Just the Tip of the Iceberg… Unexpected material delays Unrealistic starting point Unexpected labor losses Etc. Need a tool that... And provides guidance on how to recover from the unexpected. Provides a much better starting point
The Plan In the beginning was the plan. And the plan came with assumptions. And the assumptions were without form. And the plan was completely without substance. And the darkness was upon the faces of the Workers And they spoke unto their Group Heads, saying: “It is a crock of &*%# and it stinketh.” And the Group Heads went unto their Section Heads and sayeth: “It is a pail of dung, and none may abide the odor thereof.” And the Section Heads went unto their Managers and sayeth to them: “It is a container of excrement and it is very strong, such that none may abide by it.” And the Managers went unto their Director and sayeth unto him: “It contains that which aids plant growth and it is very strong.” And the Director went unto the Vice President and sayeth unto him: “It promoteth growth and it is very powerful.” And the Vice President went unto the General Manager and sayeth unto him: “This powerful new plan will actively promote the growth and efficiency of the Department.” And the General Manager looked upon the plan and saw that is was good. And the plan became policy.
The Biggest RISK Is an UNREALISTIC Baseline Create a realistic plan that exposes issues upfront, but looks “bad” Keep a plan that looks “good” but is known to be wrong
The Real World Construction projects are very complex. Labor productivity issues are a reality. There are always unexpected delays and disruptions that management reacts to. Management corrective actions constantly change the course of the project. Estimates are often “padded” to cover risks. We are dependent on project planning tools.
Elements FewMany Interrelations Few Many Low High Med Med Business System/Project Complexity Lots of trades Lots of activities Long duration
Parts FewMany Relations Few Many Picking the Right Tool for the Job Spreadsheet See 4-part video series on www.viasimsolutions.com for full description Network Models SystemDynamics
CPM-Based Tools Are Misleading Double resources to cut duration in half. Double people’s hours to cut duration in half. If resource is not available for the requested time, resource sits idle. Durations (and, hence, full project plans) can be input with no verification of assumptions. We conduct complex analyses with variables that are suspicious to begin with.
Major Flaws with CPM Task duration is an input. Productivity impacts are not considered. Management corrective actions are not included.
Resulting Problems Assumptions are not challenged. All resources are considered equal. Resource leveling is often inconsistent. Project plan is static. Project plan is often difficult to defend. Cost and schedule risks increase. Lower probability of success.
Real World Example: Aircraft Sensor Development for Defense Contractor 39 mo, $13.1M 77 mo, $13.1M MS Project: Unleveled MS Project: Leveled (Weekly) MS Project: Leveled (Monthly) 599 mo, $13.1M Too optimistic. Too unpredictable. Too pessimistic.
Dynamic Progress Method Addresses major flaws of CPM. – Duration is an output. – Productivity is accounted for. – Management corrective actions are incorporated. Uses the power found in today’s PC’s to create operational simulations of projects. Incorporates additional knowledge about project management.
Work To Do Completed Work Completion Rate Resource Productivity “Effective” Labor Hours Actual Labor Hours Number of Resources Completed Work Task 1 Completed Work Task N Task Dependencies FS, SS etc. Earned Value Calculations Corrective Actions
Project Manager Assumptions: 105 PERT/CPM use this input: Work To Do Completed Work Resource Productivity Actual Labor Hours Number of Resources DPM uses these inputs: + Assumed Productivity Level (100%) + Assumed Availability (Days, Hrs/Day) (8 hrs/day) = Expected Duration (10 days)(80 hours)Expected Amount of Work Joe (1) +
Example Continued… 39 mo, $13.1M 599 mo, $13.1M 77 mo, $13.1M 71 mo, $13.9M 84 mo, $15.4M MS Project: Unleveled MS Project: Leveled (Weekly) MS Project: Leveled (Monthly) Too optimistic. More realistic. Realistic and consistent. Too unpredictable. Too pessimistic. pmBLOX: Productivity 100% pmBLOX: Productivity 85%
Benefits of DPM Provides actionable information to make decisions before problems occur. Prevents resource allocation issues. Shows which corrective actions are most effective and for which circumstances. Identifies high risk areas. Quantifies project acceleration options and shortest possible duration. www.dynamicprogressmethod.com
Primary Uses of DPM Project validation: – Task execution – Management corrective actions Project acceleration: – Cost and labor consequences of acceleration – Theoretical shortest duration
Benefits of Project Validation Ensure that baseline plans are realistic and defendable prior to start of project. Ensure that “course corrections” and new plans are realistic and defendable. Reduce project risk. Reduce midstream re-planning efforts. Test consequences of underlying assumptions. Ensure reliability of cost/schedule estimates. Save staff time.
Using for Validation End Customer General Contractor Subcontractors Each “level” of the hierarchy can use pmBLOX to validate the plans from the “level” below. A A A For competitive bids at each “level”, pmBLOX can be used for apples-to-apples comparison, as well as a non- biased 3 rd party. B B B
Why Should You Care About DPM? For Projects: Better baseline plans Better mid-course corrections Better risk management For Litigation: Better understanding of fault. Better defensibility of plans. Better communication. HigherSuccessRate HigherSuccessRate