Presentation on theme: "Climate Change, Water and Tourism"— Presentation transcript:
1Climate Change, Water and Tourism Carlos FullerInternational and Regional Liaison Officer
2Evidence of WarmingSource: IPCCSource: NMS, Belize
3Sea Levels are Rising Guyana: Temp increase of 1°C from 1909 to 1998 Sea level rise is 5 times greater than global avg.10.2 mm per year fromRainfall patterns abnormalMore intense rainfall and longer dry spellsSource: IPCC
4More Extreme Events ! Saint Lucia Example 2009/2010: Worst drought in Saint Lucia in 40 years!Hurricane Tomas in Saint Lucia in 2010 produced 25” of rainfall in some areas in 24 hours!
5Temperature Projections Results from the Regional PRECIS ModelECHAM4 – A2HADCM3 – A2Annual warming of between 1°C and 5°C by the 2080sGreater warming in the NW Caribbean (Jamaica, Cuba, Hispaniola, Belize) than in the eastern CaribbeanGreater warming in the summer months than in the cooler and traditionally drier months of the yearECHAM4 – B2HADCM3 – B2Mean changes in the annual surface temperature for period
6Rainfall Projections Results from the Regional PRECIS Model A drier Caribbean except for western Cuba , south Bahamas, Costa Rica and PanamaA pronounced north/south gradient in rainfall change during the dry season (January to April)Wet season becoming drierECHAM4 – A2HADCM3 – A2ECHAM4 – B2HADCM3 – B2Annual mean changes in rainfall (%) for
8Water Security:Salt water intrusionLess rainfallMore evaporation
9Vulnerability Studies on Agriculture in Belize DSSATBeans, corn and rice2°C rise in temp, ±20% change in precipitationResult: % decline in yield for beansResult: % decline in yield for riceResult: 22 – 17% decline in yield for cornPRECIS, DSSAT4 and CropwatSugarcane and Citrus2028 & 20501 & 2.5°C rise in temp± 12 & 20% change in precipitationResult: 12-17% decline in yields for sugarcaneResult: 3 – 5% decline in yields for citrus
10Forests Threatened Higher Temperatures Lower Humidity More Forest FiresMore Pests and DiseasesBelize:High temperatures & low humidityPine bark beetle infestation75% of nation’s pine forest destroyedPoor forest managementClimate changeImpacts on timber industry and biodiversityContributed to emissions of GHGsIncreased erosion – poor water quality (rivers and sea)
11Impacts of One Metre Sea level Rise for CARICOM Over 2,700 km2 land area lost (10% of The Bahamas) valued at over US$70 billionOver 100,000 people displaced (8% of population of Suriname, 5% of population of The Bahamas, 3% of population of Belize)Cost to rebuild basic housing, roads and services (water, electricity) for displaced population approximately US $1.8 billionAnnual GDP losses of US $1.2 billion (over 6% in Suriname, 5% in The Bahamas, 3% in Guyana and Belize)At least 16 multi-million dollar tourism resorts lost, with a replacement cost of over US $1.6 billion and the livelihoods of thousands of employees and communities affectedOver 1% agricultural land lost, with implications for food supply and rural livelihoods (4% in Suriname, 3% in The Bahamas, 2% in Jamaica)Transportation networks severely disruptedLoss of 10% of CARICOM island airports at a cost of over US $715 millionLands surrounding 14 ports inundated (out of 50) at a cost of over US $320 millionReconstruction cost of lost roads exceeds US $178 million (6% of road network in Guyana, 4% in Suriname, 2% in The Bahamas)Source: Simpson, et. al., (2009) An Overview of Modelling Climate Change Impacts in the Caribbean Region with contribution from the Pacific Islands, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Barbados, West Indies
12Impacts of One Metre Sea Level Rise for CARICOM Total Economic Impact:GDP loss = > US $1.2 billion per year (cumulatively US $30 billion if 1m SLR occurs in 2075)Permanently lost land value = US $70 billionReconstruction / relocation costs = $4.64 billionSource: Simpson, et. al., (2009) An Overview of Modelling Climate Change Impacts in the Caribbean Region with contribution from the Pacific Islands, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Barbados, West Indies
13CARICOM Response Operational since January 2004 Located in Endorsed by the CARICOM Heads of Government in July 2002An intergovernmental specialized agency of CARICOM with an independent management that is guided byThe CARICOM Council of Trade and Economic Development (COTED) on policy matters.A board of directors with responsibility for strategic planning.A technical secretariat headed by an Executive Director with responsibility for tactical planning.The Centre is mandated to coordinate the regional response to climate change and its efforts to manage and adapt to its projected impacts.The Centre possesses full juridical personality.Financially independentOperational sinceJanuary 2004Located inBelmopan, Belize
14The Regional Framework for Achieving Development Resilient to Climate Change “Establishes and guides the Caribbean’s direction for the continued building of resilience to the impacts of global climate change by CARICOM States”.Articulates the strategic direction for the region’s response to climate change risks.Approved by the CARICOM Heads of Government at their meeting in Georgetown, Guyana in July 2009
15The Five Strategic Elements of the Regional Framework Mainstreaming Climate Change into the SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AGENDA and work programmes of public and private institutions in all Caribbean Community countries at all levelsPromoting systems and actions to REDUCE THE VULNERABILITY of Caribbean Community countries to global Climate Change wherever possiblePromoting measures to DERIVE BENEFIT FROM THE PRUDENT MANAGEMENT of forests, wetlands, and the natural environment, in general, and to protect that natural environmentPromoting actions and arrangements to REDUCE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, including those aimed at energy-use efficiency by increasingly resorting to low-emission renewable energy sourcesPromote implementation of SPECIFIC ADAPTATION MEASURES to address key vulnerabilities in the Region.
16The Implementation Plan The Implementation Plan (IP) for the Regional Framework, defines the regional strategy for coping with Climate Change over the periodApproved by the 23rd Inter-Sessional Meeting of CARICOM Heads held in Suriname 8-9 March, 2012.
17Sectors Identified in the Regional Framework WaterCoastal and marineEnergyForestAgriculture and food securityHealthTourism
18Actions Identified IP Strategic Element 2, Goal 1 Assess, quantify and map surface and ground water resources in CARICOM States ( ) – In collaboration with GWP CaribbeanUndertake vulnerability and capacity assessment of the impacts of climate change on water ( ) - In collaboration with GWP CaribbeanAssess, quantify and evaluate water demand and consumption patterns ( ) - In collaboration with GWP Caribbean
19IP Strategic Element 2, Goal 1 (continued) Prepare water sector adaptation strategies for all CARICOM countries by 2017 – CIMH & CEHIImplement water sector adaptation strategies for all CARICOM countries ( ) – In collaboration with GWP CaribbeanDevelop climate resilient IWRM strategies in all CARICOM countries ( ) - In collaboration with GWP CaribbeanEstablish water resources management agencies where necessary and provide additional support where agencies exist ( ) – In collaboration with GWP Caribbean
20IP Strategic Element 2, Goal 1 (continued) Install water distribution infrastructure in selected countries ( )Antigua, Dominica, Jamaica and St. KittsStrengthen the resilience of water infrastructure to extreme events/natural hazards ( )Antigua, Belize, Dominica, Jamaica, St. Kitts
21Water Related Projects Implemented MACCRegional climate change policyClimate ModelingVulnerability assessment of ground water in JamaicaVulnerability assessment of surface water in BelizeDevelopment of Belize national water policy and National Integrated Water Act (NIWA)SPACCRainwater harvesting and recycling Saint Lucia Coconut Bay Hotel and ResortInstallation of salt water reverse osmosis system in Bequia, St. Vincent and the GrenadinesInstallation of irrigation system in Milton, DominicaUNESCO Coastal Aquifers ProjectJamaica and Trinidad and Tobago
22THE PROBLEM Rainfall projected to decrease in the Caribbean 26-53% decrease in precipitation by 2050More intense extreme events (storms and droughts)Hurricane Tomas in Saint Lucia in 2010 produced 25” of rainfall in some areas in 24 hours!worst drought in Saint Lucia in 40 years!
23Coconut Bay Resort and Spa Began operation in 2005All inclusive resort3 pool-water park254 roomsFour floors, four buildings
24Water Usage by Coconut Bay Resort and Spa The property uses, on average, 2.1 million gallons (9,534,000 litres) per month, or 5% of the total production for the Vieux-Fort areaCoconut Bay operates a 3-pool water park, which uses substantial quantities of water-225,000 US Gallons2nd highest consumer of water in Vieux-Fort. It uses the water equivalent of 1,726 persons per day (population of 14,561 persons), or approximately 12% of the Vieux-Fort population
25Project ComponentsRainwater harvesting system for toilet flushing and pool topping.Rainwater used for toilet flushing will be treated in sewage treatment system and recycled for landscaping-two-prong conservation of potable supplyExpected reduction in water purchased for toilet-flushing and replenishment of swimming pools by approximately 3,000,000 litres annuallySewage treatment, recycling and irrigation -for landscapingThis component will reduce the amount of water purchased for maintenance of the grounds by approximately 21,000,000 litres annually
26THE PROJECT Cost (works) EC$773 846.56 Capacity of wastewater storage tank L ( Imp gal)Capacity of north rain water storage tank L (3 962 Imp gal)Capacity of south rain water tank L (5 944 Imp gal)
27THE AGREEMENTMOU between the CCCCC, the Government of Saint Lucia and Coconut Bay indicating roles and responsibilities of each partyFull approval of project by the Development Control Authority in 2009Signed Financial Agreement between the CCCCC and Coconut BayCo financing 75:25Budget of US$325,000
28CCCCC Financial Analysis Operating costs increased – electricity to run pumpsEnvironmental benefitsthe avoided loss in revenue from tourist reef related activitiesthe avoided loss in revenue from reduced fishes landedthe avoided loss in beach and sea recreational activitiesthe avoided property damageSocial benefitsReduced demand on municipal water supplyHealthNet present cumulative economical, social and environmental benefits must range from:@ 5% discount factor US$1.5 million to US$3.3 million@10% discount factor US$1.1 million to US$2.4 million@15% Discount factor US$0.9 million to US$1.9 million
29Economist’s Conclusion From a financial perspective, CBBRAS must seek to minimize the cost associated with this system as the resort will be responsible for financing the cost associated with operating these systems.However, CBBRAS might see it differently as some of the cost included in our analysis, such as labour cost, which based on the cost scenarios range from 12% to 33% of annual total cost, can be looked at business as usual, as well as, there might be existing economies of scale and cost saving measures that our analysis did not capture.
30WHY INVEST?Enhanced resilience of resort during potable water shortagesCost savings for Coconut Bay Beach Resort and Spa!Recognition for exemplary workInitiative can be a good marketing tool
31New Activities Onstream Install 60 hydrometeorological stations in CARIFORUM States (GCCA project)Replicate the Dominica, Saint Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines pilots projects across the Caribbean (GCCA project)Petite Martinique and Carriacou, Grenada
32Website listed on Top 101 Sites for climate change! Please visit our website for further information!Carlos FullerInternational and Regional Liaison OfficerWebsite listed on Top 101 Sites for climate change!