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The Future The Election of 2012
Clearly Stated Learning Objectives Assess the upcoming 2012 Presidential Elections.
EVENTS IN PAKISTAN The Recent News
The Bin-Laden effect Not as big as you might think (this isn’t 2004) Terrorism was a minor issue in 2008 and not a factor in 2010 No Republican hopefuls are running on “foreign policy”
Foreign Policy Bumps are Fleeting
Like Father, Like Son
The Economy Will be the big event in 2012, this event will be too far removed on Election Day
BETTING ON OBAMA The odds in 2012
Incumbency The Last incumbents who lost were – 1992 – 1980 – 1976 He is facing no primary challenger
Campaign Finance $1,000,000,000 Citizens United Money as well This alone discourages most challengers
The Electoral College
Popular on the Left Strong Support Among Democrats Very popular among key constituencies Policies are popular, and he is personally popular
Popularity on the Happy Side of 50%
Signs of Economic Growth Unemployment peaked in October 2009 (10.1%) Increase in consumer confidence
THE 2012 ELECTION Four Scenarios
Going In to 2012 Both Parties are optimistic Unknowns – The Economy – The Republican Nominee – Seats in the House and Senate
Scenario 1: The Status Quo Little Change in either the House or Senate A “personal victory” for Obama (e.g. 1984) Good odds of this happening
Scenario 2: An Emerging Democratic Majority Coincides with an Obama victory The Democrats take back the House, expand lead in the Senate A return to the Obama Coalition.
Scenario 3: A Republican Congress GOP keeps the House The GOP Surges in the Senate This leads to full-scale battle between the President and Congress
Scenario 4: A Republican Sweep The GOP maintains the House Gains 4 in the Senate Wins the Presidency Very Unlikely
2012 A Presidential Election The Republicans
Who Might Run against Obama? Candidates need to decide if this is their window Who runs depends on what happens in the next 6 months
Old Foes from 2008
Crazies and Long shots
Turning back to the Clock to 1994
RUNNING THE NUMBERS The Electoral College Still Favors the Democrats
A Republican Win: Step 1
A Republican Win Step 2
A Republican Win Step 3
A Republican Win Step 4
This will be very difficult to achieve!
Voting 11/9/2011. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – discuss and critically.
Elections and Voting.
What Happened The Election of Clearly Stated Learning Objectives Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral.
Election Vocabulary. Absentee voting a way for citizens to vote by mail when they can’t get to their polling place Absentee voters include people.
Elections and Voting. Bell Ringer Answer the Following Questions: 1. What is the difference between Major Parties and Minor Parties? 2. What are the similarities.
The Election Process Pathway to the Presidency Nomination (primary season) and election (general election); two separate steps, two strategies.
Electoral College The President is actually elected by the Electoral College, per the Constitution Number of electors from each state is based on how many.
Setting the Stage. Office Hours When – Today – Wednesday 10-2 Doyle 226B.
Chapter 10.2 Election Campaigns.
Congress II 3/19/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.
Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and.
SSCG8b: The Student will describe the nomination and election process.
Using the 2010 Midterm Elections to Teach Across the Curriculum Presenter Gary Copeland University of Oklahoma Presenter Gary Copeland University of Oklahoma.
WIN THE WHITE HOUSE HIGH SCHOOL EDITION. CREATE YOUR CANDIDATE NAME AND APPEARANCE HOME STATE POLITICAL PARTY KEY ISSUE YOU ARE RUNNING ON.
CHAPTER 8 Elections & Campaigns. Running for Federal Office Over 90% re-election rate in the House and Senate. Over 90% re-election rate in the House.
Congressional Results Opportunities to discuss course content Thursday 10-2 Friday
From Change to Change: Obama and the Tea Party in 2010 Presented by Terry Nelson November 30, 2010 International Democrat Union.
Starter What are political parties?. Political Parties.
The President I 2/9/2012. Clearly Stated Learning Objectives Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – understand and interpret the.
U.S. Elections in 2014 Theda Skocpol Harvard University.
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