1. Iraq: Who’s Who? 3 main groups: 1. Sunni Muslim—17%, center-west & north (Arab & Saddam’s group), 2. Shia Muslim- 60% center-south (Arab, Repressed by Saddam), 3. Kurd – 17% Far North (non-Arab, Repressed by Saddam) & 2 Others (2-3% of pop.): Turkmen [conflict with Kurds] & Christian Iraq govt.-- Shia-led & Kurd support, Sunni ambivalent / hostile– Security Forces & Milt. – Shia & Kurd dominated, some Sunni. Getting stronger. Private Militas: -2 rival Shia (ISCI-Badr VS. Sadr) Kurdish Pesh Merga, Sunni “Sons of Iraq” (ex-insurgents) Al Qaida – sunni, very small, mainly foreign, weak Iraq Conflcits…. Violence down 77% in 2008, but hundreds of thousands dead & 2.5 MN displcd Sunni-Shia Conflict (esp. 2005-2007), ethnic Cleansing Baghdad Intra-Shia Conflict (Sadr vs. ISCI/Badr) Shiite Federation in South (oil) ? ISCI wants to form, Sadr no Kurd-Turk conflict Kurdish Autonomous Zone in North (oil),

2. Multiple, Complex Conflicts (Sunni-US, Sunni-Sunni, Shiite—Sunni, Shiite-Shiite, some Shiite-US, Kurd-Turk, Iran –Sunni, Iran—US, etc.) [Very, very difficult to manage for US govt. & milt. troops] –Pre-’07-- Insurgency (Sunni nationalist) & Al Qaeda in Iraq (Foreign & local relig. extremists – Sunni) VS. US, Shiites, Kurds, & Iraqi govt. –2007-08 –Intra-Sunni fight -- Sunni insurgency VS. Al Qaeda in Iraq (& vs. Shiites)– US supports Sunni Awakening Council Militias & $ millions. – 2008-- Intra-Shiite Conflict – ISCI (Badr) & Dawa Vs. Sadr (Mahdi Army) -- 2004 & 2008 – Mahdi Army (Sadr) vs. US -- 2004-2006 --Mahdi Army vs. Sunnis (Bahgdad), 2007--08 Truce -- Kurds Vs. Turkmen & Arabs (& Turkey?) in north (Kirkuk) -- Role of Iran -- link to Shiite Govt. & Shiite Militas, Vs. US & Vs. Sunni in Iraq [Hedging its bets – various Shiites] -- Other Countries in region (Sunni) –no relations Iraqi govt., Suppt. Sunni -- US Presence indefinite? Troop Surge since Jan. 2007 (decrease violence), 4 super bases, Lgst. embassy in world, & Iran conflict? (Shiite reaction) “The big battle for Iraq has not yet been fought” (Civil war), OR Negotiations

3. Surge Success & Withdrawal Agreement ALL US forces out by 2011 Restrictions on US forces starting 2009