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A model-based approach for estimating international emigration for local authorities Brian Foley, Office for National Statistics BSPS day meeting London.

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Presentation on theme: "A model-based approach for estimating international emigration for local authorities Brian Foley, Office for National Statistics BSPS day meeting London."— Presentation transcript:

1 A model-based approach for estimating international emigration for local authorities Brian Foley, Office for National Statistics BSPS day meeting London School of Economics 16 th May 2013

2 Presentation format Background information -importance of accurate international migration estimates Issues with estimating emigration from local authorities (LAs) ONS emigration model -overview -updating of the model for the year ending mid emigration estimates Future work

3 Need for accurate international migration estimates at local authority level International migration is a key component of population change Accurate estimation of migration flows necessary for LA mid-year population estimates

4 Definition ONS use the United Nations recommended definition of an international long-term migrant: -a person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year (12 months), so that the country of destination effectively becomes his or her new country of usual residence

5 Estimating international migration at local authority level Migration Statistics Improvement Programme Administrative data to distribute immigration totals from International Passenger Survey (IPS) -National Insurance number -Higher Education Statistics Agency -Flag 4s from the GP Patient Register What about emigration ??

6 Emigration at local authority level – difficult to estimate No administrative or survey data sources exist that provide information on long-term emigration from LAs Small sample size of emigrants in the IPS

7 International Passenger Survey, 2002 to 2011 Source -

8 IPS estimates of emigration at national ( ) and regional level (2011) Source - term-international-migration/2011/1-02-ips-margins-of- error xls

9 Emigration estimates for the different levels of geography IPS direct estimate Distribute using IPS 3 year average Distribute using regression model National Regional Intermediate (NMGo) Local authority

10 Estimating emigration at local authority level ONS employs a Poisson regression model Produces estimates of international emigration at LA level (where IPS data are insufficient) by borrowing strength from other data sources -Census -Survey -Administrative

11 Overview of the emigration model Fitted model based on relationship between number of emigrants leaving an LA (IPS- based) and a number of LA-level socio- economic and demographic variables (covariates) Strengths of model: -availability of data for all LAs -more robust estimates

12 Consideration of covariate data Variety of factors associated with why emigrants would leave an area Data that capture both a person’s desire and ability to emigrate

13 Relationship between international long-term emigration and socio-demographic variables at local authority level in England and Wales, year ending mid-2011

14 Stepwise model IPS estimate of LA emigration (3 year average) Covariate 1 Covariate 2 Covariate i Covariate 3 Covariate 1 Multicollinearity testing Covariates selected by stepwise model in more than one year LA level data Emigration model specification Covariate i Final model LA emigration estimates constrained to sum to the relevant NMGo estimate

15 Fitting the final model Geographic indicators included Model fitted for each year ending mid-2002 to mid-2006 Fixed set of model covariates used -improves quality of time series General patterns can be observed -relationship between covariates and IPS emigration estimates

16 Original emigration model (finalised 2010) LA emigration estimates Number of retired people (-) Number of lone and working parents (-) Number of students in Higher/Further education (+) Number of people of Western Europe country of birth (+) Number of people of Oceania country of birth (+) Number of people of North American country of birth (+) Number of household spaces in terraced housing (+) Number of household spaces in shared housing (+) Number of hostels (+) Number of people of Indian ethnicity (-) Number of internal in-migrants (-) Number of international in-migrants (+) Annual Population Survey 2001 Census Population Statistics Division, ONS

17 Updating the model for the year ending mid-2012 emigration estimates Rationale -availability of 2011 Census data -availability of administrative data -appropriate to re-examine the underlying relationships in the model over a more recent time- period -change in dynamics of international migration to/from UK since the mid-2000s

18 Covariate data sources employed 2011 Census data -country of birth, ethnicity, housing status Administrative data available to ONS -Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) -Migrant Worker Scan Annual Population Survey -economic activity data Home Office -crime statistics

19 Stepwise model IPS estimate of LA emigration (3 year average) Covariate 1 Covariate 2 Covariate i Covariate 3 Covariate 1 Multicollinearity testing Covariates selected by stepwise model in more than one year LA level data Emigration model specification Covariate i Final model LA emigration estimates constrained to sum to the relevant NMGo estimate

20 Updated model for year ending mid-2012 emigration estimates at LA level Number of hostels (+) Number of people of Oceania country of birth (+) Number of people of African country of birth (+) Number of people aged 16+ in employment (-) Number of people of North American country of birth (+) Number of in-migrants of EU8 nationality (+) LA emigration estimates Annual Population Survey 2011 Census Migrant Worker Scan

21 Range from ca. 20 to 8,000 Higher emigration flows associated with London and the larger regional cities < ,000-1,999 2,000-3,999 4,000-6,999 >7,000 Modelled estimates of emigration from local authorities in England and Wales, year ending mid-2011 Modelled emigration estimates

22 Range from ca. 0.2% to 6.0% Modelled emigration estimates less than 2% of the LA population in 340 of the 348 LAs in England and Wales < >2.50 Modelled estimates of emigration as a percentage of local authority population, year ending mid-2011 Emigration as % of LA population

23 Future work Ongoing research into developing an improved modelling approach for producing emigration estimates at LA level -identify additional covariates, other data sources -capture forthcoming changes in international migration patterns to/from UK -reassess how geographic effects are captured and accounted for

24 Thank you for your attention Any questions ?


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