1. Chapter 8 Making Judgments and Decisions P189 Intuitive Predictions Judgment Aids Utility Analysis chapter 8 Makeing Judgments and Decisions 1

2. JUDGMENTS OF VALIDITY Evaluating a Measure – Without statistical validation – judge job relatedness based on sequential questions: Is trait related to performance (link KSA -> task)? is the construct a valid measure of the KSA? Give an example – 12 questions to ask (p190) – Be prepared to answer the questions for a measure you may use chapter 8 Makeing Judgments and Decisions 2

3. MANAGERIAL USE OF ASSESSMENTS What do managers want? – Fill vacancy asap – Want the best people – Want it cheap What do managers know about testing? – Little; no training in psychometrics or test theory – Nothing about construct validity – Misinformed on test validity – Often distrust testing – Some overestimate the validity of tests (especially when over-sold by test vendors (e.g. DISC, MBTI)DISC chapter 8 Makeing Judgments and Decisions 3

4. JUDGMENTS AS PREDICTIONS AND DECISIONS What is “common sense”, “intuition?” – Give some examples. – A thought question - Statistical v. judgmental Prediction – What are the pitfalls with each? – Which is generally superior? (Meehl, ‘54) Prediction and Decision Without Statistics – Usually the most important jobs have few people Why is this a problem for using statistics? How do you deal with this? Combining Information for Overall Assessment Average assessments/use common scale chapter 8 Makeing Judgments and Decisions 4

5. JUDGMENT AIDS Clarifying Judgments to Be Made – JA is essential! –it makes management focus on what it will take to do the job Procedural Planning – Make a detailed protocol and document it Why is this a good thing to do? Developing Assessment Scales – Use the same scale or different scales? – A structured interview? Expectancy Charts – What is a theoretical expectancy chart? – How is it used? – Give an example Expectancy Graphs – Use selection ratio and possible cut scores – to illustrate selection costs to show validity impact (for managers to understand) Utility Analysis – Brogden (‘49), Cronbach & Gleser (‘57) – Show relative pay off (average dollar pay off) – Caveat (GIGO) Concluding Comments – Judgments must be rational and include all infromation available chapter 8 Makeing Judgments and Decisions 5