1. Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity in a Divided World by Bubu Pateh Jallow, Vice Chair of the IPCC Science Working Group Lead Author, Coordinating Lead Author and Review Editor of IPCC Reports Chair of the LDC Expert Group Launching the 2007 Human Development Report Banjul, March 2008

2. Content of the Presentation
Greenhouse emissions and Concentrations
Observed Climate Change
Projected Climate Change
Climate Change Impacts with particular reference to Africa and The Gambia
Mitigating Greenhouse Gas Emissions with particular reference to Africa and The Gambia
Adapting to Climate Change with particular reference to Africa and The Gambia
Mechanisms for Political and international cooperation in the a divided world
Recommendations for Future Action

3. Aggregate Contributions of Major GHG Emitting Countries
39 (65% of World Population) of the 173 Countries are responsible for 80% of the global emissions

4. Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in The Gambia
A total of 181 Gg of Carbon Dioxide were emitted into the atmosphere while about 50,000 Gg were removed from the atmosphere by various socio-economic activities conducted in The Gambia in 1993.
Base in the Global Warming Potential Index this translates to a total uptake of about 45 Million Tons of CO2 Equivalent
With a population of 1,025,867, the per capita uptake is 44.2 Tons CO2 Equivalents/capita.

5. Global-average radiative forcing estimates and ranges

6. Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change
Gobal mean temperature
Global average
sea level
Northern hemisphere
Snow cover

7. Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time
Warmest 12 years:
1990, 1995, 1997, 1998,1999, 2000, 2001, 1002, 2003, 2004, 2005,2006
0.026
0.018
Period Rate
Years /decade

8. Projections of Future Changes in Climate
Best estimate for low scenario (B1) is 1.8°C (likely range is 1.1°C to 2.9°C), and for high scenario (A1FI) is 4.0°C (likely range is 2.4°C to 6.4°C).
Broadly consistent with span quoted for SRES in TAR, but not directly comparable

9. Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity
Surface warming following a sustained doubling of CO2 concentrations
Best estimate 3°C;
likely 2-4.5°C;
very unlikely less than 1.5°C;
higher values
not ruled out

10. Projections of Future Changes in Climate
Projected warming expected to be
greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes
and least over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean

11. Projections of Future Changes in Climate
Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes
Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions

12. Drought is increasing in most places
Mainly decrease in rain over land in tropics and subtropics, but enhanced by increased atmospheric demand (evaporation) with warming
The most important spatial pattern (top) of the monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for 1900 to 2002.
The time series (below) accounts for most of the trend in PDSI.

13. Projected Changes in Climate in The Gambia
On the average, by 2075, mean temperature of The Gambia is estimated to increase by 3oC to 4.5oC depending on the GCM used.
By 2100, rainfall in The Gambia is expected to vary from -59% to +29%.
Little change is estimated in solar radiation (-5% to + 6%) by 2100.

14. WHAT DOES THIS SCIENCE PROJECT ION MEAN FOR AFRICA AND THE GAMBIA
What are the potential IMPACTS of the Climate Changes
Are we ready for the Challenges posed by the IMPACTS

15. Agricultural production and food security
By 2080, arid and semi-arid land in Africa could increase by 5-8% (60-90 million hectares).
Crop net revenues will likely fall by as much as 90% by 2100, with small-scale farms being the most affected.
It is estimated that by 2100, parts of the sub-Sahara Africa will likely experience agricultural losses of between 2 and 7% of the GDP
In The Gambia Grain Production will decrease while Groundnut Production will increase (Be Cautioned)
Productivity of The River Gambia will increase in the short term but will decrease in the long term
Rangeland productivity will decrease in The Gambia and hence livestock will be affected.

16. Already Bad Situation of Water Resources will be exacerbated
The population at risk of increased water stress in Africa is projected to be between million people by 2020 and million people by the 2050.
A 3°C temperature increase could lead to 0.4 – 1.8 billion more people at risk of water stress.
Reduced rainfall will lead to reduction in Groundwater availability particularly in the UPPER AQUIFER from which most of the water supply for The Gambia is withdrawn
Reduced rainfall will lead to reduced freshwater availability in the River Gambia and so more saline intrusion into the River

17. Inundation and Erosion of low-lying lands will be exacerbated by climate variability and change, impacting severely on coastal settlements
Projected sea level rise would increase flooding, particularly on the coasts of eastern Africa;
Sea level rise will likely increase the high socioeconomic and physical vulnerability of coastal cities.
Sea Level Rise of one metre will inundate the Capital City (Banjul) of The Gambia
The cost of adaptation to sea level rise could amount to at least 5-10% of GDP.

18. Anthropogenic Climate Change will negatively impact Human health in Africa
A 5-7% potential increase (mainly altitudinal) in malaria distribution is projected, with little increase in the latitudinal extent of the disease by 2100.
It is estimated that by the 2080s an additional 80 million people will likely be at risk of malaria.

19. WE MUST FACE THE CHALLENGE
In two ways
Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Concentrations into the Atmosphere
Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change

20. Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases
On mitigation, the GHDR calls on developed countries to demonstrate leadership by cutting greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80% of 1990 levels by 2050 and Developing countries cut emissions by 20% of 1990 levels by 2050.
The report advocates a mix of carbon taxation, more stringent cap-and-trade programmes, energy regulation, and international cooperation on financing for low-carbon technology transfer.

21. All sectors and regions have the potential to contribute to Mitigation of Emissions

22. Mitigation of GHG Emissions in The Gambia
Rural electrification using solar generators;
Greenhouse Gas Abatement using Improved Cooking Stoves to reduce fuelwood consumption: Project proposal of US $ 20 Million over a 20 year horizon to serve 25,000 households nationwide
Reducing CO2 emissions from organic waste combustion through composting: Project Proposal of US $ 1.4 Million covering a period of 15 year horizon

23. Mitigation of GHG emissions in The Gambia
Fuel Switching through Replacement of fuelwood by liquefied petroleum gas: Project Proposal at a cost of US $ 3.9 Million to increase Penetration of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) over a period of 30 years and covering 18,000 households
Carbon sequestration through forest management: A Project Proposal at a cost of US $ 2.6 Million on Reforestation and popularisation of community forestry for a 7 year horizon and to cover 7,400 hectares.

24. Policies are available to governments to realise mitigation of climate change
Effectiveness of policies depends on national circumstances, their design, interaction, stringency and implementation
Integrating climate policies in broader development policies
Regulations and standards
Taxes and charges
Tradable permits
Financial incentives
Voluntary agreements
Information instruments
Research and development

25. Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts

26. What are Ranges of Adaptation Measures
Africa has developed several copings strategies to adapt to current climate variability but these will be inadequate to adapt to climate change;
A range of factors including wealth, technology, education, information, skills, infrastructure, access to resources, and various psychological factors and management capabilities determine the adaptive capacity of a nation or continent.
Africa is very poor in most of these factors;
HENCE, ADAPTIVE CAPACITY OF AFRICA IS VERY LOW

27. What are Ranges of Adaptation Measures
Emerging range of livelihood adaptation practices being observed in parts of Africa include:
Diversification of livelihood activities,
Institutional architecture;
Adjustments in farming operations;
Income-generation projects;
Migration to earn an income and make remittance; and
The move towards off- or non-farm livelihood incomes.

28. Suggested Adaptation Activities in Africa
Rehabilitation of natural coastal buffers such as mangroves and coral reefs and provision of alternate livelihood options to relieve the root causes of destruction of coastal buffers.
Improve risk and disaster management capacity
Increase institutional capacity to implement integrated coastal zone management, including climate change effects on productive coastal systems, in particular in the water, fisheries and coastal agriculture sectors.

29. Suggested Adaptation Activities in Africa
Implementation of measures at community level
Water harvesting techniques
Introduction of drought resistant varieties of local crops
Facilitation of food banks
Promotion of irrigation
Implementation of demonstration projects to improve capacity and awareness for sustainable water management including:
Run-off dikes to capture rainfall
Promotion of water efficient technologies
Introduction and dissemination of ‘drip irrigation’ techniques

30. Specific Adaptation Measures for The Gambia
Focus
Options (s)
Agriculture
Diversification and Intensification of Agricultural Production, Processing, and Marketing (US $ 3.71 Million)
Improved livestock and rangeland management for food security and environmental sustainability (US $ 2.8 Million)
Coastal Zone
Restoration/Protection of coastal environments (US $ 2.3 Million)
Fisheries
Improving productivity and safety in artisanal fishing operations (US $ 300,000)
Forestry
Expansion of Community Participation in the Management of Forests and Protected Areas (US $ 4.23 Million)
Expansion and Intensification of Agro-forestry and Re-forestation Activities (US $ 8.15 Million)
Health
Reduction of disease burden related to climate change (US $ Million)
Water Resources
Rehabilitation of Early Warning Systems on Climate Related Natural Hazards (US $ 450,000)
Improvement of Fresh Water Availability (US $ 1.1 Million)

31. Recommendations based on the GHDR
Develop a multilateral framework for avoiding dangerous climate change under the post-2012 Kyoto Protocol and Strengthen the framework for international cooperation
Stronger Political Will and International Cooperation

32. Stronger Political Will and International Cooperation
At COP 13 in Bali, a comprehensive process was launched to enable the full, effective and sustained implementation of the Convention through long-term cooperative action, now, up to and beyond 2012, in order to reach an agreed outcome.
The agreed outcome will address
(a) A shared vision for long-term cooperative action, including a long-term global goal for emission reductions,
(b) Enhanced national/international action on mitigation of climate change;

33. Stronger Political Will and International Cooperation
(c) Enhanced action on adaptation, including, international cooperation to support urgent implementation of adaptation actions, risk management and risk reduction strategies, disaster reduction strategies , economic diversification to build resilience; and ways to strengthen the catalytic role of the Convention.
(d) Enhanced action on technology development and transfer to support action on mitigation and adaptation,
(e) Enhanced action on the provision of financial resources and investment to support action on mitigation and adaptation and technology cooperation,

34. Recommendations based on the GHDR
Put in place policies for sustainable carbon budgeting—the agenda for mitigation
Put climate change adaptation at the centre of the post-2012 Kyoto framework and international partnerships for poverty reduction
Review of The Kyoto Protocol and
Enhance Contribution of Carbon Markets

35. Review of The Kyoto Protocol
COP/MOP 3 also Agreed that the second review of the Kyoto Protocol shall aim to further enhance the implementation of the Protocol and further elaborate upon a number of its elements, in particular adaptation;
The Second Review shall attempt to address the issues of
(a) Extending the share of proceeds to assist in meeting the costs of adaptation to joint implementation and emissions trading;
(b) The scope, effectiveness and functioning of the flexibility mechanisms, including ways and means to enhance an equitable regional distribution of CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM projects;
(c) The minimization of adverse effects of climate change, effects on international trade, and social, environmental and economic impacts on other Parties

36. The Carbon Market has the Potential
In negotiations on a successor pact to the Kyoto Protocol that will assist in the avoidance of dangerous climate change, efforts must be directed to Mobilizing Finance for the Climate Challenge;
Predictable carbon pricing is needed to direct world investment flows toward an economy that could minimize climate change,
Sufficiently high and long-term predictable price for carbon will be central for mobilizing capital for the new economy,

37. The Carbon Market has the Potential
As regards to financing to meet the challenges of global warming,
the Adaptation Fund of the Kyoto Protocol must urgently and quickly become operational to ‘climate proof’ vulnerable economies,
the Clean Development Mechanism of the Protocol, which has the potential to generate up to $100 billion of investment flowing from North to South into clean and green energy projects, needed to be supplemented by significant contributions from industrialized countries.
Developing countries need all the financial and technical assistance in order to make the transition to lower carbon economies

38. Recommendations based on the GHDR
The Human Development Report argues for reforms including:
Additional financing for climate proofing infrastructure and building resilience,
Northern governments should allocate at least $86 billion annually by 2015 (0.2% of projected GDP).
Increased international support for the development of sub-Saharan Africa’s capacity to monitor climate and improve public access to meteorological information.
The integration/mainstreaming of adaptation planning into wider plans, programmes and strategies for reducing poverty and extreme inequalities, including PRSPs.

39. Conclusions and Recommendations of GHDR
The UNDP Global Human Development Report: Fighting climate change concludes that “one of the hardest lessons taught by climate change is that the historically carbon intensive growth, and the profligate consumption in rich nations that has accompanied it, is ecologically unsustainable.”
But the Report further argues, “with the right reforms, it is not too late to cut greenhouse gas emissions to sustainable levels without sacrificing economic growth: rising prosperity and climate security are not conflicting objectives.”

40. Ban Ki Moon – UN Secretary General
“we know enough to act; if we do not act now the impact of climate change will be devastating; we have affordable measures and technologies to begin addressing the problem right now; but
what we do not have is time”.

41. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Governor of California,
The GHDR has made it clear that under Climate Change
We are a divided world
Bounded by Common but differentiated Responsibility
But as Arnold told the Heads of States and Governments at the UN General Assembly:
“rich nations and poor nations have common but different responsibilities, but one responsibility that all nations have now is
action”.

42. HENCE THE TIME TO ACT IS NOW

43. THANK YOU