1. Strategic Policy Directions for Air Quality Management Daniel Krewski, PhD, MHA McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment NERAM Colloquium V October 18, 2006 McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment

2. Science and Policy for Global Air Quality Management Michal Krzyanowski WHO air quality guidelines Health effects at near ambient levels, which often exceed established guidelines Integration of air quality policy with that in other sectors (energy, climate, transport, agriculture, social) Global approach needed McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment

3. The Global Burden of Disease due to Air Pollution Aaron Cohen CRA: Air pollution in context of other population health risk issues GBD: Cardiopulmonary disease and lung cancer due to PM (Pope et al., 2002) Magnitude: AF of 4 - 5%, 1.6 M deaths annually Uncertainties considered Avoidable burden in 2010 and 2020 McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment

4. Impact of Air Pollution on Public Health in Hong Kong Anthony Hedley Benefits of reducing sulfur content of fuel (1% reduction in mortality per 10 µg/m 3 SO 2 ) Visibility used as an AQI Health benefits of air pollution reduction quantified ($246 M direct benefits + $2.2 B indirect benefits) Multi-sectoral mitigation strategies McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment

5. Transportability of Risk Estimates Jonathon Samet How generalizable are risk estimates (e.g., ACS volunteers)? Air pollution is a complex mixture Variability in susceptibility (based on health determinants) McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment

6. Air Quality Measurements for Policy Decisions Jeff Brook Inform public of air quality (AQI) Source apportionment Satellite measurements at global & local level Targeted controls Better accountability by tracking interventions McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment

7. Assessment of Emission Inventories in North America William Pennell Major point sources well characterized Track emissions trends Uncertainties in mobile source emissions, and in other important sources (air toxics) Spatial-temporal resolution inadequate for modeling and forecasting McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment

8. Source-Receptor Relationships Philip Hopke PM speciation networks now in place Receptor models used for source apportionment (with source profiles known or unknown) Source apportionment subject to less uncertainty than health effects assessment McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment

9. Integrated Assessment Modeling Hadi Dowlatabadi Integrated models including: –population –impacts –economic activity –atmosphere & climate change –fossil energy & land cover Value of information: alter policy choices McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment

10. Modeling Exposures to Traffic-Related Air Pollution David Briggs Exposure assessment: GIS, models (LUR, co-Kriging), indicators (road density), monitoring Spatial/temporal resolution Long range vs traffic-related pollution GEMS: European exposure assessment study McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment

11. Mortality Risk Evaluation for Air Quality Policy Alan Krupnick BCA now widely used in environmental decision making WTP preferred for valuation VSL using WTP < $6 M VSL/VSLY – either constant or lower for elderly McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment

12. Policy Case Studies for North America Bart Kroes Up to 3X differences in air quality standards in Canada, US, CA & Mexico NARSTO assessments can promote harmonization Primarily technology driven control programs – effective in achieving emissions reductions Limited emissions trading for S0 2 and NO x McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment

13. Air Quality Management Capabilities of Selected Asian Cities Kong Ha Air quality improving in Asian cities PM10 standards still exceeded Benchmarking: –Air quality index –Monitoring stations –Assessment and availability –Emissions estimates –Management Increasing motorization (stricter vehicle emission standards) McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment

14. Policy Case Studies from Europe Martin Williams EU Thematic Strategy will use a range of (integrated, multi- sectoral) mitigation measures, with benefits expected to exceed costs UK action plan now undergoing consultation McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment

15. U.S. - Canada Air Quality Agreement Brian McLean & Jane Barton Originally motivated by transboundary acid rain issues: –Emissions limits –Reduction timetables –Compliance monitoring –Research collaboration Ozone Annex established in 2000 Acidic deposition reductions expected to lead to $122 B annually by 2010 Scientific activities key to providing evidence on which air quality management is based Successful U.S. experience with cap and trade – cap key to success McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment

16. Air Quality and Climate Change Quentin Chiotti Co-benefits related to emissions from energy, transportation, agriculture, and other sectors Focus on: –Chemical/atmospheric interactions –Actions to directly reduce GHGs and other air pollutants –Actions that indirectly reduce energy use –Adaptive responses to climate change McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment

17. Emerging Issues and Opportunities Jonathon Samet Health effects of PM, ozone well-established; additional evidence of traffic related pollution Distinguish risk management needs in developing and developed countries Use comprehensive accountability framework Public engagement McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment

18. Evaluation of Interventions: Accountability Annemoon van Erp Accountability chain:  Regulatory action  Emissions  Ambient air quality  Exposure/dose  Human health Case studies of:  Traffic reduction  Replacement of wood stoves  Coal ban in Irish cities  Switch from brown coal to natural gas and diesel in eastern Germany  Regulated decreases in SO 2 from eastern US power plants) McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment

19. Environmental Justice Marie O’Neal Ethical component to EJ “Right” to clean environment embedded in some legislation Health is socially patterned (fundamental to field of population health) Individual and contextual effects SES an important effect modifier in air pollution- health associations McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment

20. Behaviour on Smoggy Days in Montreal Tom Kosatsky How do people cope with hot smoggy weather, based on EC heat and smog warnings? Increased symptoms in susceptible people with COPD and CHF on smoggy days Perception of smog based on symptoms or visible hazy air, rather than EC smog warnings Protective behaviours (reduced physical activity, stay indoors) adopted on smoggy days McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment

21. Panel Perspectives Tony Clarke-Sturman, Hugh Kellas, Quentin Chiotti & Kong Ha Greater Vancouver AQ goals: (1) minimize public health risk, (2) improve visibility, and (3) minimize global climate change (Hugh Kellas) Opportunities to reduce marine emissions, with involvement of IMO (Tony Clarke-Sturman) Limits in sulfur content of industrial fuel resulted in immediate marked improvements in Hong Kong air quality (Kong Ha) Lessons learned from Alberta oil sands (GHG emissions) and coal fired power plants in Ontario (action to reduce emissions?) (Quentin Chiotti) McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment

22. Reflections on Air Quality and Health Ray Copes Moved away from tiered standards, to science based reference level with AQ management target New sources (marine vessels) being addressed Traffic has become a focus of concern Use of environmental monitoring, health surveillance, and burden of illness approaches to population health risk assessment Do we know what works? (accountability) McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment

23. Future Directions Martin Williams Role of standards? Scenarios>emissions> exposures>health effects> BCA>targets>controls AQGs increasingly difficult to achieve Hemispheric transport (LRTAP Convention) Integrated climate, air pollution, and energy policies → cost savings (IASA Global IAM) McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment

24. Questions Leading to Draft Conference Statement 1.What scientific knowledge can be translated into air quality policy? 2.What research is needed to guide air quality management? 3.How should air quality be addressed internationally? 4.How should air quality and climate change be linked? 5.What should be done beyond the NERAM process? McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment

25. Draft Conference Statement Question 1: What is known? There is sufficient scientific evidence to take action to improve air quality. There remain additional areas, such as traffic, where additional evidence will strengthen the science base for air quality management. Tools for source apportionment and speciation should be exploited further. Air quality management has local, regional, national, international, and global dimensions. Social marketing will be needed to mobilize action. McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment

26. Draft Conference Statement Question 2: What research is needed? Understand link between increased oxidative capacity and climate change, particulate air pollution, and health effects. Characterize toxicity of complex mixtures of pollutants. Hazardous air pollutions, including POPs and metals, need to be addressed. Characterize environmental impacts of air pollution. Provide tools to assess benefits and costs to local decision makers. Describe effects of air quality management interventions (accountability). Environmental monitoring and health surveillance programs need to be preserved and strengthened to support accountability. McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment

27. Draft Conference Statement Question 3: What should be done internationally? Harmonization of air quality measurement methods is needed for comparability of results. Harmonization of health effects assessments will eliminate duplication of assessment effort, and provide results to countries without the resources to conduct such assessments. Harmonization of standards is desirable it principle, it could have disbenefits by not addressing local air quality issues adequately. Air quality management approaches should support sustainable development. McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment

28. Draft Conference Statement Question 4: Air quality and climate policy links? Link between air quality and climate change needs to be more clearly articulated. Asses implications of carbon sequestration on air quality. A more holistic systems approach across sectors, stakeholders, and issues (such as air quality, climate change, noise, visibility) is needed. Urban planning tools offer considerable potential in addressing air quality and climate change. Individual behaviour change will be an important component of any overall strategy to address air quality and climate change. McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment

29. Draft Conference Statement Question 5: What should be done after NERAM? Promotion of NERAM Air Quality Guidance Document. Further scientific research, emphasizing data gaps such as traffic. Development of integrated assessments across sectors. Development of cross-sectoral risk management strategies. Demonstration of accountability. Enhanced communication with all stakeholders. Mobilization of action. Evaluation of NERAM process, and its impact. McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment

30. Key Elements of Draft Conference Statement 1.Current scientific evidence on adverse health impacts is sufficient to support air quality management action. 2.Air quality management actions have been shown to be cost-beneficial in a number of circumstances. 3.Although additional scientific evidence will be useful in targeted areas, such as traffic, air quality management actions are needed now. 4.Require local, regional, national, international, and global actions. 5.Harmonization of air quality measurement methods and health assessments desirable. 6.Different air quality management strategies may be needed for developed and developing countries. 7.Air quality and climate change are closely linked. 8.Cross-sectoral strategies (air, climate, transportation, energy, agriculture) based on integrated assessments are needed. 9.Air quality management strategies should support sustainable development. 10.Interventions need to be evaluated (accountability). McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment

31. Key Elements of Draft Conference Statement McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment

32. Next Steps Post-colloquium comments on guidance document (November 15, 2006) Submission of papers presented at the conference (November 30, 2006) Review of manuscripts and Guidance Document (March, 2006) Submission of manuscripts and Guidance Document for publication in the Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health (April, 2006) McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment

33. Concluding Business

34. Post-Colloquium Quiz for Participants…

35. Can You Identify the Following Exposure Assessment Model ? NERAM V LUR-Co-Kriging-Penalized Spline Smoothed Air Quality Model of the Lower BC Mainland

36. NERAM V LUR-Co-Kriging-Penalized Spline Smoothed Air Quality Model of the Lower BC Mainland

37. Some well deserved Thank You’s!

38. Dr. David Bates: A Pioneer in Air Pollution Risk Assessment

39. Dr. John Shortreed: Co-founder with Dr. Robert Willes of the NERAM Colloquium Series

40. Lorraine Craig: for her Guidance on Air Quality Management

41. Our Organizers: Addy Mitchell and Suzanne Therien

42. Dr. Sam Kacew, Editor-in-Chief Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health

43. The Planning Committee and our Sponsors

44. And all of the NERAM V participants!