatures equal in number to 1% of that county’s vote. To recall a legislator: Equal in number to 20% of district vote.

6 The Purpose Behind the Process: The Dual Ballot Yes or no vote on whether to recall the official in question. Takes a majority (50% + 1 vote) to win. All qualified replacement candidates appear on the same ballot. Only takes a plurality (most votes) to win.

7 The Purpose Behind the Process The 135 replacement candidates got on the ballot with 65 signatures and $3500.

8 All About Arnold Getting on the Ballot Recall petitions have been circulated for every governor, but none had qualified till Davis. From Feb. 5 th to April 24 th, recall proponents collected about 100,000 signatures. They needed to collect 897,156 valid signatures within 160 days.

9 All About Arnold Getting on the Ballot Congressman Darrell Issa (R-Vista) decided to lend his considerable financial resources to the race on April 24 th, and eventually gave $3 million. “I don’t think we took it at all seriously until Darrell Issa gave the money.” – Davis advisor Steve Smith. July: 841,000 voluntary signatures, 1,319,000 through gatherers and mail.

10 All About Arnold: Campaign Finance Unlike federal races, California’s campaigns used to have no limits on the size of contributions. Proposition 34 limited contributions to $21,200. Loopholes: No limits on “independent expenditures.” Candidates allowed to shift funds raised in old days to new campaigns

11 All About Arnold: Campaign Finance Davis’ advantage: Technically, he was opposing an initiative, which cannot be corrupted, so contributions unlimited. Schwarzenegger’s advantage: Who needs contributions when you’re rich? Gave himself $10 million and declared that he would arrive in Sacramento not owing anyone.

12 All About Arnold: $80 Million in 77 Days CandidateTotal Contributions Gray Davis$17 million Arnold Schwarzenegger$21.9 million Cruz Bustamante$12.4 million Independent Expend.$24.1 million

13 All About Arnold: Analyzing the Results Recall Ballot 61.2% turnout. “Yes” won with 55.4% of the vote. About a quarter of Democrats, 45% of Latinos, and 48% of union members supported recall. Replacement Ballot Arnold won with 48.6% of the vote, a 17% margin of victory. He attracted 23% of Democrats and 31% of Latinos.

14 All About Arnold: Analyzing the Results

15 All About Arnold: Party Registration Blue: More than 54% Democratic Registration White: 44%-54% Democratic Red: Less than 44% Democratic Registration

16 All About Arnold: Support for the Recall Blue: Less than 50% Support for Recalling Gray Davis White: 50%-65% Support Red: More than 65% Support for Recalling Gray Davis

17 All About Arnold: Change in Turnout from 2002 to 2003 Blue: Less than 2% Increase in Turnout of Reg. Voters White: 2%-4% Turnout Boost Red: More than 4% Increase in Turnout of Reg. Voters

18 All About Arnold: Duverger’s Law Kicks In Duverger’s Law: Because voters behave strategically, American-style races always come down to two parties/candidates.

19 Popular Feedback on Populism Public Policy Institute of California poll

20 Popular Feedback on Populism


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