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Mesoscale Investigations and Modeling in the Northern Mid-Atlantic Paul J. Croft and Shing Yoh.

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Presentation on theme: "Mesoscale Investigations and Modeling in the Northern Mid-Atlantic Paul J. Croft and Shing Yoh."— Presentation transcript:

1 Mesoscale Investigations and Modeling in the Northern Mid-Atlantic Paul J. Croft and Shing Yoh

2 Operational interest & concern Operational interest & concern  Watch, Warn, HWO, Others (hazards or not) High Population Region & Customers High Population Region & Customers  Density, Diversity, Dependence Climate regions & Transition Zones Climate regions & Transition Zones  Physiography, Land Use, Seasonal Progression Characteristic Patterns & Phenomena Characteristic Patterns & Phenomena  Behaviors in Space & Time Specification Important Specification Important  Conceptual Understanding, Forecasts & Operations, Verification, & Modeling Mesoscale Variations…

3 Items to consider… Cool season severe weather Cool season severe weather Winter season fog (Dec-Jan-Feb) Winter season fog (Dec-Jan-Feb) Air Quality Index (spring-summer) Air Quality Index (spring-summer) October tropical cyclones (NJ) October tropical cyclones (NJ) Rain-snow line (Dec-Jan-Feb) Rain-snow line (Dec-Jan-Feb) Sea breeze (spring-summer) Sea breeze (spring-summer) Summer season convective initiation, distribution, coverage Summer season convective initiation, distribution, coverage Lightning patterns (Jun-Jul-Aug) Lightning patterns (Jun-Jul-Aug) Intention Examine, from an operational perspective, the types of data & analyses that would best assist a forecaster in the spatial & temporal specification of the resultant sensible weather conditions & to determine how these vary with time as a function of local effects (e.g., physiography), mesoscale features, & the prevailing synoptic scale flow Select Significant Features/Issues Relevance to Region & Users Opportunity for Collaboration Research Collective & Community

4 Methods to use… Composite Analysis Composite Analysis GIS Mapping GIS Mapping Observational Data Observational Data Remote Sensing Data Remote Sensing Data Online Data Sets Online Data Sets Select Parameters Select Parameters Statistical Analysis Statistical Analysis Evolution & Conceptual Evolution & Conceptual …and need for modeling! Localized – Scattered - Widespread o Independent Study o Students Partnering with Faculty o External Support

5 Results & Features AQI Patterns October Tropical Rain-Snow Line Sea Breeze “Family” Convective Initiation, Coverage, Lightning Air Quality Monitoring Sites Initiates, Evolution, Coverage Synoptic Regime, Base State Flow

6 WRF: Operational & Research Investigations What – WRF ARW v2.0.3 Where – Northeastern US, centered over New Jersey Why – Mesoscale feature behaviors, characteristics & dynamics How – Students & Partners Outcomes – Real-time data with numeric analyses for operational forecasting and research diagnostics Grid size : 100x100x31 Grid spacing : 15 km Model forecasts start at 00Z (7:00 p.m. EST) using NCEP NAM-ETA 00 UTC analysis Boundary conditions : every 6 hours from NCEP NAM-ETA 00 UTC forecast

7 Kean University WRF 36h forecast (2005/08 to 2006/06 Configuration) Model Physics Microphysics: Ferrier microphysics Long wave: RRTM scheme Short wave: Dudhia scheme Surface layer: Monin-Obukhov (Janjic-Eta) Land surface: thermal diffusion Boundary layer: YSU Cumulus physics: Kain-Fritsch scheme Post analysis wrf2gem: WRF netCDF to GEMPAK converter Unidata GEMPAK Analysis Program Microsoft Excel Model Statistics Interpolated (Unidata GEMAPK gdgsfc) model surface forecasts to 16 ASOS observation sites (New Jersey and surrounding cities) Comparisons were made for hourly WRF forecast 2 meter temperature, 2 meter dewpoint, sea level pressure and 10 meter wind with observations at ASOS stations

8 Kean University WRF Configuration – now & future… Update to WRF ARW v2.1.2 WRF domain – expand grid size to 120x116x31 Grid Spacing held at 15 km Model forecasts start at 00Z (7:00 p.m. EST) based on NCEP NAM-WRF 00 UTC analysis Boundary conditions: every 6 hours from NCEP NAM-WRF 00 UTC forecast WRF Model Physics – unchanged Addition of NJWXNET (high resolution mesoscale observations GIS for geographical & other physiographical databases

9 Relationships Significant Phenomena with… Synoptic Regimes Synoptic Regimes Physiographic Features Physiographic Features Operational Analysis Operational Analysis Seasonal/Diurnal/Event Progression Seasonal/Diurnal/Event Progression Operational Relevance using… Behaviors & Timeline Behaviors & Timeline Features & Characteristics Features & Characteristics Family/Spectra of Phenomenal Attributes & Conceptual Model for Numerical Modeling Family/Spectra of Phenomenal Attributes & Conceptual Model for Numerical Modeling Interactions with Features Interactions with Features

10 Undergraduate Students… The research investigations form the basis of the SECURED program… Student Educational Collective for Undergraduate Research Experiences and Development at Kean University Student Educational Collective for Undergraduate Research Experiences and Development at Kean University Collectively… Kean University Operational Undergraduate Research in Meteorology & Professional Activities and Collaborative Training KU-OUR-METPACT Growth through Research in Operational Weather – Training Holistically GROWTH

11 Partners… Department of Geology and Meteorology has established a variety of partnerships in the region… National Weather Service Office of the New Jersey State Climatologist Private Sector & Local Interests Others… Tailor research to operational needs and outcomes Tailor research to operational needs and outcomes External & internal support (SpF Program Kean University) External & internal support (SpF Program Kean University) Student stipends, supplies and/or equipment relative to the research activities, conference travel, other costs Student stipends, supplies and/or equipment relative to the research activities, conference travel, other costs

12 Operational Applications & Our Future Outreach… Local Communities Local Communities K-12 Education K-12 Education Kean University faculty, students, non-majors… Kean University faculty, students, non-majors… Professional Organizations… Professional Organizations… Future Work… Expansion of studies Collaborative planning and performance of research and professional activities with students Numerical Modeling and Investigations continue… Conceptual Model development…

13 Thanks! Acknowledgements Department of Geology & Meteorology Faculty & Staff, Students and Majors, Alumni Kean University Meteorology Program KU Upward Bound Program Center for Earth Science Education KU – Epsilon Corps Program

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