1. Nationalism & Unionism in Ireland Do Economic Forces Matter? 1

2. Nationalist Ideology: some theory Product of the modern industrializing world Reaction to disruptive economic & social change Especially where an ethno-cultural group feels disadvantaged Nationalist intellectuals and ideologues emerge Demand political autonomy 2

3. Overview: 19 th century Economic changes Demographic changes Political changes: movement towards greater democracy Context: industrializing Britain; liberalizing tendencies in the direction of mass politics 3

4. Take five economic indicators & three time periods* Living standards Handling or avoiding economic crises Industrialization Emigration Economic justice *1800-1850; 1850-1880; 1880-1914 4

5. Tables: Five economic indicators An uncontroversial choice of indicators (I think!) Fundamental for economic well-being Simple scoring system: bit like noughts and crosses Could devise a more complex scoring system but … Score of 1 indicates a substantial gain Score of 0 indicates little or no improvement 5

6. Five economic indicators, 1800-50: Nationalist Ireland (South) Living standards: no gain Handling or avoiding economic crises: no gain Industrialization: no gain Emigration: no gain Economic justice: no gain OVERALL SCORE: No gains (0) Union not working: Repealers 6

7. Five economic indicators, 1800-50: Unionist Ireland (North) Living standards: no gain Handling or avoiding economic crises: no gain Industrialization: gain* Emigration: no gain Economic justice: gain OVERALL SCORE: Two gains (+2) *Rev Henry Cooke: look on Belfast and be a Repealer if you can 7

8. Summary, 1800-1850 Southern Ireland: no major gains in any of the 5 economic indicators, so no obvious economic reasons to favour the Union North of Ireland: some gains (though limited), so some economic reasons to favour the Union 8

9. Five economic indicators, 1850-80: Nationalist Ireland (South) Living standards: gain Handling/avoiding economic crises: no gain? Industrialization: no gain Emigration: no gain Economic justice: no gain? OVERALL SCORE: One gain (1) 9

10. Five economic indicators, 1850-80: Unionist Ireland (North) Living standards: gain Handling/avoiding economic crises: gain Industrialization: gain Emigration: no gain Economic justice: gain OVERALL SCORE: Four gains (+4) 10

11. Summary 1850-1880 Southern Ireland: some limited economic progress North of Ireland: substantial economic progress on most fronts 11

12. Five economic indicators, 1880-1914: Nationalist Ireland (South) Living standards: gain Handling/avoiding economic crises: gain Industrialization: gain Emigration: no gain Economic justice: gain OVERALL SCORE: Four gains (4) 12

13. Five economic indicators, 1880-1914: Unionist Ireland (North) Living standards: gain Handling/avoiding economic crises: gain Industrialization: gain Emigration: no gain Economic justice: gain OVERALL SCORE: Four gains (+4) 13

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15. Belfast 1911: the industrial success story Industrial capital of the island Two world-class shipbuilding yards Major engineering works: Sirocco, Mackies, others Internationally-renowned Linen industry Other industries So Ulster Unionists pro-Union? 15

16. Summary, 1880-1914 Southern Ireland: substantial economic gains on most fronts North of Ireland: maintaining economic gains Paradox: “last years of the Union were the most prosperous!” 16

17. Do Economic forces matter?: Ulster Unionism Ireland’s only industrial city: Belfast Based on Free Trade and World exports Economic success group confidence Business class: financial resources for anti-HR agitation and eventually guns DEMOGRAPHIC implications 17

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21. Population: political importance Numbers vital to political power in a democratizing era Compacting of Protestant and Unionist population of Ireland in East Ulster Industrialization created a critical mass of Protestants and Unionists in East Ulster Capable of resisting Home Rule Underpinning all this: industrializing economy 21

22. Do economic forces matter?: Irish nationalism Long litany of economic woes No great economic progress pre-1880 - Emigration, Famine & Land War Formative period of Irish nationalism before 1880s False optimism: political autonomy economic prosperity 22

23. Conclusion Best to see economic forces in conjunction with political and other historical forces Eg Land War, 1879-1882: - Agricultural Depression (European-wide) - But role also of political leadership: Parnell & Davitt - in conjunction to mass mobilisation powerful Home Rule movement 23

24. Conclusion (contd.) “If really pressed, my view is that, taking the long view, cultural and political forces take precedence over economic factors in the making of Irish nationalism and Ulster Unionism, even though arguments for and against the Union are often dressed up in economic terms.” - Liam Kennedy 24