1. The ‘what’, ‘why’, ‘how’ and ‘so what’ of police reform: Scotland in comparative perspective Nick Fyfe Scottish Institute for Policing Research & University of Dundee May 2014

2. Overview The ‘what’ (trajectories), ‘why’ (drivers) and ‘how’ (windows of opportunity and policy entrepreneurs); The ‘so what’: competing narratives and some Scottish evidence; What kind of ‘local policing’ do we want from reform?

3. What I : Diverging trajectories ? police reform within the UK England & WalesScotland Political logic of change Challenging public sector bureaucracies Economic efficiency and ‘state building’ AccountabilityElectoral/ democratic Bureaucratic/ technocratic Distribution of powerTowards localismTowards centralism Police MissionCrime-fightingCommunity well- being Policy influenceUnited StatesNorthern Europe

4. Two contrasting perspectives…. The Government does not support the imposition of structural changes on local forces which will be seen by the public as creating vast and distant conglomerations, weakening their capacity to influence and hold to account those who keep them safe. Scarce resources in challenging times need to be focused on strengthening front line policing, not bank rolling controversial mergers with little public or political support. (Home Office, June 2010 ). We cannot afford to keep doing things eight times over. To do nothing would mean going down the route south of the border where there is no alternative to massive reductions in police numbers (Justice Secretary, September, 2011)

5. What II Converging trajectories? CountryDate of Major ReformsKey changes Belgium1998 Creation of a single integrated police force on 2 levels: the federal level and the supra-local level of 195 inter- policing zones Denmark2007 Merger of 54 police districts to create 12 larger districts Norway2007 Merger of 57 police districts to create 24 districts Finland2009/10 Reduction in the number of police districts from 90 to 24. Scotland2013 Merger of 8 regional police forces to create a single, national police force. Netherlands2013 Merger of 25 regional police forces to create a single, national police force. Sweden2015 Merger of 118 police districts to create 21 and will now replace the 21 police authorities with a single police organisation

6. Why? Different drivers…. Fiscal pressures; Influence of New Public Management (NPM) discourse; Loss of police legitimacy; Crisis and scandal; Policy transfer.

7. How? ‘Windows of Opportunity’: linking ‘problems’, ‘policies’ and ‘politics’; The role of ‘policy entrepreneurs’

8. The ‘So what?’… ‘A fundamental lesson of the sociology of policing is that there is little fit between policy formulated by any governance structure at the top of the organization (even locally) and practice in the streets and cells’ (Reiner, 2013)

9. The Danish experience ‘five hens are easily reduced to one feather’ A more hierarchical and centralized police organization Less time for preventive activities Less police presence at the local level Less police knowledge about local affairs Less professionalization than expected

10. The challenges of evaluating police reform –Multiple and inter-connected objectives and reforms; –Complexity of research design; –A mix of intended and unintended consequences; –The politics of evaluation: competing narratives of ‘success’ and ‘failure’.

11. Contested narratives of evaluation : critical and reassuring voices….

12. Tracking the impacts of reform in Scotland National social attitude survey (2012-2015); Local policing in transition project (2012-2015); Mapping a changing organisational culture (2012-?) Understanding the perceptions of divisional commanders and senior managers (2013); International comparative research with the Netherlands on policy processes and local policing (2013-)

13. How survey participants think policing is currently organised in Scotland (%) Source: 2012 and 2013 Scottish Social Attitudes surveys

14. Level of knowledge about the single force (%) Source: 2012 and 2013 Scottish Social Attitudes surveys

15. Pubic confidence in local policing (pre-reform) SCJS 2012/13

16. Source: 2012 and 2013 Scottish Social Attitudes surveys Whether having a single national police force for Scotland makes people more or less confident about local policing

17. Source: 2012 and 2013 Scottish Social Attitudes surveys Public confidence in local policing and engagement

18. A final question… What kind of ‘local policing’ do we want from police reform?

19. The contours of a ‘progressive localism’ ‘Models’/’blueprints’ are replaced by ‘ingredients’, ‘menus’ and ‘frameworks’; Selection according to local circumstances not central targets; Permits local experimentation, innovation and creativity.

20. Elements of ‘progressive policing’ Aligned with the principles of ‘democratic policing’ and ‘procedural justice’: equitable, responsive, fair, participatory; Brings evidence of ‘what works’ into public debates about policing; Involves listening to local communities and tracking harm – focus on ‘what matters’

21. ‘Progressive policing’: from reassurance to co-production