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Near-Real Time Analysis of the Modern Carbon Cycle by Model-Data Fusion Scott Denning, David Baker, Chris O’Dell, Denis O’Brien, Tomohiro Oda, Nick Parazoo,

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Presentation on theme: "Near-Real Time Analysis of the Modern Carbon Cycle by Model-Data Fusion Scott Denning, David Baker, Chris O’Dell, Denis O’Brien, Tomohiro Oda, Nick Parazoo,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Near-Real Time Analysis of the Modern Carbon Cycle by Model-Data Fusion Scott Denning, David Baker, Chris O’Dell, Denis O’Brien, Tomohiro Oda, Nick Parazoo, Ian Baker, Becky McKeown (CSU Atmospheric Science & CIRA) Andy Jacobson, Pieter Tans (NOAA ESRL), Scott Doney, Ivan Lima (WHOI), Jim Collatz, Randy Kawa (NASA GSFC) Acknowledgements: Support by NASA, NOAA, DoE

2 Overall Design

3 Component Models Fossil Fuel Emissions (EDGAR plus DMSP, monthly) Ocean Biogeochemistry, Ecosystems, & Air-Sea Gas Exchange (WHOI, daily) Terrestrial photosynthesis & respiration (SiB4, hourly) Biomass burning (GFED, 8-day) Atmospheric Transport (GEOS5-PCTM, 3-hourly) CarbonTracker: CASA+GFED+Ocean+TM5+in-situ

4 Regional Emissions Estimates Oda et al (2010) emissions scaled to DMSP lights

5

6 Global Fire Emissions Database Based on satellite fire counts, burned area, combustion models Annual carbon emissions (as g C m -2 year -1 ), averaged over 1997-2009.

7

8 Atmospheric Transport Model Parameterized Chemical Transport Model (PCTM) developed at NASA GSFC –Identical algorithms & code from GEOS-5 –Driven by stored winds, turbulence, cloud mass fluxes from model reanalysis –0.5° x 0.67° lat x lon, 55 levels

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10 Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Filter Prior b =0.0; s b land =0.2; s b ocean = 0.1 N ens = 200; Assimilation Window = 2 weeks Covariance Propagation using persistence Covariance smoothing for “cold start” only Similar to a grid-scale CarbonTracker, but with mechanistic detail

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