Presentation on theme: "PS 103A California Politics Progressive Legacy II: Recall - - Midterm February 10 - - Readings on website."— Presentation transcript:
PS 103A California Politics Progressive Legacy II: Recall - - Midterm February Readings on website
Progressive Legacy II: Recall The Purpose Behind the Process All About Arnold Getting on the Ballot Campaign Finance Analyzing the Results Popular Feedback on Populism
The Purpose Behind the Process Another 1911 constitutional amendment pushed by Gov. Hiram Johnson, the recall: Was justified as a way to attack the graft and corruption of the time. Does not specify the type of misdeed that it punishes; a “recallable offense” is whatever a majority says it is.
The Purpose Behind the Process: Wall of Shame Targets of Progressive reformers: Sen. Marshall Black (R-Santa Clara,1913) Sen. Edwin Grant (D-San Franciso, 1914) Casualties of the Speakership fight: Assm. Paul Horcher (R-Los Angeles, 1995) Assm. Doris Allen (R-Orange, 1995)
The Purpose Behind the Process To recall a statewide officer: Gather signatures of registered voters equal in number to 12% of the last vote for that office. In five counties, gather signatures equal in number to 1% of that county’s vote. To recall a legislator: Equal in number to 20% of district vote.
The Purpose Behind the Process: The Dual Ballot Yes or no vote on whether to recall the official in question. Takes a majority (50% + 1 vote) to win. All qualified replacement candidates appear on the same ballot. Only takes a plurality (most votes) to win.
The Purpose Behind the Process The 135 replacement candidates got on the ballot with 65 signatures and $3500.
All About Arnold Getting on the Ballot Recall petitions have been circulated for every governor, but none had qualified till Davis. From Feb. 5 th to April 24 th, recall proponents collected about 100,000 signatures. They needed to collect 897,156 valid signatures within 160 days.
All About Arnold Getting on the Ballot Congressman Darrell Issa (R-Vista) decided to lend his considerable financial resources to the race on April 24 th, and eventually gave $3 million. “I don’t think we took it at all seriously until Darrell Issa gave the money.” – Davis advisor Steve Smith. July: 841,000 voluntary signatures, 1,319,000 through gatherers and mail.
All About Arnold: Campaign Finance Unlike federal races, California’s campaigns used to have no limits on the size of contributions. Proposition 34 limited contributions to $21,200. Loopholes: No limits on “independent expenditures.” Candidates allowed to shift funds raised in old days to new campaigns
All About Arnold: Campaign Finance Davis’ advantage: Technically, he was opposing an initiative, which cannot be corrupted, so contributions unlimited. Schwarzenegger’s advantage: Who needs contributions when you’re rich? Gave himself $10 million and declared that he would arrive in Sacramento not owing anyone.
All About Arnold: $80 Million in 77 Days CandidateTotal Contributions Gray Davis$17 million Arnold Schwarzenegger$21.9 million Cruz Bustamante$12.4 million Independent Expend.$24.1 million
All About Arnold: Analyzing the Results Recall Ballot 61.2% turnout. “Yes” won with 55.4% of the vote. About a quarter of Democrats, 45% of Latinos, and 48% of union members supported recall. Replacement Ballot Arnold won with 48.6% of the vote, a 17% margin of victory. He attracted 23% of Democrats and 31% of Latinos.
All About Arnold: Analyzing the Results
All About Arnold: Party Registration Blue: More than 54% Democratic Registration White: 44%-54% Democratic Red: Less than 44% Democratic Registration
All About Arnold: Support for the Recall Blue: Less than 50% Support for Recalling Gray Davis White: 50%-65% Support Red: More than 65% Support for Recalling Gray Davis
All About Arnold: Change in Turnout from 2002 to 2003 Blue: Less than 2% Increase in Turnout of Reg. Voters White: 2%-4% Turnout Boost Red: More than 4% Increase in Turnout of Reg. Voters
All About Arnold: Duverger’s Law Kicks In Duverger’s Law: Because voters behave strategically, American-style races always come down to two parties/candidates.
Popular Feedback on Populism Public Policy Institute of California poll