1. Did NATO Win the Media War? & Does this matter for C2 research? Pascale Combelles Siegel Independent Consultant CCRP symposium, Monterey, 27 June 2000

2. The Dilemma  “No matter how brilliantly you fight, what matters is the actual packaging”  Why repeat the same mistakes?  Why haven’t we fully integrated PA into C2 research?

3. For Democracies in wartime, the media are

4. An Essential Battlefield  Popular support is key Democracy rules by popular consent Erosion of support may end mission  Potential vulnerability Asymmetrical warfare Easy and cheap to manipulate

5. A Difficult Battlefield  Who are “the media”? Neither partner nor opponent Multiplying types — not unitary  Some fundamental media rules The cycle of news The cycle of punditry The speed of media reporting

6. An Understudied Battlefield  Large literature on “military-media relations” (Hotel Warrior, etc…)  Little on the critical importance of media reporting for the conduct of operations  What is there on the role of Public Affairs in operational C2?

7. NATO Public Affairs and The Kosovo Campaign A brief overview

8. NATO Public Affairs  Jamie Shae, the “anti Winston Churchill” “Total engagement,” Limited transparency  Isolated Victim of erroneous assumptions PA dissociated from ops and intel  Some improvement at mid-course

9. Yugoslav Approach...  Undermine NATO’s will to fight Thwart NATO’s rationale Exploit “mistakes” and civilian damage  A multi-media campaign Pictures Speakers Internet

10. The Bottom Line  NATO able to maintain support Majority supported strikes until the end Mass deportations strengthened resolve  Demonization of Milosevic worked  Collateral damage had limited impact on popular support  By end of May: use diplomacy, not bombs

11. However, some reasons for concern  Faulty planning process  Lack of operational information Fueled debate and controversy Credibility on the line  National coordination deficient Different policies/viewpoints  Problems adapting to speed of media reporting — reactive

12. Some thoughts for the future  PA/Media issues frequently require command attention — resource eater (time)  Some PA C2 issues from Allied Force Relationship between PA and Operations Centralized v. decentralized PA operations Interoperability Planning process Military v. media reporting speed

13. Fig1. Public Support for Allied Force

14. Fig 2. Responsibility for Refugees  Whose actions are more responsible for the large number of ethnic Albanian refugees now leaving Kosovo: The Serbian government67% The NATO alliance19% Both equally 4% Neither 1% Don’t know 9% “Special Report: Kosovo: The data,” The Gallup Poll Monthly, nº 402, March 1999, p17.

15. Fig 3. Demonization of Milosevic

16. Fig 4. Evaluation of US policy after Chinese Embassy Incident

17. Fig 5. Diplomacy and Bombs  Which of the following approaches to reaching a peace agreement in Yugoslavia would you prefer to see the US take? continue the current military action: 48% stop the military action and focus on diplomacy: 48% Neither (vol.) 3% No opinion: 1%

18. Fig 5. Diplomacy and Bombs (2)  Please say whether you would approve or disapprove if NATO and the US were to temporarily suspend the strikes and attempt to resolve the matter through negotiations and other means? Approve: 82% Disapprove: 15% No opinion: 3%