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Modeling Urban Water Management: Using Climate Change Information Margaret Hahn and Richard Palmer University of Washington Department of Civil and Environmental.

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Presentation on theme: "Modeling Urban Water Management: Using Climate Change Information Margaret Hahn and Richard Palmer University of Washington Department of Civil and Environmental."— Presentation transcript:

1 Modeling Urban Water Management: Using Climate Change Information Margaret Hahn and Richard Palmer University of Washington Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

2 Contents Project Area and Background –Interconnection of Everett, Seattle and Tacoma Project process –Linked models Results of Reservoir Management model –Annual minimum storage Impacts on planning process –Existing plans may not be sufficient

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4 Tacoma Seattle Intertie HAH Reservoir Pipeline 1 Pipeline 5 TSI Cedar Reservoir Lake Washington Lake Youngs TACOMA SKCRWA SEATTLE Pipeline 4 Pipeline 2 Revised from Nelligan-Doran, 1999 N

5 Everett Seattle Intertie ESSL TPL 1 TPL 2 Tolt Reservoir Seattle Everett Pipeline 5 Pipelines 2-4 Clearview Pipeline Snohomish County Spada Lake Reservoir Proposed ESI Alignment King County N

6 Planning and Management Analysis 2020 and 2040 forecasted demands 2020 and 2040 climate change based stream flows –PCM –ECHAM Status quo system configuration Tacoma Seattle Intertie Everett Seattle Intertie

7 Overall Analysis Process Meteorological data Hydrology model Calibration Climate Shift Impacts Evaluation Precip and temp DHSVM Historic vs Simulated Downscaled GCM CRYSTAL model

8 DHSVM Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model

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12 CRYSTAL Cascade Regional Yield Simulation and Analysis Model Simulation model of Puget Sound water supply Considers future demands, policies, supplies and infrastructures Uses weekly time step Developed in Powersim

13 Picture of Crystal

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16 Planning and Management Analysis 2020 and 2040 forecasted demands 2020 and 2040 climate change based stream flows –PCM –ECHAM Status quo system configuration Tacoma Seattle Intertie Everett Seattle Intertie

17 Results Compare –minimum annual storage –number of shortfalls –duration of shortfalls Reliability –43 year record –any shortfall is considered a failure –no demand modification

18 Chester Morse Reservoir

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26 Status QuoTS IntertieTS & ES Intertie 76% 23%38% 83%23%40%100%95% Annual Reliability

27 Planning Implications Ongoing regional planning efforts are important TSI will provide only a portion of supply needed Climate change results imply regional needs for cooperation and new approaches Without new supply or dramatic changes in demand, system reliability will be unacceptable

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