Presentation on theme: "RECENT ECONOMIC AND RESIDENTIAL MARKET TRENDS AND FORECAST PORTLAND METROPOLITAN AREA TICOR TITLE January 2010 Jerry Johnson Principal Johnson Reid, LLC."— Presentation transcript:
RECENT ECONOMIC AND RESIDENTIAL MARKET TRENDS AND FORECAST PORTLAND METROPOLITAN AREA TICOR TITLE January 2010 Jerry Johnson Principal Johnson Reid, LLC
RENTAL VACANCY RATES – NATIONAL AVERAGE SOURCE: Census Bureau
ECONOMIC/DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS SUMMARY CONFIDENCE LOW –High Unemployment –Significant Percentage of Negative Equity BANKS WILL REMAIN ON DEFENSIVE –Residential Bust Followed by Commercial Bust –Foreclosures Likely to Continue LOCAL EMPLOYMENT TRENDS NEGATIVE –Loss of 60,000 Jobs –Employment Back at 2005 Levels PRICING APPEARS TO HAVE FOUND A BOTTOM –Lots of Residential Overhang Remains
MARKET CONCLUSIONS FUNDAMENTALS IMPROVING –Standing Inventory at 6.5 Months –Very Low New Home Inventory THREATS REMAIN ON HORIZON –Pricing Stabilizing, but Foreclosures Coming –Unemployment Too High – Will Peak in 2010 PRICING POWER LIMITED –Shadow Inventory –Limited Confidence CONDO MARKET DEAD UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
MARKET CONCLUSIONS FIRST TIME TAX CREDIT –Less Effective over Time –May be Setting Up FHA for Crash CHANGE IN PRODUCT TYPE –First Time Homebuyer Target –Loss in Equity Will Impact Move-Up Markets METRO – URBAN GROWTH REPORT –Not Even Trying Anymore –Expect No New Residential Land
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