Presentation on theme: "Stern review comments 1. UNFCCC goal – stabilisation of GHG concentration preventing dangerous impact to the climate system. The exact level is stil being."— Presentation transcript:
Stern review comments 1. UNFCCC goal – stabilisation of GHG concentration preventing dangerous impact to the climate system. The exact level is stil being investigated (SBSTA, IPCC). 2. EU’s approach - 2°C as compared with pre-industrial level. 3. 450-500 ppm level means 15-30% reduction by 2020 and 75-90% by 2050. 4. Developing countries should change development pattern avoiding BAU scenario a.s.a.p. 5. Late measures is more costly as compared with current ones. 6. Global GHG reduction at 1-2% rate makes sure stabilisation of CO 2 at 450 ppm level. Post 2015 measures would require reduction at 3- 4% annual rate.
Principles of future commitments UNFCCC basic principle - common but differentiated resposibility Elements of future commitments Fixed or dynamic targets Compliance regime Scale of coverage (sectors) Target - to reduce GHG emission growth rate Criteria: goals should be economically reasonable, energy efficient, environmentally sound, acceptable for Parties.
Commitment types options for Anex I Parties Possible types of commitments for Anex I Parties Absolute target with strict cimpliance commitment Dynamic (based on per capita emission) Absolute with cost limit Sectoral approach Technological cooperation
Commitment types options for Non-Anex I Parties Possible options for Non-Anex I Parties Absolute quantitative target Dynamic (emission/GDP) Absolute with cost limit Sectoral approach «No loose» target «Expanded» CDM Dual targets
Scenario 1.Different groups of countries with various commitments is expected scenario. 2.EU announce its interest in continuation of Kyoto regime. USA is likely to remain current position arguing the developing countries have no strict commitments. 3.For Russia absolute target with 2012 (instead of 1990) base year scenario seems to be almost unacceptable (if economic policy remains the same). «Soft» commitments are possible but bring no benefits in terms of carbon trading. 4.Possible options: keep 1990 as a base year with absolute targets or dynamic target - for example 2% annual reduction of per capita energy consumption.