1. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 1 Evaluation of WRF Using High-Resolution Soil Initial Conditions from the NASA Land Information System University of Maryland WRF Workshop, 14 September 2007 Presented by: Jonathan L. Case Project overview / Hypothesis Experiment design Results –Land Information System vs. Eta comparison –Impacts on short-term numerical forecasts Summary / Future Work

2. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 2 Project Overview Hypothesis: Can short-term mesoscale numerical forecasts of sensible weather elements be improved by using optimally-tuned, high-resolution soil fields? Project Goals: Investigate and evaluate the potential benefits of using high-resolution land surface data derived from NASA systems and tools on regional short-term numerical guidance (0  24 hours) –Use LIS software to initialize soil temperature and moisture in the WRF model –Examine one month period with relatively benign weather Isolate influence of land-atmosphere interactions May 2004 over Florida peninsula

3. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 3 Experiment Design LIS offline simulation using Noah LSM –Nested 9-km/3-km grid domain over SE U.S. –Simulation from 1 May 2002 to 1 June 2004 –Output every 12 hours during May 2004 to initialize WRF runs –Atmospheric forcing datasets North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS; hourly, ~14 km) Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS; 6-hourly, ~52 km) GDAS used where NLDAS forcing is missing Compare regional WRF simulations with high-resolution LIS soil data to WRF runs with Eta model soil data –Calculate verification statistics at 80 surface stations –Plot fields to compare phenomenology differences

4. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 4 Common characteristics –Nested grids: 9-km and 3-km spacing –Noah LSM –Daily 24-hour forecasts during May 2004 initialized at 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC –Atmospheric initial & boundary conditions from NCEP Eta model on 40-km grid Differences –Control WRF: Initial soil data from Eta model –LIS/WRF experiment: Initial soil data from 2+ year LIS run on exact WRF grids Control WRF and LIS/WRF Configuration 9-km 3-km

5. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 5 Daily 0-10 cm initial soil moisture (%) (0000 UTC values during May 2004) Eta soil moisture LIS soil moisture Difference (LIS – Eta)

6. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 6 Daily 0-10 cm initial soil moisture (%) (0000 UTC values during May 2004) Eta soil moisture LIS soil moisture Difference (LIS – Eta) LIS Substantially Drier Much more detail in LIS (as expected) LIS drier, especially over N. FL & S. GA LIS slightly more moist over Everglades

7. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 7 Daily 0-10 cm initial soil temperature (°C) (0000 UTC values during May 2004) Eta soil temperature LIS soil temperature Difference (LIS – Eta) LIS systematically cooler over most of domain

8. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 8 0-10 cm initial soil moisture (%) (1200 UTC 6 May 2004) Eta soil moisture LIS soil moisture Difference (LIS – Eta)

9. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 9 Sample Sea Breeze Evolution Differences (9-hour forecast valid 2100 UTC 6 May)

10. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 10 Sample Sea Breeze Evolution Differences (10-hour forecast valid 2200 UTC 6 May)

11. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 11 Sample Sea Breeze Evolution Differences (11-hour forecast valid 2300 UTC 6 May)

12. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 12 Sample Sea Breeze Evolution Differences (12-hour forecast valid 0000 UTC 7 May)

13. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 13 Sample Sea Breeze Evolution Differences (Meteogram plots at 40J and CTY)

14. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 14 Verification Stats: 0000 UTC Cycle (29 forecasts @ 80 surface stations) LIS/WRF runs reduced RMS errors by a few tenths of a degree over most forecast hours Nocturnal warm bias and daytime cold bias both improved Not much change in dewpoint verification stats LIS/WRF daytime dewpoints about 0.5°C lower than control WRF Wind Speed (not shown): LIS/WRF improved nocturnal high bias

15. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 15 Summary / Preliminary Conclusions Configured and tested LIS/WRF on Florida case –Initial soil fields generated on exact WRF grids –LIS generated soil fields cooler and drier than Eta model Simulated atmosphere sensitive to changes in soil characteristics provided by LIS –Demonstrated positive improvement in sea-breeze prediction on 6 May –Improvements in diurnal prediction of 2-m temperatures during whole month (both 0000 and 1200 UTC forecast cycles)

16. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 16 Backup Slides

17. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 17 Proposed Future Activities with LIS/WRF Merge MODIS sea-surface temperatures with LIS soil data Study impacts of LIS soil data on convective initiation –Different regional domains & cases –Varying weather regimes (e.g. supercells vs. air-mass storms) New case study period over Tennessee Valley –Very warm March followed by killing freeze in early April 2007 –Use real-time MODIS greenness fraction products in LIS/WRF system Regional modeling ensembles –Summertime forecast sensitivity to soil initial condition perturbations –Run different LSMs within LIS/WRF for ensemble members Pathway to operational regional LIS/WRF runs

18. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 18 Alabama Freeze Case: April 2007

19. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 19 Alabama Freeze Case: April 2007 Proposal: Use real greenness fraction data in LIS/WRF simulations, derived from MODIS vegetation index composite products Measure impact on WRF forecasts compared to climo datasets

20. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 20 Soil Moisture: Grid-Wide Stats; Land Points LIS is a few % drier than Eta model in volumetric soil moisture Variation about mean is very similar to Eta model soil moisture

21. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 21 Soil Temp: Grid-Wide Stats; Land Points LIS 0-10 cm soil temperatures typically cooler than Eta at 00z LIS 0-10 cm soil temperatures about the same or slightly warmer at 12z LIS deeper soil temperatures consistently colder than Eta

22. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 22 Sample Sea Breeze Evolution Differences (Forecasts from 1200 UTC 6 May Simulations)

23. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 23 Verification Stats: 1200 UTC Cycle (Surface station 40J)

24. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 24 Verification Stats: 1200 UTC Cycle (Surface station CTY)