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Modified over 4 years ago
2011 Economic Forecast February 8, 2011 University Plaza Hotel Springfield, Missouri Dr. David Mitchell, Director Bureau of Economic Research
Change in Real GDP Qtr. To Qtr.
US Unemployment Rate
US Unemployment Rate with Discouraged Workers
US Employment (2000s Average Growth Rate in Employment) 12.6 Million Jobs
US Employment (1990s Average Growth Rate in Employment) 7.8 million jobs
US and Missouri Median Home Prices Constant Dollars 2010:Q2 Peak 2006:Q4
Housing Prices in Missouri Cities 1995 Q1 = 100
US and Missouri Home Prices (1980:Q1 = 100 ; Constant $1980) 103.3 122.6
Real Residential Value of Construction (Millions of 2010 $ SAAR)
New Single Family Home Permits per 10,000 population
Missouri SFH Permits/10,000 pop
Missouri Personal Income (Constant 2010:Q3 Million $--SAAR)
Missouri Personal Income
Growth in Missouri Personal Income (Year over Year)
Missouri Employment 2000-2010
Missouri Employment Peak of 2,913,975 Dec. 2006 Trough of 2,704,225 Aug.2010 2010 Average 2,711,858
Missouri Employment (Percent Change Year over Year)
US and Missouri Job Losses (December 2007 to June 2009)
Monthly Change in Employment
Change in US and Missouri Employment (Percent relative to Jan 2006 Employment level)
US and Missouri Employment 0.8% 0.2%
US and Missouri Private Employment Mo 0.52% US 1.03% US 1.2% Mo 0.3%
US and Missouri Employment (June 2009 to Present)
Missouri Employment in Recovery Index (Employment in Month 1 of Recovery = 100)
Missouri Private Employment (thds)
Change in Construction Employment (thds)
Change in Government Employment (thds)
Change in Health and Education Employment (thds)
Change in Professional Business Services Employment (thds)
Change in Manufacturing Employment (thds)
Where is Missouri Growing? ( December 2009 to today) Kansas City (-6,082) St. Louis (10,273) MSA Minor (8,541) Rural (-7,874)
Springfield MSA Employment
Employment Throughout Missouri AreaEmployment Percent of Missouri Employment St. Louis 980,40536.1% Kansas City 553,82420.4% Minor MSAs 497,14418.4% Rural 677,84225.1% Total 2,709,215
Missouri Employment Breakdown (thds) IndustryDec 2006Nov 2010ChangeRelative Size Nonfarm (CES) 2,788.8 2,653.50-135.3--- Private 2,352.7 2,195.00-157.782.7% Construction147.6 103.6-44.03.9% Financial165.6 156.7-8.95.9% Government436.1 458.822.717.3% Health381.2 408.427.215.4% Information63.1 61.8-1.32.3% Leisure280.8 277.6-3.210.5% Manufacturing304.8 246.5-58.39.3% Mining5.2 4.1-1.10.2% Prof Biz Services338.8 308.6-30.211.6% Retail316.2 297.8-18.411.2% Trans/Utilities106.5 94.7-11.83.6% Wholesale124.2 115.4-8.84.3% Other Services120.5 119.54.5%
Missouri Unemployment Rate
Major City Unemployment Rates
Change in Taxable Sales 2009 to 2010
Change in Taxable Sales 2007 to 2010
2011 Missouri Forecast Industry10-Nov2011ChangePercent Nonfarm (CES)2,653.502,668.5015.00.57% Private2,195.002,215.0020.00.91% Construction103.61040.40.39% Financial156.7153.7-3.0-1.91% Government458.8453.5-5.3-1.16% Health408.4412.84.41.08% Information61.861-0.8-1.29% Leisure277.6283.66.02.16% Manufacturing246.5248.52.00.81% Mining220.127.116.112.20% Prof Biz Services308.63145.41.75% Retail297.8301.43.61.21% Trans/Utilities94.718.104.22.168% Wholesale115.41160.60.52% Other Services119.51211.51.26% Spfd Employment199.822.214.171.124% Mo Unemployment Rate (SA)9.90%8.50% Spfd Unemployment Rate (SA)8.70%7.90% Real Personal Income219,620222,6943,0741.40%
By Albert Williams, Ph.D., Associate Professor of Finance and Economics Huizenga School of Business by Albert Williams, Ph.D., Associate Professor of Finance.
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