2. Aviation Meteorology A Northwest Airlines Perspective Tom Fahey, Manager Meteorology American Meteorological Society - Memphis Chapter 20 September 2005 Memphis, TN

3. MEM September 2005 - 2 Northwest Airlines Perspective General Introduction to NWA NWA System Operations Control NWA Meteorology Roles and Products

4. MEM September 2005 - 3 Northwest & KLM Alliance 1990’s

5. MEM September 2005 - 4 2004 NWA - Member of SkyTeam

6. The SOC

7. MEM September 2005 - 6 NWA System Operations Control SOC Crew Coord. Customer Svc Flight Dispatch Load Control Maintenance Meteorology Navigation Data Ops Planning Ops Analysis Perf Engineering Implement, Mitigate &/or Recover

8. MEM September 2005 - 7 SOC - Responsibilities Focus on “Day of Operation” 2 Main Causes of Flight Schedule Disruptions Maintenance Weather SOC will take action based on 12hr Fcst - Not a 2 day Fcst

9. MEM September 2005 - 8 NWA Meteorology Roles Support Efficiency Support Safety Deliver Useful Products & Services

10. MEM September 2005 - 9 NWA Meteorology Roles A Historical Perspective 1985 Route Selection & Wind Fcsting 1990 Terminal Forecasting & Verification 1995 Fcsts Supporting Stn Deicing 2000 En Route Tstrms & Air Traffic Mgmnt 2000 Tropical Strm Fcst Supporting Stn Ops 1985-2005 Fcsts For Turbc Avoidance

11. Operational Efficiency

12. MEM September 2005 - 11 Operational Efficiency NWA Historical Perspective 1980’s Flight Planning for En Route - Manual Wind Forecasts by Meteorologist - Route Selection by Meteorologist 1990’s Terminal Area Operations - Individual Flight Focus - Currently 3 TAF’s by NWA & Rest from NWS Mid 1990 - Current System Efficiency - CDM (Collaborative Decision Making)

13. MEM September 2005 - 12 CCFP (Collaborative Convective Forecast Product) 1998 Test Lead by NWA 1999 Operational @NWS AWC Since 2003 Issued every 2 hrs 2, 4, & 6 Hour Fcsts Used by Traffic Flow Mngmnt Collaborative Forecast - CWSU’s @ FAA ARTCC’s - Environment Canada - Airline Meteorologists - NWS AWC

14. MEM September 2005 - 13 CCFP CCFP Purpose: Identify En Route Airspace Impacted Significantly.

15. MEM September 2005 - 14 Collaborative Decision Making Tstrm Routing - Terminal Area  Flt Dispatchers & Pilots @ an Airline and Air Traffic Managers @ FAA & Airline use Fcsts & Obs to decide on routes around tstrms when departing an airport.

16. Safety & Efficiency

17. MEM September 2005 - 16 NWA Meteorology Products Fcsts Supporting Safety & Efficiency - Air Traffic Management During Convection - Station Ops During Deicing - Station Ops During Tropical Activity - Clear Air &Terrain Induced Turbc Avoidance

18. MEM September 2005 - 17 Preflight Routing-Tstrm Avoid Preferred Route for time & burn.

19. MEM September 2005 - 18 Preflight Routing-Tstrm Avoid White Line most days. Green Line today.

20. MEM September 2005 - 19 Station Ops During Deicing Name this Airport: AMS ? DTW ? IND ? MEM ? MKE ? MSP ? NRT ? Meteorology Fcsts for 5 NWA hub airports - Which Ones?

21. MEM September 2005 - 20 Aviation Safety Requires Deicing

22. MEM September 2005 - 21 What Station? Deicing Fcsts Support Efficiency Decision Support - Staffing - Equipment Prep - Flight Thinning

23. MEM September 2005 - 22 Winter Weather Depiction Covers 5 Hub areas & E. Coast stns

24. MEM September 2005 - 23 Tropical Weather Depiction Also Issued for East Pacific (btwn Mexico & HNL), Asia Pacific & India

25. MEM September 2005 - 24 Clear & Mtn Wave Turbulence Avoidance NWA’s Turbulence Plot System - Meteorologist Forecasting Procedures - Preflight Graphics & Outlooks - For Route Selection by Dispatchers - En Route Updates to Dispatchers & Pilots

26. MEM September 2005 - 25 1. 700mb wind >30kts - wave develops 2. Wave begins to propagate vertically if 500mb/700mb wind ratio 1.5-2.0 & Stable layer at or near Mtn peaks 3. Heights begin packing near surface 4. Upper level waves reach tropopause & begin to break and reflect back down 5. Downslope windstorm ensues. 700mb 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Vertical Propagating Breaking Waves. Waves: Step 1 Starts @ Mt Peaks Step 2 & 3 Develops Vertically

27. MEM September 2005 - 26 Severe Rotor turb Vertically propagating Breaking mountain wave Turbulence (+) Mountain top Stable layer 2 Layers of Focus Mtn Wave Fcst Procedures Model

28. MEM September 2005 - 27 Preflight Graphics A General Overview CAT & Mtn Waves

29. MEM September 2005 - 28 The Turbulence Plot Messages The Details - Continuous Updates Preflight Graphics - For Pilot & Dispatcher En Route Updates - For Dispatcher & Text for Pilot 8 Hazards Including Including Clear & Mtn Wave Turbc Dispatchers’ Tool ASD

30. MEM September 2005 - 29 The Turbulence Plot Messages Pilots’ Tool Web Wx

31. Conclusion

32. MEM September 2005 - 31 Safety & Efficiency Driven by Conditions at Airport & TAF - TAF Ceiling & Visibility: Require Fuel for an Alternate - Airport Congestion: Snow, Tstrms or Wind Velocity Driven by Conditions En Route - Air Traffic Mngmt & Congestion During Convection - Clear Air &Terrain Induced Turbce Avoidance - Convection Hazard Avoidance  Fuel Loading Decisions

33. Questions?