1. England’s Changing Social Geology Dr Daniel Vickers RCUK Academic Fellow in Social and Spatial Inequalities Department of Geography University of Sheffield www.sasi.group.shef.ac.uk www.areaclassification.org.uk

2. Introducing Social Geology

4. What’s the big idea? Use area classification techniques to compare the country over time. 1991 to 2001. Smallest census units 91 EDs and 01 OAs. Based on 2001 Geography - 1991 data to be assigned to 2001 OAs. This will hopefully provide a picture of how the country is changing.

5. Digging at the country’s social mosaic 1.Clustering elements (Objects to cluster, also known as “operational taxonomic units”) 2.Clustering variables (Attributes of objects to be used) 3.Variable standardisation 4.Measure of association (Proximity measure) 5.Clustering method 6.Number of clusters 7.Interpretation, testing and replication Milligan (1996)

6. Digging at the country’s social mosaic V01: Age 0-4 V02: Age 5-14 V03: Age 25-44 V04: Age 45-64 V05: Age 65+ V06: Indian, Pakistani & Bangladeshi V07: Black African, Black Caribbean & Black Other V08: Born Outside the UK V09: Unemployed V10: Working part-time V13: Economically inactive looking after family V14: No central heating V16: Rent (private) V17: Rent (public) V18: 2+ Car Households V20: Flats V21: Detached V22: Terraced V23: Lone parent household V24: Single pensioner household V25: Single person (not pensioner) household V26: Population Density

7. Clustering results Variable Cluster 1234567 Age 0-4.17.24.18.31.19.24.26 Age 5-14.13.23.29.22.20.29 Age 25-44.47.41.30.38.34.36.33 Age 45-64.31.34.50.28.43.31.33 Age 65+.15.13.18.10.18.21.18 Indian, Pakistani & Bangladeshi.05.03.01.44.02.06.02 Black African, Black Caribbean & Black Other.07.02.00.14.01.16.02 Born Outside the UK.23.08.06.39.06.21.05 Unemployed.14.12.06.20.08.24.18 Working part-time.18.30.32.22.33.21.30 Economically inactive looking after family.15.18.19.34.16.25.29 No central heating.13.15.04.19.07.08.12 Rent (private).30.13.06.17.06.08.04 Rent (public).14.11.03.18.08.67.52 2+ Car Households.17.25.57.18.38.08.16 Flats.68.10.03.17.08.77.17 Detached.05.06.67.05.21.02.06 Terraced.17.66.06.57.15.12.36 Lone parent household.11.18.08.21.12.23.28 Single pensioner household.16.13.12.10.16.25.19 Single person (not pensioner) household.33.19.09.16.12.28.15 Population Density.17.14.04.21.08.23.10

8. What’s in a name? 1: Urban Melting Pot 2: Mixed Communities 3: Out in the Sticks 4: Asian Influence 5: Middle Class Achievers 6: Down and Out 7: Working Class Endeavour

9. Changing Patterns 1991 Frequency 1991 Percent 2001 Frequency 2001 Percent Change Frequency Change Percent 1: Urban Melting Pot 11,3506.915,3929.3 4,0422.4 2: Mixed Communities 21,94913.225,91015.6 3,9612.4 3: Out in the Sticks 32,91519.935,70421.6 2,7891.7 4: Asian Influence 5,0393.04,9303.0 -1090 5: Middle Class Achievers 50,57830.546,79128.2 -3,787-2.3 6: Down and Out 8,2575.010,8786.6 2,6211.6 7: Working Class Endeavour 35,57721.526,06015.7 -9,517-5.8 Total 165,665100.0165,665100.0 0.0

10. Changing Patterns 1991 1234567 Total 20011: Urban Melting Pot 9,2001,3181954672,2451,11685115,392 2: Mixed Communities 77915,9912374323,445764,95025,910 3: Out in the Sticks 2320626,56168,444845635,704 4: Asian Influence 15351933,6991171293104,930 5: Middle Class Achievers 4822,6285,65810333,044274,84946,791 6: Down and Out 618126292045056,4012,99510,878 7: Working Class Endeavour 951,1612321282,77850021,16626,060 Total11,35021,94932,9155,03950,5788,25735,577165,665

11. Changing Patterns From 1234567Total To 1: Urban Melting Pot 05391723141,7634987564,042 2: Mixed Communities -539031-87817-503,7893,961 3: Out in the Sticks -172-31032,786-212242,789 4: Asian Influence -314873014-75182-109 5: Middle Class Achievers -1,763-8172,786-140-4782,071-3,787 6: Down and Out -49850217547802,4952,621 7: Working Class Endeavour -756-3,789-224-182-2,071-2,4950-9,517 Total -4,042-3,961-2,7891093,787-2,6219,517

12. 1: Urban Melting Pot2: Mixed Communities3: Out in the Sticks4: Asian Influence 5: Middle Class Achievers6: Down and Out7: Working Class Endeavour Sheffield 1991

13. 1: Urban Melting Pot2: Mixed Communities3: Out in the Sticks4: Asian Influence 5: Middle Class Achievers6: Down and Out7: Working Class Endeavour Sheffield 2001

14. 1: Urban Melting Pot2: Mixed Communities3: Out in the Sticks4: Asian Influence 5: Middle Class Achievers6: Down and Out7: Working Class Endeavour London 1991

15. 1: Urban Melting Pot2: Mixed Communities3: Out in the Sticks4: Asian Influence 5: Middle Class Achievers6: Down and Out7: Working Class Endeavour London 2001

16. 1: Urban Melting Pot2: Mixed Communities3: Out in the Sticks4: Asian Influence 5: Middle Class Achievers6: Down and Out7: Working Class Endeavour Tyneside 1991

17. 1: Urban Melting Pot2: Mixed Communities3: Out in the Sticks4: Asian Influence 5: Middle Class Achievers6: Down and Out7: Working Class Endeavour Tyneside 2001

18. From Blue CollarCity LivingCountryside Prospering SuburbsConstrained Typical TraitsMulticultural Blue Collar247,25726,45842,15373,924112,089129,23755,827 City Living32,003229,57243,670105,70026,047104,835121,727 ToCountryside48,65229,027162,944102,89225,60095,17221,795 Prospering Suburbs93,98963,47780,291293,17951,732218,07964,013 Constrained112,72827,32724,84750,829120,94090,38744,079 Typical Traits141,210110,78488,390191,26391,495334,189104,488 Multicultural40,841135,32616,68253,53933,26174,058416,712 716,680621,971458,977871,326461,1641,045,957828,641 From Blue CollarCity LivingCountryside Prospering SuburbsConstrained Typical TraitsMulticultural Blue Collar34.54.39.28.524.312.46.7 City Living4.536.99.512.15.610.014.7 ToCountryside6.84.735.511.85.69.12.6 Prospering Suburbs13.110.217.533.611.220.87.7 Constrained15.74.45.45.826.28.65.3 Typical Traits19.717.819.322.019.832.012.6 Multicultural5.721.83.66.17.27.150.3 100.0 Movements cause change

19. What does all this mean Is the country changing? How much? What is happening? What is causing it? Is this good or bad? Where to from here?

20. Further reading and resources Vickers, D. and Rees, P. (2007). Creating the National Statistics 2001 Output Area Classification, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 170(2).Creating the National Statistics 2001 Output Area Classification, Vickers, D. and Rees, P. (2006), Introducing the National Classification of Census Output Areas, Population Trends, 125.Introducing the National Classification of Census Output Areas Vickers, D. (2006), Multi-level Integrated Classifications Based on the 2001 Census, PhD Thesis, University of Leeds.Multi-level Integrated Classifications Based on the 2001 Census http://www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/people/old/d.vickers/thesis.html Vickers, D. Rees, P. and Birkin, M. (2005), Creating the National Classification of Output Areas, Working Paper, School of Geography, University of Leeds.Creating the National Classification of Output Areas Williams, S and Botterill, A. (2006), Profiling Areas Using the Output Area Classification, Regional Trends 39.Profiling Areas Using the Output Area Classification www.sasi.group.shef.ac.uk www.areaclassification.org.uk Forthcoming report and papers based on these findings. I would like to acknowledge the help and advice of John Stillwell, Phil Rees, Paul Norman, Danny Dorling, the ESRC and RCUK