1. Background for climate negotiations Rules and practices

2. Content Science recap Dirty job One step backward Practicalities

3. Science recap

4.  “….stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.  Such a level should be achieved within a time- frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.”

5.  The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner. Environment Society Economy Environment

6. Key messages of science (AR4, Stern)  Human-induced change is unequivocal  Faster than expected…  Impacts generally negative  Compounding poverty, fragility, inequality  Warming beyond 2°C = “danger” (EU promoted)  Prevention is cheaper than cure ( globally)  Early action costs less than inaction  Stern: 5 to 20 times less (global estimate)  Pathway to “safety” will knock <3% off global GDP growth to 2030  <0.12% per annum

7. SOURCE: Stern Review; IPCC, 4TH Assessment Report, Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report Global average temperature increases above 2°C are expected to cause significant ecological and social disruption Temperature above preindustrial 4. Ecosystem 6. GDP 1. Weather 2. Water 3. Food 5. Social 1º C2º C3º C4º C5º C Scenario A1B IPCC AR4 worst case scenarios Changes in water availability, threatening up to a billion people Threat to local water supply as glaciers melt Major cities around the world threatened by sea-level rise Many more species face extinction Ecosystems extensively and irreversibly damaged More than a billion people may have to migrate – increasing the risk of conflicts Loss of up to 20% of global GDP Loss of GDP in developing countries Falling yields in many developed regions Falling crop yields in many developing regions More intense storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding, and heat waves

8. Impacts – evolution of knowledge (2001-2009)

9. Sea level rise -projection

10. Dirty job

11. Continued global emission growth means 1.1ºC - 6.4ºC global average temperature increase during 21 st century year Projected global temperature increase

12. Projected and observed fossil fuel emissions

13. IndicatorEmissionsProbability of ecxeeding 2ºC Intervallu m Representative case Total CO 2 emissio n 2000– 49 886 Gt CO 2 8–37%20% 1,000 Gt CO 2 10–42%25% 1,158 Gt CO 2 16–51%33% 1,437 Gt CO 2 29–70%50% Total Kyoto gas emissi on 2000– 49 1,356 Gt CO 2 eq.8–37%20% 1,500 Gt CO 2 eq.10–43%26% 1,678 Gt CO 2 eq15–51%33% 2,000 Gt CO 2 eq.29–70%50% An emission budget of a trillion tonnes CO2 during the first 50 years of this century. Of that budget, we already used up a third in the first nine years At present rates of emissions, we will use up the remaining two-thirds in another 20 years, by around 2030 The Risk

14. Current proposals leave us on track to 3 degrees or more! Source:IPCC WG3 AR4,, den Elzen, van Vuuren; Meinshausen; Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0; Catalyst analysis; C-ROADS Global GHG emissions and pathways for GHG stability GtCO2e per year Expected temperature increase 3.0˚C 2.0˚C 1.8˚C Probability of temperatur e increase under 2˚C 15-30% 40-60% 70-85% Low range of proposals High range of proposals Peak at 550 ppm, long-term stabilization 550 ppm Peak at 510 ppm, long-term stabilization 450 ppm Peak at 480 ppm, long-term stabilization 400 ppm

15. Delay in peaking of emissions

16. Financing needs and sources assuming 25% caps in developed countries, € billion, annual average 2010-20 rounded to nearest € 5 billion Mitigation 10-25 Adaptation 10-20 Public fiscal revenues 10-20 Total need 45-50 Internat- ional transport levies 5-20 Concess- ional debt 5-15 Public finance 10-15 ETS auction revenues 65-100 Carbon market inter- ventions 10-20 Direct carbon markets 55-80 ETS markets Source:Project Catalyst analysis Could be mobilised through: AAU offset purchases (~ € 5 billion) AAU market intervention (€ 0-5 billion) AAU auctioning (€ 5-30 billion) - as per Norwegian proposal Could be delivered through: Government offset purchases (~ € 5 billion) potentially increased by market interventions (€ 0-5 billion) AAU auctioning (€ 5-30 billion) - as per Norwegian proposal The developing country financing need can be met by a combination of direct and indirect carbon market financing and public finance

17. One step backward

18. Per capita fossil fuel CO 2 emissions Today 1750-2007

19. Interest groups – top 25 footprints Saudi Arabia, Malaysia Top 25 in CO2 emissions (incl. LUCF) Top 25 in GDP USA, China, EU25, Russia, India, Japan, Germany, Brazil, UK, Italy, France, Mexico, Indonesia, Iran, Thailand Myanmar, D.R.Congo Canada, Rep. Korea, Australia, S. Africa, Spain, Poland (Taiwan), Netherlands, Argentina Turkey Egypt, Nigeria, Vietnam, Philippines, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Pakistan Top 25 in Population

20. Assessing the problem Negotiations are driven by science  Growing confidence in IPCC assessments  Caveat: re “Summary for policy-makers” Motivation to act is highly variable  Low spatial correlation between cause and effect Large variation in capacity to cope  Many losers - but some short-term winners

21. Debate of the appropriate response Mitigation or Adaptation?  Mitigation = division, confrontation  Vulnerability = unifying condition  Adaptation = unifying message  Adaptation first?

22. Lost in translation? Responsibility  “common but differentiated responsibilities”  historical responsibility (equity)  responsibility for the future  national circumstances,“respective capabilities”  burdens or opportunities

23. 11 Mar 2008 23 Mitigation strategy: options 5.Targets  National OR sectoral  Absolute OR intensity 6.Policies  Market-based (top-down) OR  Technology-driven (bottom-up) 7.Vision  Low-hanging fruit (energy efficiency, reducing deforestation) OR  Low-carbon “future technologies”

24. Effectiveness, fairness, responsibility, potential (Data for 2000, 6 KP gases - except 1950-2000) Source: CAIT % World emissions Tons per cap (tCO2e) 1950-2000 cumulative CO2 - % world + T/cap Intensity Kt/M$GDP Excl LUCF Incl LUCF Excl LUCF Incl LUCF Energy Plus LUC Excl LUCF USA19.224.30.70 EU 2513.210.50.46 Annex I48.439.314.113.973.8% 456 T/cap 52.6% 457 T/cap 0.64 World 5.9 7.2 122 T/cap171 T/cap0.80 Non- Annex I 43.754.2 3.3 4.927.1% 42 T/cap 47.6% 103 T/cap 0.91 China13.6 3.90.98 India 4.5 1.60.67

25. Effectiveness, fairness, responsibility, potential (Data for 2000, 6 KP gases - except 1950-2000) Source: CAIT % World emissions Tons per cap (tCO2e) 1950-2000 cumulative CO2 - % world + T/cap Intensity Kt/M$GDP Excl LUCF Incl LUC F Excl LUCF Incl LUCF Energy Plus LUC Excl LUCF USA19.224.30.70 EU 2513.210.50.46 Russian Fed. 5.313.01.86 Japan 3.810.80.41 Annex I48.439.314.113.973.8% 456 T/cap 52.6% 457 T/cap 0.64 Non-Annex I43.754.2 3.3 4.927.1% 42 T/cap 47.6% 103 T/cap 0.91 China13.6 3.90.98 India 4.5 1.60.67 Brazil 2.7 5.3 5.513.40.76 Indonesia 1.4 7.0 2.414.90.84

27. Strategic parameters Aim: avoid “dangerous interference” –Two aspects: Mitigation + Adaptation To limit climate change to “safe” (tolerable) levels So that the challenge of adaptation is manageable & sustainable devt. and food security not impaired Criteria: –Inclusiveness (=> effective, fair) –Solidarity –Urgency ….but… Question: “safe”, “tolerable”, “manageable” but for whom?

28. Shared vision … differentiated future Long-term mitigation goal (50:50) Low-carbon future: technology, markets and finance –2020 peak with current technologies (efficiency) –New technologies: market share or shared remedies? (IPRs) –Market incentives vital but not enough –Need for green FDI and more public finance Differentiated commitments in common framework of accountability

29. Practicalities

30. Main actors: Parties and coalitions Parties Coalitions Non-actors Lobbyist NGOs Media

31. Major negotiating groups The Association of Small Island States: AOSIS The European Union Umbrella Group, which emerged at Kyoto and afterwards, brings the JUSSCANNZ countries except Switzerland together with the Russian Federation and Ukraine. JUSSCANNZ consists of Japan, the Unites States, Switzerland, Canada, Australia, Norway and New Zealand G-77/China Environmental Integrity Group: Swiss, Mexico, Korea BASIC - Brazil, South Africa, India and China The Secretariat of the UNFCCC

32. Negotiating groups – G-77, China Negotiating groups within the G77 & China  African Group which consists of 53 African countries, which is mainly concerned with the impacts of climate change;  Group of Latin America and the Caribbean which has 33 members and is primarily concerned with economic development opportunities;  Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) which consists of 42 members which are the especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change; and  Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) the members of which have a mutual concern regarding the impact on the oil export revenue as a result of reduced use of fossil fuel.  Least Developed Countries - countries with the lowest income

33. Regional groups  Africa  Asia  Central and Eastern Europe  Latin America and the Caribbean States (GRULAC)  Western Europe and Others (WEOG)

34. Bodies of the Convention Five bodies are established by the UNFCCC: The supreme body of the UNFCCC is the Conference of Parties (COP) which meets every year and it is a supreme body of the UNFCCC. comprised of all Parties that have ratified the Convention; The COP is supported by the Secretariat, Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice (SBSTA) and the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI): SBSTA provides scientific, technical and methodological advice to the COP SBI assist with the assessment and review of the implementation of the Convention The two bodies (SBSTA and SBI) also work on compliance, mechanisms and capacity building.

35. Bodies of the Protocol  Conference/Meeting of the Parties – similar role as COP under UNFCCC The COP/MOP is supported by the Secretariat, Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice (SBSTA) and the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI); SBSTA provides scientific, technical and methodological advice to the COP/MOP and the SBI assist with the assessment and review of the implementation of the Protocol;  JISC, CDM EB, Compliance committee

36. Innovations of Bali  AWG-LCA – something new… Extension of mandate in Copenhagen  AWG-KP – post 2012 structure of the Protocol Extension of mandate in Copenhagen

37. Negotiating rules Submissions Interventions Informal meetings Coalition formation Horse trading Chairing

38. Decision making process Formal rules of engagement Bodies, bodies and bodies UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol Regional representation Levels of negotiation Behind the curtains (off-record)

39. Meetings – the iceberg

40. Practicalities Information sources Daily Programme ENB Screens Documents Deciphering abbreviations When to get what? What to read, leave aside Dramatic arrangements Food and drink, logistics

41. Daily Programme  Official meetings  Informal groups  Groups other than Convention and Protocol bodies  Contact information  Status report of consideration of agenda items  Events

42. Issues – where to get the info?  Annotated agenda  Background information on the site of the Convention (www.unfccc.int)www.unfccc.int  Document counter…  Ask the neighbour, whoever comes….  The Screen…  Earth Negotiations Bulletin (www.iisd.ca) (+Eco)  Daily Programme

43. Types of documents FCCC/CP or FCCC/CMP Provisional or regular documents/agenda INF.docsInformation documents Misc.docsMiscellaneous documents Add.Addendum CRPConference room papers L. DocumentsLimited documents Non-papersInformal documents TPTechnical papers

44. Thank you! Jozsef Feiler feiler@obh.hu