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The Future of Work In New York State Placeholder image borrowed from the web.

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1 The Future of Work In New York State Placeholder image borrowed from the web

2 Work is changing  Robots and automation  A networked economy  Continued productivity increases  Near-zero marginal cost for goods from pharmaceuticals to video games to online college classes has potentially significant implications for production  A “sharing economic” poses threats but also offers opportunities

3 Implications for  Job quality  Who gets which jobs  Do we all work less, or do some work more and some not at all?  Education needed for jobs…and, changing jobs to take advantage of increased education.  Income polarization or a broad middle class?

4 The labor force is changing, too  Discussion has often focused on the changing nature of jobs.  Let’s look, as well, at the changing labor force. What can we expect in New York over the next 30 years.

5 Population is expected to grow, but with a smaller share in working age (working age=20-65 years old) New York State 2010 to 2040 projected change Total population: 7% 65 and older: 41% 70 and older 50% projected actual

6 Population is expected to grow, but with a smaller share in working age Implications Higher productivity needed from a smaller labor force? Higher share of working-age people in the labor force? Changing idea of “working age?” projected actual

7 Population is expected to grow, but with a smaller share in working age What could change the projection? domestic migration Immigration Not much else (fertility rate & longevity change slowly & pretty predictably) projected actual

8 It is hard to imagine change in NYS on the scale some states have seen Domestic migration and immigration make a big difference. Aging population does as well. The five fastest-growing states over the past 30 years more than doubled in population, something hard to imagine in NYS. The five slowest-growing states over the past 30 years averaged very close to the actual projection for NYS over the next 30 years. projected actual If NY grows at the rate fast-growing states did over the past 30 years Standard projection

9 It is hard to imagine change in NYS on the scale some states have seen Still, keep in mind that, as philosophers from Niels Bohr to Yogi Berra have said: “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” projected actual If NY grows at the rate fast-growing states did over the past 30 years Standard projection

10 It is hard to imagine change in NYS on the scale some states have seen Could anything realistically make the fast growth projection happen? Climate change repopulating upstate cities, as the coasts and Southwest become less attractive? projected actual If NY grows at the rate fast-growing states did over the past 30 years Standard projection

11 Is the education shortfall in the labor force…or in the jobs? We often hear that future workers will need more education to compete. No doubt it’s good advice to invest in education. But, the jobs that the Bureau of Labor Statistics projects will be in NYS in 10 years don’t require even as much education as workers already have. Maybe the focus should be on restructuring jobs so that they make better use of the education—and potential productivity—of workers? projected College degree actual

12 Is the education shortfall in the labor force…or in the jobs? A quarter of jobs in NYS require less than a high school degree…and that number is projected to grow, not shrink. How do we improve wages in those jobs, make sure there are career ladders up from them, and urge on the public, private and nonprofit sectors a different business model so that there is a better match between the skills of the labor force and the jobs available? projected Less than High School actual

13 Top 10 fastest growing jobs projected for NYS 2012 to Home Health Aides 2. Personal Care Aides 3. Food Preparation and Serving Workers 4. Retail Salespersons 5. Waiters and Waitresses 6. Janitors and Cleaners 7. Secretaries and Administrative Assistants 8. Registered Nurses 9. Restaurant Cooks 10. General and Operations Managers

14 Today 39 percent of NYS workers are people of color. Among the jobs projected to grow fastest, the share is: Share 1. Home Health Aides73%$21, Personal Care Aides 59%$23, Food Preparation and Serving Workers53%$18, Retail Salespersons 45%$22, Waiters and Waitresses 44%$19, Janitors and Cleaners58%$28, Secretaries and Administrative Assistants30%$37, Registered Nurses 39%$75, Restaurant Cooks57%$25, General and Operations Managers 23% $120,000 Median Wage

15 Projected Change in Race/Ethnicity of NYS Population Despite some issues with the definitions here, we can see:  A growing Asian population  Black population is about the same size. But note: today, immigrants make up a substantial share of the state’s black population, coming especially from the Caribbean and Africa. With many black New Yorkers leaving the state, these immigrants, and their children, are projected to keep the black population about the same share of the total as it is now.  Increasing diversity of white population as well, with many immigrants from Eastern Europe. projected actual

16 Projected Change in Race/Ethnicity of NYS Population  Immigration is very diverse in New York State. Still, the biggest changes in race/ethnic categories is expected to come from Hispanic immigration and the birth of children to Hispanic families.  The families are Dominican, Mexican, Puerto Rican, Colombian…the mix in New York State includes a wide range of Latinos. projected actual

17 Projected Change in Race/Ethnicity of NYS Population projected actual  If there is a big gap in educational attainment for Hispanics, as well as for African Americans, the growing Hispanic share of population should make us redouble our efforts to close these gaps.  While the black share is not projected to grow, closing the education gap is critical to a sustainable social, political, and economic environment. Out-migration of African Americans is no solution.

18 Projected Change in Race/Ethnicity of NYS Population projected actual  Hispanics and African Americans have considerably lower wages in New York today, even after adjusting for level of educational attainment. As the non-white share of the population increases, what will it mean for our economy if we don’t close those gaps, too?

19 Immigration Immigrants make up nearly one quarter of the New York State population, rebounding after a mid-20 th century decline to just 12 percent. There are no current state-based population projections, but here’s New York State’s history

20 Two estimates of immigration at the national level Immigration policy is one of the most contentious issues in Washington, making future policy particularly hard to predict. Other “push” and “pull” factors will also determine immigration levels—economic and social conditions in immigrant sending countries and in the United States. Pitkin Myers Census Bureau 2008

21 How will immigrants fit into the New York State economy? Three possible scenarios 1) A “Gloves Off” economy  Continued large numbers of unauthorized immigrants  Big areas of the labor market that are largely unregulated

22 How will immigrants fit into the New York State economy? Three possible scenarios 1) A “Gloves Off” economy 2) An official system of a 2 nd class labor force  Guest workers  Expansion of skilled temporary work (H1-B and related)  Long pathway to citizenship for some; no pathway for many  More and more categories of non-citizens, temporary workers but not citizens

23 How will immigrants fit into the New York State economy? Three possible scenarios 1) A “Gloves Off” economy 2) An official system of a 2 nd class labor force 3) A better regulated labor market  Few unauthorized immigrants  Legal flows that respond to labor market demands, plus family unification and refugee programs  Maximizing benefits of diversity, wide talent pool, people’s eagerness to be part of the US  …while keeping pressure to increase wages, invest in higher education, invest in technology to increase productivity

24 How will immigrants fit into the New York State economy? Three possible scenarios 1) A “Gloves Off” economy 2) An official system of a 2 nd class labor force 3) Immigration reform and a better regulated labor market It’s obvious which scenario is preferable, but how do we get there?

25 Top 1 Percent Share of Income in US and NYS  The United States is already more polarized than it has been since just before the Great Depression of the 1930s.  New York is already by many measures the most economically polarized state in the country.  How much more polarization can we sustain?


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