1. Measuring Cybercrime Pieter Hartel

2. How? Victim reporting initiatives »FBI Internet Criminal Complaint Centre Population and business surveys »CBS (Statistics Netherlands) Technology based information »Verizon Risk team Meta analyses »United Nations Office of Drugs & Crime Police recorded crime statistics »Lecture 5 Cyber-crime Science 2

3. 3

4. Victim reporting initiatives 2012 was the 13 th year Almost 300,000 complaints in 2012 500M$ loss 91% US, 1.4% CA, 0.14% NL Numerous investigations, arrests Cyber-crime Science 4 [IC312] IC3. 2012 Internet Crime Report. Internet Crime Complaint center, Mar 2013. http://www.ic3.gov/media/annualreport/2012_IC3Report.pdf. http://www.ic3.gov/media/annualreport/2012_IC3Report.pdf.

5. Method Cyber-crime Science 5

6. Complaint form See https://complaint.ic3.gov/https://complaint.ic3.gov/ Description of the actors »Target Information (name, …) »Offender information (name, IP…) »Witnesses (name, …) »Local police office (name, …) Description of the incident »Related to an online service? (mail, …) »Monetary Loss ($) »Means of payment (Cash, PayPal, …) Cyber-crime Science 6

7. Frequently reported crimes ComplaintFemaleMaleTotal Auto fraud6,28210,87717,159 Real estate fraud8,9295,50314,432 FBI impersonation email5,9118,23014,141 Intimidation/extortion5,1343,1908,324 Romance scams2,5491,9274,476 Scareware/Randomware6441,3251,969 Hit man6297251,354 Total30,07831,77761,855 Cyber-crime Science 7

8. Discussion And the other 240,000 complaints? Is this the tip of the iceberg? How effective is case matching? How many arrests? Cyber-crime Science 8

9. 9

10. Population and business surveys 2012 was the 5 st year N=78,000, response 38% Uniform geographical distribution 95% confidence interval <2% Cyber-crime Science 10 [CBS13] CBS. Veiligheidsmonitor 2012. Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, Den Haag, 2013. http://www.cbs.nl/nl-NL/menu/themas/veiligheid-recht/publicaties/publicaties/archief/2013/2013- veiligheidsmonitor-2012-pub.htm. http://www.cbs.nl/nl-NL/menu/themas/veiligheid-recht/publicaties/publicaties/archief/2013/2013- veiligheidsmonitor-2012-pub.htm.

11. Method Random sample from NL population 15+ »First letter with link to online form »Second letter two weeks later with paper form »Phone reminder again two weeks later Cyber-crime Science 11

12. Question 13: Hacking During the last 12 MONTHS has it ever happened that somebody with malicious intent broke in or logged in on a computer, email account, website or profile site (e.g. Hyves, Facebook, Twitter) of your own of anyone else in your household? a)Someone broke in / logged in on a computer b)Someone broke in / logged in on an email account c)Someone broke in / logged in on a website Cyber-crime Science 12

13. Victimization in NL % of the population affected2012 Property crime13% Vandalism8% Violent crime3% Traditional Crime20% Hacking6% Cyber bullying3% E-commerce fraud3% Identity theft2% Cyber crime12% Cyber-crime Science 13

14. Crime drops Cyber-crime Science 14 [Far11] G. Farrell, A. Tseloni, J. Mailley, and N. Tilley. The crime drop and the security hypothesis. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 48(2):147-175, May 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022427810391539. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022427810391539

15. Discussion Do the respondents understand the cyber questions? Should the cyber questions be integrated? Cyber-crime Science 15

16. Cyber-crime Science 16

17. Technology based information 2013 was the 9 th year 47,000 incidents Of which 621 confirmed data breaches Cyber-crime Science 17 [Ver13] Verizon. Data Breach Investigations report. Verizon Risk Team, 2013. http://www.verizonenterprise.com/DBIR/2013/. http://www.verizonenterprise.com/DBIR/2013/.

18. Method 19 partners First-hand forensic evidence Reviewed and validated Cyber-crime Science 18

19. Who? Threat actor categories trend Cyber-crime Science 19 N=621

20. What? Threat action categories Cyber-crime Science 20 N=47626

21. Discovery Late and by someone else! Cyber-crime Science 21

22. Discussion What does this say about the population? Why are incidents discovered so late and by others? Cyber-crime Science 22

23. Cyber-crime Science 23

24. Meta analysis 1 st year Global connectivity revolution Much of the Internet is privately owned Cyber-crime Science 24 [UNO13] UNODC. Chapter 2 of Comprehensive Study on Cybercrime. United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Feb 2013. http://www.unodc.org/documents/organized- crime/UNODC_CCPCJ_EG.4_2013/CYBERCRIME_STUDY_210213.pdf.http://www.unodc.org/documents/organized- crime/UNODC_CCPCJ_EG.4_2013/CYBERCRIME_STUDY_210213.pdf

25. Method Surveys from 69 countries, 40 businesses, 16 universities, and 11 organizations Caveat Cyber-crime Science 25 Number of specialised police per 100,000 Police recorded offence per 100,000

26. Cybercrime is increasing More in the news than homicide Law enforcement sees increasing trends Increasing use of ICT creates opportunity »More suitable targets online »Few opportunities for guardianship »Reduced self control Cyber-crime Science 26

27. Compared to conventional crime Cyber-crime Science 27 % respondents reporting victimization in last year, 2011 or latest available Email acc. hacked Phish- ing Iden- tity theft Online credit card fraud Burg- lary Rob- bery Car theft

28. Conclusions “Cyber” creates opportunity Cybercrime is increasing Measuring cybercrime correctly is hard Cyber-crime Science 28