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2012 Season Kick-Off Pala Mesa Resort January 12, 2012.

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Presentation on theme: "2012 Season Kick-Off Pala Mesa Resort January 12, 2012."— Presentation transcript:

1 2012 Season Kick-Off Pala Mesa Resort January 12, 2012

2 Agenda Good Agricultural Practices Country trends Volume summary US market trends Index marketing Harvest recommendations & success factors Price expectations Long term outlook Questions

3 Good Agricultural Practices Why do growers need to implement? Food safety illnesses and deaths – cantaloupes, spinach, jalapeno, processed guacamole, etc… New FDA guidelines Customer concerns – Costco, Wal-Mart, Chipotle… All links in the distribution chain are exposed; growers, shippers, third party auditors, retailers and food service customers GAP audits across the industry mitigate the risk that individual growers and the avocado industry will suffer a fatal blow from a food safety incident

4 Good Agricultural Practices What is GAP? Grower Field sanitation Worker hygiene Agricultural inputs – water, fertilizer, mulch, etc… Employee training Record keeping Harvest Crews Worker hygiene Field sanitation Equipment sanitation Training Record keeping

5 Good Agricultural Practices What are my options? Work under CAC guidelines CAC rebate CDFA auditor under USDA contract www.CaliforniaAvocadoGrowers.com/gap Work with a third party auditor Primus NSF Agriculture

6 Country Trends - California Season = November to October 2012 crop up 34% 2011 = 287 m lbs. (carryout removed) 2012 = 385 m lbs. 2011 heavy to south vs. 2012 heavy to north Fruit size = normal On tree quality = good – limited trips damage Acreage stable (increasing in North/decreasing in South, nurseries sold out)

7 Country Trends - Mexico Season = July to June 2012 crop up 20% 2011 = 585 m lbs. 2012 = 700 m lbs. Acreage increasing in Michoacán and Jalisco Mexican and Asian markets consume Mexican avocados Majority destined for US market Currently shipping at high rates

8 Country Trends – Chile Season = July to June 2012 crop up 25% 2011 = 120 m lbs. 2012 = 150 m lbs. Acreage stable to slightly increasing (3%/year) Chilean, European, Argentinian markets expanding Smaller % of production coming to US Inconsistent supply in 2011

9 Country Trends - Peru Season = May (?) to September 2012 volume up 450% 2011= 18 m lbs. (partial season) 2012 = 80 m lbs. (full season) Europe will receive 80 m lbs. of Peruvian fruit Acreage increasing 5%-10% per year

10 Avocado Volume in US by Country Millions of pounds Country Acres 2011 2012% Change California 60 k 287 385 34% Mexico 146 k 585 700 20% Chile 74 k 120 150 25% Peru 20 k 18 80 444% Others 10 10 - (D.R. & N.Z.) Total 300 k 1,020 1,325 30% Weekly Ave.19.6 25.5

11 US Market Trends US market consumption is growing at an estimated 10% per year Current “sweet spot” is 20 to 24 million pounds per week Avocado holidays, Super-bowl, Cinco de Mayo, 4 th of July can take up to 30 million pounds per week

12 US Avocado Market Trends Market will continue to grow due to: Large number of households that can begin or expand their avocado usage Quality product Health benefits Increased usage and cache (indulgence) Money maker for retailers and food service

13 US Avocado Market Trends California has invested in the market since the 1960’s Today $30-$40 million are spent each year marketing avocados California Avocado Commission Hass Avocado Board Mexican Hass Avocado Importers Association Chilean Avocado Importers Association Peruvian Avocado Board APEAM

14 Index Marketing Concentrate on Avocados in the US market 10% of overall avocado market Packinghouse/storage/ripening in California Storage /ripening in Denver, Texas & Pennsylvania

15 Index Marketing Retail Customers = 65% Food service = 15% Wholesale = 25% Nationwide sales Concentrate on program business with major avocado users

16 Index Marketing Major Customers Costco, Safeway, Kroger, Sam’s, Supervalu, Albertson’s, Stater Brothers, Harmon’s, Sprouts, Sunflower, Wakefern, Fiesta Marts, QFC, Chipotle, Rubio’s, Baja Fresh, Fresh Point, Markon, Restaurant Depot Continually prospecting and improving the base Index sales staff incentive based upon superior returns

17 Key Success Factors Volume will be up 30% In most periods there will be three countries in the market Monitor market Shipment rates & inventories Communicate with Index field staff Understand shifting import seasons Timing of Peru’s start Timing of Chilean finish and start Develop a plan and communicate the plan to your fieldman

18 Harvest Recommendations Size pick 48’s and larger Harvest throughout the season Avoid putting your eggs all in one basket (market) Develop and communicate a plan (but be flexible based upon opportunity or lack of) Do not put off securing labor until the last minute Communicate with your Index fieldman

19 Price Expectations Year Total Calif. Calif. Ave. Calif. Market Crop Share Return (000 lbs.) (000lbs.) 2008 1,030 329 32% $1.00/lb. 2009 1,085 175 16% $1.14/lb. 2010 1,250 535 42% $0.75/lb. 2011 1,141 303 27% $1.52/lb. 2012 1,325 385 19% $1.00-1.10/lb.

20 Long Term Avocado Outlook Demand for Hass will continue to grow Supply will increase, but demand should outpace supply Prices will remain attractive Index is positive about the future of the California avocado industry

21 Index Seminar Series February – Pruning June - ? Suggestion for topics? Ideas to improve?

22 2012 Season Kick-Off Thank you! Questions?


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