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GREX APPLES & PEARS 10 March 2008 Brussels. Southern Hemisphere crop forecasts 2008.

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Presentation on theme: "GREX APPLES & PEARS 10 March 2008 Brussels. Southern Hemisphere crop forecasts 2008."— Presentation transcript:

1 GREX APPLES & PEARS 10 March 2008 Brussels

2 Southern Hemisphere crop forecasts 2008

3 Southern hemisphere crop forecasts Apples Argentina

4 Southern hemisphere crop forecasts Pears Argentina

5 Southern hemisphere crop forecasts  Though the current season is not so mild, it foresees good quality standards.  The control programs against codling moths are increasing and consolidating as an effective technique against the disease.  Pear harvest started 21 January with 1 week delay because social conflicts with fruit pickers. Apple harvest started 28 January.  Late rains and delayed picking have affected the forecasted crop downwards by approximately 3%. Argentina Notes on 2008 season:

6 Southern hemisphere crop forecasts Australia Apples

7 Southern hemisphere crop forecasts Australia Pears

8 Southern hemisphere crop forecasts Seasonal conditions have been much more favourable for the 2008 crop, quality and size of all varieties should be better than Growing conditions have been milder with more rainfall in most areas supporting excellent fruit quality in There have also been some rationalisation of plantings in some areas, most notably the removal of Williams pears in the Goulburn Valley. Australia Notes on 2008 season:

9 Southern hemisphere crop forecasts Brazil Apples

10 Southern hemisphere crop forecasts Winter was one of the best of the last 10 years. This season has been marked so far by local heavy rains during the blooming, all regions were not affected the same way, a reduction of 10% compared to last year is estimated. Blossom was concentrated. Quality is considered good and size above average. Colour is considered very good. Hail hasn’t been a major preoccupation so far. Regularity of rain during the season has been good. No extreme temperatures so far. Picking has started week 5 and on week 6 all growers are full speed, one week earlier than estimated. Effect of this advance on crop estimate? Brazil Notes on 2008 season:

11 Southern hemisphere crop forecasts Chile Apples

12 Southern hemisphere crop forecasts Expected uplift in the exports of apples in regards to the previous season 6 – 8 % uplift Galas, Fujis and red delicious expected to grow the most In general the size of the fruit seems to be normal however given the high temperatures in December and January, the size could be affected. The incidence of sun spots could also occur, at the same level as last year. Higher incidence of apples being diverted to local agro – industry and processing given increase in local market prices. The production of apples in general may be a week later than last season. Slow movement seen on the European market so far – whilst local European stock is up by 5% this season. Need for caution. Importers turning toward Eastern Europe in bid to alleviate the market, given lower production and stock levels in this region. Notes on 2008 Season Chile

13 Southern hemisphere crop forecasts Chile Pears

14 Southern hemisphere crop forecasts Expected normal season for pears Slight uplift in terms of volumes (3 – 4%) Main varieties to register increases in export volumes are Forelle and Coscia, and to a lesser degree Abate Fatel and Beurre Bosc. Green varieties will most probably be more evenly distributed in terms of sizes, in regards to last season Harvest of pear varieties (Coscia) expected to be 1 week later compared to last season. Notes on 2008 Season Chile

15 Southern hemisphere crop forecasts New Zealand Apples

16 Southern hemisphere crop forecasts New Zealand Pears

17 Southern hemisphere crop forecasts Notable trend for NZ is a reduction in Braeburn and an increase in Jazz. Spring frosts in Hawkes Bay have reduced the NZ crop 18,000 tonnes less than Most affected variety is Braeburn. Size is similar to 2007 Harvest looks to be up to one week later than 2007 The NZ dollar is as strong against the US$ as last year. It is likely that exporters will look to Europe and Asia where possible for markets. New Zealand Notes on 2008 season:

18 Southern hemisphere crop forecasts South Africa Apples

19 Southern hemisphere crop forecasts South Africa Pears

20 Southern hemisphere crop forecasts Decreasing trend in Granny and Golden hectares seem to have stabilised. Decreasing trend in total hectares for both apples and pears expected to stop during 2008 and possible increases over the next 3-5 years. Forelle exports expected to grow for at least next 5-8 years (due to increase in hectares). Experienced very good winter – adequate cold units and enough water Flood damage to Langkloof production area, but this will not have a severe impact on total production. Producers have been made aware of possibility of smaller fruit. Exchange rate favourable for exports at the moment (hopefully it will stay stable throughout the season). Sharp increase in input costs, especially transport (road and shipping) as well as direct production costs. Season approximately days late South Africa Notes on 2008 season:

21 Southern Hemisphere crop forecasts Consolidated figures – total production Apples Pears

22 Southern Hemisphere crop forecasts Consolidated figures – export production Apples Pears

23 Southern Hemisphere exports

24 International apples and pears markets Exchange rates - € vs $

25 International apples and pears markets Exchange rates – SH currencies

26 Southern Hemisphere exports Apples

27 EU License monitoring system Comparison with SHAFFE data (w 41) CountriesSHAFFE dataLicense monitoring Argentina Brasil Chile New Zealand South Africa TOTAL


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