1. Climate Change, Water and Tourism
Carlos Fuller
International and Regional Liaison Officer

2. Evidence of Warming
Source: IPCC
Source: NMS, Belize

3. Sea Levels are Rising Guyana: Temp increase of 1°C from 1909 to 1998
Sea level rise is 5 times greater than global avg.
10.2 mm per year from
Rainfall patterns abnormal
More intense rainfall and longer dry spells
Source: IPCC

4. More Extreme Events ! Saint Lucia Example
2009/2010: Worst drought in Saint Lucia in 40 years!
Hurricane Tomas in Saint Lucia in 2010 produced 25” of rainfall in some areas in 24 hours!

5. Temperature Projections
Results from the Regional PRECIS Model
ECHAM4 – A2
HADCM3 – A2
Annual warming of between 1°C and 5°C by the 2080s
Greater warming in the NW Caribbean (Jamaica, Cuba, Hispaniola, Belize) than in the eastern Caribbean
Greater warming in the summer months than in the cooler and traditionally drier months of the year
ECHAM4 – B2
HADCM3 – B2
Mean changes in the annual surface temperature for period

6. Rainfall Projections Results from the Regional PRECIS Model
A drier Caribbean except for western Cuba , south Bahamas, Costa Rica and Panama
A pronounced north/south gradient in rainfall change during the dry season (January to April)
Wet season becoming drier
ECHAM4 – A2
HADCM3 – A2
ECHAM4 – B2
HADCM3 – B2
Annual mean changes in rainfall (%) for

7. Sea Level Rise Erosion Coastal flooding Inundation Saltwater intrusion
Mangroves
Tourist destinations
Human settlements
Water supply
Agriculture
Aquaculture
Fisheries

8. Water Security:
Salt water intrusion
Less rainfall
More evaporation

9. Vulnerability Studies on Agriculture in Belize
DSSAT
Beans, corn and rice
2°C rise in temp, ±20% change in precipitation
Result: % decline in yield for beans
Result: % decline in yield for rice
Result: 22 – 17% decline in yield for corn
PRECIS, DSSAT4 and Cropwat
Sugarcane and Citrus
2028 & 2050
1 & 2.5°C rise in temp
± 12 & 20% change in precipitation
Result: 12-17% decline in yields for sugarcane
Result: 3 – 5% decline in yields for citrus

10. Forests Threatened Higher Temperatures Lower Humidity
More Forest Fires
More Pests and Diseases
Belize:
High temperatures & low humidity
Pine bark beetle infestation
75% of nation’s pine forest destroyed
Poor forest management
Climate change
Impacts on timber industry and biodiversity
Contributed to emissions of GHGs
Increased erosion – poor water quality (rivers and sea)

11. Impacts of One Metre Sea level Rise for CARICOM
Over 2,700 km2 land area lost (10% of The Bahamas) valued at over US$70 billion
Over 100,000 people displaced (8% of population of Suriname, 5% of population of The Bahamas, 3% of population of Belize)
Cost to rebuild basic housing, roads and services (water, electricity) for displaced population approximately US $1.8 billion
Annual GDP losses of US $1.2 billion (over 6% in Suriname, 5% in The Bahamas, 3% in Guyana and Belize)
At least 16 multi-million dollar tourism resorts lost, with a replacement cost of over US $1.6 billion and the livelihoods of thousands of employees and communities affected
Over 1% agricultural land lost, with implications for food supply and rural livelihoods (4% in Suriname, 3% in The Bahamas, 2% in Jamaica)
Transportation networks severely disrupted
Loss of 10% of CARICOM island airports at a cost of over US $715 million
Lands surrounding 14 ports inundated (out of 50) at a cost of over US $320 million
Reconstruction cost of lost roads exceeds US $178 million (6% of road network in Guyana, 4% in Suriname, 2% in The Bahamas)
Source: Simpson, et. al., (2009) An Overview of Modelling Climate Change Impacts in the Caribbean Region with contribution from the Pacific Islands, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Barbados, West Indies

12. Impacts of One Metre Sea Level Rise for CARICOM
Total Economic Impact:
GDP loss = > US $1.2 billion per year (cumulatively US $30 billion if 1m SLR occurs in 2075)
Permanently lost land value = US $70 billion
Reconstruction / relocation costs = $4.64 billion
Source: Simpson, et. al., (2009) An Overview of Modelling Climate Change Impacts in the Caribbean Region with contribution from the Pacific Islands, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Barbados, West Indies

13. CARICOM Response Operational since January 2004 Located in
Endorsed by the CARICOM Heads of Government in July 2002
An intergovernmental specialized agency of CARICOM with an independent management that is guided by
The CARICOM Council of Trade and Economic Development (COTED) on policy matters.
A board of directors with responsibility for strategic planning.
A technical secretariat headed by an Executive Director with responsibility for tactical planning.
The Centre is mandated to coordinate the regional response to climate change and its efforts to manage and adapt to its projected impacts.
The Centre possesses full juridical personality.
Financially independent
Operational since
January 2004
Located in
Belmopan, Belize

14. The Regional Framework for Achieving Development Resilient to Climate Change
“Establishes and guides the Caribbean’s direction for the continued building of resilience to the impacts of global climate change by CARICOM States”.
Articulates the strategic direction for the region’s response to climate change risks.
Approved by the CARICOM Heads of Government at their meeting in Georgetown, Guyana in July 2009

15. The Five Strategic Elements of the Regional Framework
Mainstreaming Climate Change into the SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AGENDA and work programmes of public and private institutions in all Caribbean Community countries at all levels
Promoting systems and actions to REDUCE THE VULNERABILITY of Caribbean Community countries to global Climate Change wherever possible
Promoting measures to DERIVE BENEFIT FROM THE PRUDENT MANAGEMENT of forests, wetlands, and the natural environment, in general, and to protect that natural environment
Promoting actions and arrangements to REDUCE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, including those aimed at energy-use efficiency by increasingly resorting to low-emission renewable energy sources
Promote implementation of SPECIFIC ADAPTATION MEASURES to address key vulnerabilities in the Region.

16. The Implementation Plan
The Implementation Plan (IP) for the Regional Framework, defines the regional strategy for coping with Climate Change over the period
Approved by the 23rd Inter-Sessional Meeting of CARICOM Heads held in Suriname 8-9 March, 2012.

17. Sectors Identified in the Regional Framework
Water
Coastal and marine
Energy
Forest
Agriculture and food security
Health
Tourism

18. Actions Identified IP Strategic Element 2, Goal 1
Assess, quantify and map surface and ground water resources in CARICOM States ( ) – In collaboration with GWP Caribbean
Undertake vulnerability and capacity assessment of the impacts of climate change on water ( ) - In collaboration with GWP Caribbean
Assess, quantify and evaluate water demand and consumption patterns ( ) - In collaboration with GWP Caribbean

19. IP Strategic Element 2, Goal 1 (continued)
Prepare water sector adaptation strategies for all CARICOM countries by 2017 – CIMH & CEHI
Implement water sector adaptation strategies for all CARICOM countries ( ) – In collaboration with GWP Caribbean
Develop climate resilient IWRM strategies in all CARICOM countries ( ) - In collaboration with GWP Caribbean
Establish water resources management agencies where necessary and provide additional support where agencies exist ( ) – In collaboration with GWP Caribbean

20. IP Strategic Element 2, Goal 1 (continued)
Install water distribution infrastructure in selected countries ( )
Antigua, Dominica, Jamaica and St. Kitts
Strengthen the resilience of water infrastructure to extreme events/natural hazards ( )
Antigua, Belize, Dominica, Jamaica, St. Kitts

21. Water Related Projects Implemented
MACC
Regional climate change policy
Climate Modeling
Vulnerability assessment of ground water in Jamaica
Vulnerability assessment of surface water in Belize
Development of Belize national water policy and National Integrated Water Act (NIWA)
SPACC
Rainwater harvesting and recycling Saint Lucia Coconut Bay Hotel and Resort
Installation of salt water reverse osmosis system in Bequia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Installation of irrigation system in Milton, Dominica
UNESCO Coastal Aquifers Project
Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago

22. THE PROBLEM Rainfall projected to decrease in the Caribbean
26-53% decrease in precipitation by 2050
More intense extreme events (storms and droughts)
Hurricane Tomas in Saint Lucia in 2010 produced 25” of rainfall in some areas in 24 hours!
worst drought in Saint Lucia in 40 years!

23. Coconut Bay Resort and Spa
Began operation in 2005
All inclusive resort
3 pool-water park
254 rooms
Four floors, four buildings

24. Water Usage by Coconut Bay Resort and Spa
The property uses, on average, 2.1 million gallons (9,534,000 litres) per month, or 5% of the total production for the Vieux-Fort area
Coconut Bay operates a 3-pool water park, which uses substantial quantities of water-225,000 US Gallons
2nd highest consumer of water in Vieux-Fort. It uses the water equivalent of 1,726 persons per day (population of 14,561 persons), or approximately 12% of the Vieux-Fort population

25. Project Components
Rainwater harvesting system for toilet flushing and pool topping.
Rainwater used for toilet flushing will be treated in sewage treatment system and recycled for landscaping-two-prong conservation of potable supply
Expected reduction in water purchased for toilet-flushing and replenishment of swimming pools by approximately 3,000,000 litres annually
Sewage treatment, recycling and irrigation -for landscaping
This component will reduce the amount of water purchased for maintenance of the grounds by approximately 21,000,000 litres annually

26. THE PROJECT Cost (works) EC$773 846.56
Capacity of wastewater storage tank L ( Imp gal)
Capacity of north rain water storage tank L (3 962 Imp gal)
Capacity of south rain water tank L (5 944 Imp gal)

27. THE AGREEMENT
MOU between the CCCCC, the Government of Saint Lucia and Coconut Bay indicating roles and responsibilities of each party
Full approval of project by the Development Control Authority in 2009
Signed Financial Agreement between the CCCCC and Coconut Bay
Co financing 75:25
Budget of US$325,000

28. CCCCC Financial Analysis
Operating costs increased – electricity to run pumps
Environmental benefits
the avoided loss in revenue from tourist reef related activities
the avoided loss in revenue from reduced fishes landed
the avoided loss in beach and sea recreational activities
the avoided property damage
Social benefits
Reduced demand on municipal water supply
Health
Net present cumulative economical, social and environmental benefits must range from:
@ 5% discount factor US$1.5 million to US$3.3 million
@10% discount factor US$1.1 million to US$2.4 million
@15% Discount factor US$0.9 million to US$1.9 million

29. Economist’s Conclusion
From a financial perspective, CBBRAS must seek to minimize the cost associated with this system as the resort will be responsible for financing the cost associated with operating these systems.
However, CBBRAS might see it differently as some of the cost included in our analysis, such as labour cost, which based on the cost scenarios range from 12% to 33% of annual total cost, can be looked at business as usual, as well as, there might be existing economies of scale and cost saving measures that our analysis did not capture.

30. WHY INVEST?
Enhanced resilience of resort during potable water shortages
Cost savings for Coconut Bay Beach Resort and Spa!
Recognition for exemplary work
Initiative can be a good marketing tool

31. New Activities Onstream
Install 60 hydrometeorological stations in CARIFORUM States (GCCA project)
Replicate the Dominica, Saint Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines pilots projects across the Caribbean (GCCA project)
Petite Martinique and Carriacou, Grenada

32. Website listed on Top 101 Sites for climate change!
Please visit our website for further information!
Carlos Fuller
International and Regional Liaison Officer
Website listed on Top 101 Sites for climate change!