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Chereshnev V.A. (Institute of Immunology and Physiology of the Ural Branch of the RAS), Gamburtsev A.G.(Institute of the Physics of the Earth RAS), Sigachev.

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Presentation on theme: "Chereshnev V.A. (Institute of Immunology and Physiology of the Ural Branch of the RAS), Gamburtsev A.G.(Institute of the Physics of the Earth RAS), Sigachev."— Presentation transcript:

1 Chereshnev V.A. (Institute of Immunology and Physiology of the Ural Branch of the RAS), Gamburtsev A.G.(Institute of the Physics of the Earth RAS), Sigachev A.V. (The station of emergency care, Moscow ) ATLAS OF TEMPORAL VARIATIONS. EMERGENCY CALL DYNAMICS FOR THE LAST FIVE YEARS IN MOSCOW

2 In the five volumes of the Atlas of Temporal Variations of Natural, Anthropogenic, and Social Processes, a significant place is allotted to issues related to the influence of natural, anthropogenic, and social factors on human health. В пяти томах Атласа временных вариаций природных, антропогенных и социальных процессов большое место занимают вопросы, связанные с влиянием внешних факторов – природных, техногенных и социальных - на состояние здоровья людей.

3 The Atlases pursue two main goals. The first of them is scientific and consists in discovering the unknown behavior pattern of natural and social processes. The second, practical, aim is to ensure the preservation of mankind and the biosphere. Преследуются две цели: научная – установить неизвестные ранее закономерности в протекании природных и социальных процессов и практическая – способствовать сохранению человечества и биосферы.

4 We investigate the dynamics of the time series of the number emergency calls (NEC) to the ambulance service of Moscow with a daily survey for a variety of diseases during a period 04/2006 11/2011 Мы исследуем ряды вызовов скорой помощи (ВСП) Москвы с апреля 2006 по ноябрь 2011

5 We will consider seasonal and weekly changes, annual New Year celebrations, and the anomalously hot summer of 2010 have been revealed Мы рассмотрим сезонные и недельные ритмы, изменения связанные с встречей Нового года и с аномальной жарой 2010 г

6 We are going emergence features of dynamics of time series, and to understand as they are connected with external influences Стремимся выявить особенности динамики временных рядов, и понять как они связаны с внешними воздействиями

7 Time series

8 Hypertonic disease Aggravation of hypertonic disease and hypertonic cris Myocardial infarction Stable and unstable angina pectoris Chronic ischemic heart disease

9 Cardiac dysrhythmia Acute cardiovascular deficiency Stroke Hypotension Epilepsy

10 Respiratory diseases Acute Respiratory Infection of rhinitis, sinusitis, front ARVI Flu Acute bronchitis

11 Time-spectral Diagrams We see seasonal and weekly rhithmes СВАН-диаграммы. Выделяются сезонный и недельный ритмы

12 Stable and unstable angina pectoris Myocardial infarction

13 Acute cardiovascular deficiency Aggravation of hypertonic disease

14 Cardiac dysrhythmia coronary heart disease

15 Epilepsy diabetes

16 stomach ulcer and 12-perstny gut stomach ulcer and normal childbirth 12-perstny gut

17 Weekly rhythms

18 Cause and effect links between diseases and external influences Причинно-следственные связи между заболеваниями и воздействующими факторами

19 Seasonal rhythm determine of wide and rapid changes in atmospheric pressure and temperature especially in the winter on the background of low temperature, wind and reduced illumination. The changes can reach 30 gPa and more during one day in the Winter. Сезонный ритм обусловлен разницей в динамике Т и Р летом и зимой. Зимой в течение суток перепады могут достигать 30 гПа и выше. А в дни когда перепады более 10 гПа вызывают скорую помощью.

20 The time series of P for Moscow do not have an annual rhythm where as it observes for Т and dispersion Р Ряды Р для Москвы не имеют годового ритма, а ряды Т и дисперсии Р имеют atmospheric pressure air temperature


22 Phase portraits Фазовые портреты

23 Р Spring SUMMER Autumn Winter

24 ТºТº

25 Ураган в Москве летом 1998 г. Hurricane Hurricane in Moscow in the summer of 1998.

26 Some features in the dynamics of ambulance calls for men and women of different ages Черты динамики вызовов Скорой помощи для мужчин и женщин разного возраста

27 Cardiac dysrhythmia 15-30 30-60 >60 MEN Women

28 Myocardial infarction MEN Women 15-30 30-60 >60

29 Hypertonic disease

30 Stroke

31 Hypotension

32 Pneumonia

33 Gastritis, duodenitis

34 Flu

35 Frustrated calls

36 Myocardial infarction 15-30 30-60 Men Women > 60

37 Aggravation of hypertonic disease 15-30 30-60 Women  60 Men

38 15-30 30-60 > 60 Stroke

39 Hypotension 15-30 30-60 > 60

40 Meeting of new year

41 diseases of vessels of a brain nervous breakdowns

42 Hypertonic disease cardiovascular diseases

43 Comparison of twomonth fragments of the time series of ambulance calls concerning the aggravation of hypertonic disease in Moscow between the years when the New Year holidays were absent or present.

44 The Hot Summer 2010

45 Out-of-hospital pneumonia Nervous diseases Stroke Hypotension Tonsillitis

46 Patients with a hypertension and cardiovascular diseases didn't react to abnormally hot summer Hypertonic disease 2009

47 Patients with a diseases react to abnormally hot summer: Nervous diseases Stroke Hypotension Tonsillitis 2010

48 Dynamics of the number of emergency calls in the Central Clinical Hospital RAS, 14 years ).

49 Timeseries specifics associated with seasonal changes, the hot summer of 2010 and some socials factors. Итак мы поняли, что динамика вызовов Скорой помощи в большой степени связана с внешними факторами – сменой сезонов, жарким летом 2010 и с некоторыми социальными воздействиями

50 The work was supported by the RAS Presidium program Basic Sciences for Medicine. We are grateful to the Puchkov Ambulance and Emergency Care Station, Moscow, for the materials made available to us. Thank You very much!

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