1. Mesoscale Modeling and Regional Climate Da-Lin Zhang Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland

2. Outline: 1. The MM5 Modeling system 2. Mesoscale modeling research at UMD 3. Daily real-time forecasts at UMD 4. Regional climate research (GEWEX/GCIP) 5. Discussion topics

3. 1. The PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) 3D, nonhydrostatic,  -coordinated, multi-nested; 3D, nonhydrostatic,  -coordinated, multi-nested; Deep & shallow convective parameterizations; Deep & shallow convective parameterizations; Cloud-resolving microphysics parameterizations; Cloud-resolving microphysics parameterizations; Planetary boundary-layer parameterizations; Planetary boundary-layer parameterizations; Soil/vegetation & land surface parameterizations; Soil/vegetation & land surface parameterizations; Atmospheric radiation & cloud-radiation interaction; and Atmospheric radiation & cloud-radiation interaction; and Coupled ocean-wave-atmosphere. Coupled ocean-wave-atmosphere.

4. 2. Mesoscale modeling research at UMD Study the inner-core structures and the processes taking place in squall lines, hurricanes, flooding rainfall convective systems, winter storms, and oceanic cyclones; Study the inner-core structures and the processes taking place in squall lines, hurricanes, flooding rainfall convective systems, winter storms, and oceanic cyclones; Simulate a mesocyclone associated with the College Park tornado of Sept. 24, 2001; Simulate a mesocyclone associated with the College Park tornado of Sept. 24, 2001; Provide high-resolution, seasonal simulation data for air quality studies; and Provide high-resolution, seasonal simulation data for air quality studies; and Regional climate studies. Regional climate studies.

5. MM5-simulated Hurricane Andrew (1992)

6. MM5-simulated Hurricane Bonnie (1998)

8. 3. Real-time forecasts at UMD (http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~mm5/)

9. Topography with 12-km resolution

10. Topography with 4-km resolution

11. 4. Regional climate studies – GEWEX/GCIP

12. The area-averaged daily rainfall between the observed and the simulated during 1 – 30 June 1998

13. The area-averaged daily max./min. Tsfc between the observed and the simulated during 1-30 June 1998

14. 30-day accumulated rainfall between the observed (4 km) and the simulated (5-km)

15. Diurnal variation of (a) the observed and (b) the simulated (30-day accumulated) precipitation using the Blackadar PBL scheme

16. Diurnal variation of (a) the observed and (b) the simulated (30-day accumulated) precipitation using the MRF PBL scheme

17. Diurnal variations of the area-averaged surface winds simulated by five PBL schemes

18. 5. Discussion topics - Vegetation map

19. Soil-type map

20. Regional climate issues: What are the regional climate characteristics (e.g., rainfall, Tsfc, storm freq., LLJs, freezing rain, weather extremes) during the past 20, 50 and 100 years? How are they related to global climate change or regional climate elsewhere? What are the regional climate characteristics (e.g., rainfall, Tsfc, storm freq., LLJs, freezing rain, weather extremes) during the past 20, 50 and 100 years? How are they related to global climate change or regional climate elsewhere? How will the global climate change affect the future climate of the State? How to asses the threats of extreme weather and climate? How will the global climate change affect the future climate of the State? How to asses the threats of extreme weather and climate? To what extent will the urban heat island effects of the Washington-Baltimore metropolitan affect the regional climate change? What are the consequences of continued regional urbanizations? To what extent will the urban heat island effects of the Washington-Baltimore metropolitan affect the regional climate change? What are the consequences of continued regional urbanizations?

21. How are the regional climate (LLJs, winter storms) and precipitation determined by different scales of topography? What are the effects of the Chesapeake Bay? How are the regional climate (LLJs, winter storms) and precipitation determined by different scales of topography? What are the effects of the Chesapeake Bay? What are the mean-diurnal to monthly and seasonal characteristics of the boundary layer flows over different parts of the State? What are the mean-diurnal to monthly and seasonal characteristics of the boundary layer flows over different parts of the State? What are the “climate forecast error” structures of winds, temperature and precipitation at various temporal and spatial scales from the national medium to long range ensemble forecasts? What are the “climate forecast error” structures of winds, temperature and precipitation at various temporal and spatial scales from the national medium to long range ensemble forecasts?

22. References Liu, Y., D.-L. Zhang and M.K. Yau, 1997: A multiscale numerical study of Hurricane Andrew (1992). Part I: Explicit simulation and verification. Monthly Weather Review, 125, 3073-3093. Jin, M. and D.-L. Zhang, 2002: Observed variations of leaf area index and its relationship with surface temperatures during warm seasons. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 80, 117-129. Jin, M. and D.-L. Zhang, 2002: Observed variations of leaf area index and its relationship with surface temperatures during warm seasons. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 80, 117-129. Zhang, D.-L., W.-Z. Zheng and Y.-K. Xue, 2003: A numerical study of regional climate over the LSA-East. Part I: Model implementation and verification. Monthly Weather Review, 131, 1895-1909. Zhang, D.-L., W.-Z. Zheng and Y.-K. Xue, 2003: A numerical study of regional climate over the LSA-East. Part I: Model implementation and verification. Monthly Weather Review, 131, 1895-1909. Zhu, T., D.-L. Zhang and F. Weng, 2003: Numerical simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998). Part I: Eyewall evolution and intensity changes. Monthly Weather Review, in press. Zhu, T., D.-L. Zhang and F. Weng, 2003: Numerical simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998). Part I: Eyewall evolution and intensity changes. Monthly Weather Review, in press. Zhang, D.-L. and W.-Z. Zheng, 2003: Diurnal cycles of surface winds and temperatures as simulated by five boundary-layer parameterizations. Journal of Applied Meteorology, in press. Zhang, D.-L. and W.-Z. Zheng, 2003: Diurnal cycles of surface winds and temperatures as simulated by five boundary-layer parameterizations. Journal of Applied Meteorology, in press.