1. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 1 Analysis of Federal Mitigation Policy in the U.S.: Mitigation Plans, Expenditures, Civic Engagement, and Local Capacity Philip Berke, PhD Professor, UNC-CH Department of City & Regional Planning Deputy Director, Institute for the Environment Gavin Smith, PhD Assoc. Research Professor, UNC-CH Department of City & Regional Planning Executive Director, DHS Coastal Hazards Center of Excellence Ward Lyles, PhD Post-doc Research Associate UNC-CH Institute for the Environment Dylan Sandler, MRP Research Associate, DHS Coastal Hazards Center of Excellence DHS Annual Meeting 1/31 – 2/1, 2013

2. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 2 Project Overview To develop and test a meta-theoretical plan quality (PQ) framework for analyzing hazard mitigation planning under the 2000 Federal Disaster Mitigation Act (DMA). The PQ framework contains building blocks of measurable indicators that can be used by researchers and practitioners to understand the effects of planning on vulnerability reduction actions across diverse settings..

3. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 3 Project Overview Application of the Plan Quality framework: PQ assessment tool documents patterns in plans, identifies specific weak points that could undermine the effectiveness of individual plans. Can be used by FEMA and states to monitor change in local plan quality and policy, and provides an empirical basis for making targeted improvements in planning. PQ framework is being applied to multiple planning domains in hazard management (e.g. NFIP’s CRS, disaster recovery, and climate adaptation) and diverse settings US: 6 states and 175 local governments Canada, Malaysia, New Zealand

4. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 4 Project Relevance  Evaluated a major federal policy First national evaluation of the performance of state and local hazard mitigation planning under the 2000 Disaster Mitigation Act.  Filled a major gap in knowledge Major need to develop better theories and measurements to assess that quality of “local” plans and their impacts on hazard vulnerability (NRC 2006, NAS 2012). DHS funded study applies the meta-PQ framework developed at UNC-CH.  Trained the next generation 13 masters students 1 doctoral student 1 doctoral student intern - Jackson State University

5. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 5 Technical Approach Sample Strategy 30 coastal states 175 local gov’ts in 6 states Content analysis of state & local hazard mitigation plans Plan assessment tool Atlas.ti 6.0 qualitative analysis software Inter-coder reliability Survey and interviews State officials to assess local capacity building Local officials to assess plan implementation Statistics Analyses Descriptive statistics, means testing (t-test, ANOVA), multivariate modeling Case studies of local hazard mitigation planning Social network analysis

6. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 6 Progress to Date - Year 5  Months 1-6:  completed survey on local plan implementation  integrated data sets to analyze implementation, and factors driving implementation success  completed 4 case studies of local hazard mitigation planning  Months 6-12:  complete development of an interactive website in collaboration with FEMA  continue development of a hazards management certificate program

7. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 7 Translational Activities  Website: FEMA Building on Local Mitigation Planning Handbook Best practices derived from research  Policy advice: FEMA update for mitigation plan guidance update for CRS-credited floodplain manage- ment plans  Graduate course on hazard management  Research summaries for policy makers

8. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 8 www.mitigationguide.org Interactive Website TASK 5: Conduct a Risk Assessment

9. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 9

10. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 10 Products - Year 5 Months 1-6: 1 peer reviewed paper published 2 peer reviewed papers accepted for publication 3 papers submitted for peer review 2 dissertation awards 6 research summaries (2-4 pgs.) for policy makers Syllabus for graduate course: Hazard management and climate change Months 6-12: Interactive website (plan assessment tool and users guide) 1 paper to be submitted for peer review

11. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 11 Products - Year 5 Publications: Berke, Philip, Gavin Smith and Ward Lyles. 2012. Planning for Resiliency: An Evaluation of State Hazard Mitigation Plans under the Disaster Mitigation Act. Natural Hazards Review 13(2): 139-149 Berke, Philip and Ward Lyles. "Public Risks and the Challenges to Climate Adaptation: A Proposed Framework for Planning in the Age of Uncertainty," Cityscape (forthcoming). Smith, Gavin, Ward Lyles, Philip Berke. The Role of the State in Building Local Capacity and Commitment for Hazard Mitigation Planning. International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters. (forthcoming) Lyles, W., P. Berke, and G. Smith. “State Influences on Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Quality in Four Southeastern States,” Landscape and Urban Planning (under review) Lyles, W., P. Berke, and G. Smith. “Do Planners Matter? Examining Factors Driving Incorporation of Land Use Approaches into Hazard Mitigation Plans,” Journal of Environmental Planning and Management (under review) Berke, Philip, Ward Lyles, and Gavin Smith. Impacts of Federal and State Hazard Mitigation Policies on Local Land Use Policy, Journal of Planning Education and Research (under review) Two Dissertation Awards: Lyles, W. “Who Plans for Mitigation? Examining the Influence of Hazard Mitigation Stakeholder Networks Using Social Network Analysis” Poster Award at Association of Collegiate Schools of Planning Conference. Cincinnati, Ohio, November 2012. Lyles, W. Graduate Education Advancement Board Impact Award; recognizes outstanding graduate student research of particular benefit to North Carolina, 2013.

12. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 12 Looking Forward: Demonstration Community  Create a community disaster resiliency scorecard (measurable indicators)  Assess adaptive capacity plan quality (stand-alone mitigation plan and/or comprehensive plan) implementation (regulations, incentives, investments)  Assess community hazard vulnerability (NC iRISK) Physical vulnerability Social vulnerability

13. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 13 Score for Local Mitigation Plan Policies (n =175) All scores standardized to 0-10 scale; data generated from content analysis of local hazard mitigation plans for 175 jurisdictions in six states

14. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 14 Implications of Weak Land Use Policy: Smart Growth in Dumb Locations “A wave of Smart Growth is engulfing the Texas coast…” www.texasgulfcoastonline.com/, Jan. 2012 www.texasgulfcoastonline.com/ Seaside, Florida

15. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 15 Network Characteristics Planners in peripheral positions; county emergency managers in central positions Weak ties between planners and emergency managers due to high turnover in leadership positions in recent years Almost all connections centered on emergency manager (i.e. opinion leader structure) 15 C C C C Onslow County New Hanover County PlanningOther Expertise (e.g. Public Works, Administration, Natural Resources ) Emergency Management Planners in Stakeholder Networks

16. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 16 State Plan Quality Scores States are a powerful driver in determining the strength of local mitigation planning Significant variability in scores across states Plan quality principles were moderate to low. Some states prepared strong plans for some plan quality principles, but scored below average for other principles, which could jeopardize successful implementation. Scores for Plan Quality Principles

17. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 17 Questions?

18. Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 18 Products - Year 5 Publications: Berke, Philip and Ward Lyles. "Public Risks and the Challenges to Climate Adaptation: A Proposed Framework for Planning in the Age of Uncertainty," Cityscape (forthcoming). Smith, Gavin, Ward Lyles, Philip Berke. The Role of the State in Building Local Capacity and Commitment for Hazard Mitigation Planning. International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters. (forthcoming) Lyles, W., P. Berke, and G. Smith. “State Influences on Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Quality in Four Southeastern States,” Landscape and Urban Planning (under review) Lyles, W., P. Berke, and G. Smith. “Do Planners Matter? Examining Factors Driving Incorporation of Land Use Approaches into Hazard Mitigation Plans,” Journal of Environmental Planning and Management (under review) Berke, Philip, Ward Lyles, and Gavin Smith. Impacts of Federal and State Hazard Mitigation Policies on Local Land Use Policy, Journal of Planning Education and Research (under review) Two Dissertation Awards: Lyles, W. “Who Plans for Mitigation? Examining the Influence of Hazard Mitigation Stakeholder Networks Using Social Network Analysis” Poster Award at Association of Collegiate Schools of Planning Conference. Cincinnati, Ohio, November 2012. Lyles, W. Graduate Education Advancement Board Impact Award; recognizes outstanding graduate student research of particular benefit to North Carolina, 2013.