1. State of the World 2004 Making Better Energy Choices Janet L. Sawin

2. The path we are on is unsustainable, but not inevitable Overview: Trends in global energy consumption Why our current path is not sustainable We can do far better without sacrificing quality of life Forging a different path

3. Energy That Moves Us Transportation: The world’s fastest growing form of energy use, largely due to the rise of the private car

4. Rise of the Private Car - More than 50% of vehicles bought in the U.S. are SUVs or other light trucks Size and Weight - Around the world, we are taking more trips and traveling greater distances Distances Traveled Numbers - 531 million private vehicles around the world - Numbers rising: 11 million more each year

5. Energy Where We Live and Work Building Trends: Energy use in buildings is rising rapidly International Energy Agency predicts that world electricity demand will double between 2000 and 2030, with most rapid growth in people’s homes

6. Household Trends House size - Average new U.S. home grew by 38% from 1975-2000 - Larger homes require more energy to build, heat, cool, and light - Increasing in numbers, types, and sizes - Fastest growing energy consumers after cars Appliances - Number of people living in each home is declining - Thus, more homes are required for a given population Household Size

7. Energy in Everything We Buy Manufacturing: Largest share of global energy use goes to manufacturing our vehicles, buildings, appliances, and even our food and clothes Embodied energy: energy invested in a particular thing during its lifetime, from cradle to grave Much of the energy embodied in an item is that required to produce it

8. Embodied Energy - Worldwide, 21% of fossil fuel use goes to grow, process, package, transport, and cook our food Food - Energy needed to manufacture cars, to build and maintain infrastructure - Petroleum refining devours about 8% of U.S. energy Cars Homes - Can live in a typical U.S. home for 10 years before energy used in it exceeds energy that went into components and construction

9. Where We Have Been… Source: International Energy Agency (IEA) TPES (millions of tons of oil equivalent) Global Energy Use, 1900-2002

10. …and Where We Are Going!? (if current trends continue) actual projected Source: International Energy Agency (IEA) 200019941988198219761900 TPES (millions of tons of oil equivalent) Past and Projected Global Energy Use, 1900-2030

11. 2. Our Unsustainable Path Impacts of energy production and use –Environmental: air, soil, and water pollution, climate change –Social: impacts on human health, costs to communities where fuels are extracted –Economic and security: costs of relying on imported fuel from unstable regions of the world Disparities within and among countries Resource availability

12. Extreme Imbalance Huge disparity in energy consumption between and within industrial and developing nations World’s richest people consume on average 25 times more energy than world’s poorest

13. Annual Per Capita Energy Consumption, Selected Countries Per Capita Consumption of Commercial Energy (tons of oil equivalent) 8.1 4.1 2.4 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.3 * China excludes Hong Kong

14. Resource Availability Impossible for everyone in developing world to consume as much as an average American Many analysts predict that, even at current world consumption rates, global oil production will peak before 2020 Ex.: If everyone in China used as much oil as the average American, China alone would need more oil than the entire world produced in 2001

15. 3. Energy Use and Quality of Life What are the objectives of increased energy use? …growing our economy? …achieving a better quality of life! How much energy do we really need?

16. Energy Use and Quality of Life Linkages exist: - Energy helps people meet their basic needs - Desire for better quality of life drives further energy use Can demonstrate this by looking at indices used to measure quality of life: –Human Development Index (United Nations) –Well-being Index (Robert Prescott-Allen) But, no fixed relationship exists between energy use and perceived quality of life

17. For the world’s very poorest people, who use little energy, even a very small increase in energy consumption has significant impacts on value of Human Development Index (HDI) Above a certain level, even very large increases in energy use have NO impact Energy Use and Quality of Life

18. Per Capita Energy Use and Human Development Index (HDI) Per Capita Energy Consumption (KOE/H) 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1.0 0 10002000300040005000600070008000900010 000 Value of HDI Estimated HDI or Calculated Actual HDI Note: Data for 100 developed and developing countries. Source: Suarez (1995)

19. Energy Use and Quality of Life Finland Austria Japan United States Kuwait United Arab Emirates Sweden 1 5 173 10 26 Norway 3 2 8 6 Russian Federation 24 27 65 119 19 4 17 3 2 Well-being Rank* Per Capita Energy Use Rank** Nation * Out of 180 countries. ** Based on total primary energy supply. 0 100 Share of Sweden’s Per Capita Energy Use (%) 100 112 104 61 70 140 71 162 190 100 190 Sweden 1 10 United Arab Emirates 173 2

20. Energy Use and Quality of Life Finland Austria Japan United States Kuwait United Arab Emirates Sweden 1 5 173 10 26 Norway 3 2 8 6 Russian Federation 24 27 65 119 19 4 17 3 2 Well-being Rank* Per Capita Energy Use Rank** Nation * Out of 180 countries. ** Based on total primary energy supply. 0100 Share of Sweden’s Per Capita Energy Use (%) 100 112 104 61 70 140 71 162 190 61 140 Austria 5 26 United States 27 4

21. Energy Use and Quality of Life In fact, the way we produce and use energy degrades our quality of life through environmental, social, economic, and security impacts Example: Rising costs of transportation - Traffic fatalities - Pollution and resulting health problems - Congestion (lost time) - Costs of road transport estimated to start at 5% of GDP for industrial countries, and go even higher in some developing countries

22. 4. Forging a Different Path Waste Less and Conserve Energy - Only 28% of energy consumed worldwide converts to useful energy - Yet efficient technologies that provide same services with less energy already exist - Pursue all options for energy savings - Increase the share of energy that comes from renewable sources, like solar and wind Shift Energy Sources

23. Two Types of Choice for Change Societal –through government policies Family/Individual –within constraints imposed by availability and affordability, we all make choices about what to buy and how to use it

24. Making Better Energy Choices: Government Policies Pricing Policies: Taxes, subsidies, and infrastructure investments help to determine energy prices Example: European governments tax cars and gas more heavily, and invest more in public transit Result: Europeans on average own fewer, smaller, more efficient cars than Americans, and use them less

25. Making Better Energy Choices: Government Policies Pricing Policies: Also affect choices about energy sources Example: Subsidies for fossil fuels and nuclear power remain many magnitudes higher than those for renewable energy and efficiency Result: Deceptively low energy prices that drive over-consumption and discourage the use of clean, sustainable alternatives

26. Making Better Energy Choices: Government Policies Appliance and Building Standards: They drive manufacturers to produce more energy-efficient products Example: California state building codes updated regularly, based on best available technologies Result: California buildings far more efficient than US average

27. Making Better Energy Choices: Government Policies Take-Back Laws: They reduce the amount of energy embodied in products we use Example: Several countries require manufacturers to take back their products at the end of their useful life, for reuse or recycling Result: Companies involved in disassembly and recycling of their goods; improved quality and lifetime of products

28. Making Better Energy Choices: Individual Choices Green Power - More people are opting for renewable energy sources - Shifting reliance from personal cars to public transit, cycling, walking, and car sharing programs Living Car Free - Recycled and efficient materials, natural lighting and cooling, superior insulation, PVs, rooftop gardens Green Buildings

29. Other Ways to Save Energy Replace your 5 most-used light bulbs with compact fluorescent bulbs - If every U.S. household did this, more than 20 large power plants could be shut down Purchase items made from recycled materials - Ex.: Producing aluminum out of recycled material requires 95% less energy than making it from raw material

30. Other Ways to Save Energy Buy the most energy efficient appliances and vehicles available when replacing old ones - In the U.S., look for the “Energy Star” label - Turning off lights and appliances when not in use - Buying fewer items - Installing low-flow showerheads Conserve energy by…

31. Making Better Energy Choices Options and technologies are available to produce and use energy in a more sustainable manner, while maintaining a high quality of life Forging a more sustainable energy path is a matter of our everyday choices and political will to enact the right policies

32. About the Author Janet Sawin is a Senior Researcher at the Worldwatch Institute

33. More information on State of the World 2004 at www.worldwatch.org