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The Future The Election of 2012
Clearly Stated Learning Objectives Assess the upcoming 2012 Presidential Elections.
EVENTS IN PAKISTAN The Recent News
The Bin-Laden effect Not as big as you might think (this isn’t 2004) Terrorism was a minor issue in 2008 and not a factor in 2010 No Republican hopefuls are running on “foreign policy”
Foreign Policy Bumps are Fleeting
Like Father, Like Son
The Economy Will be the big event in 2012, this event will be too far removed on Election Day
BETTING ON OBAMA The odds in 2012
Incumbency The Last incumbents who lost were – 1992 – 1980 – 1976 He is facing no primary challenger
Campaign Finance $1,000,000,000 Citizens United Money as well This alone discourages most challengers
The Electoral College
Popular on the Left Strong Support Among Democrats Very popular among key constituencies Policies are popular, and he is personally popular
Popularity on the Happy Side of 50%
Signs of Economic Growth Unemployment peaked in October 2009 (10.1%) Increase in consumer confidence
THE 2012 ELECTION Four Scenarios
Going In to 2012 Both Parties are optimistic Unknowns – The Economy – The Republican Nominee – Seats in the House and Senate
Scenario 1: The Status Quo Little Change in either the House or Senate A “personal victory” for Obama (e.g. 1984) Good odds of this happening
Scenario 2: An Emerging Democratic Majority Coincides with an Obama victory The Democrats take back the House, expand lead in the Senate A return to the Obama Coalition.
Scenario 3: A Republican Congress GOP keeps the House The GOP Surges in the Senate This leads to full-scale battle between the President and Congress
Scenario 4: A Republican Sweep The GOP maintains the House Gains 4 in the Senate Wins the Presidency Very Unlikely
2012 A Presidential Election The Republicans
Who Might Run against Obama? Candidates need to decide if this is their window Who runs depends on what happens in the next 6 months
Old Foes from 2008
Crazies and Long shots
Turning back to the Clock to 1994
RUNNING THE NUMBERS The Electoral College Still Favors the Democrats
A Republican Win: Step 1
A Republican Win Step 2
A Republican Win Step 3
A Republican Win Step 4
This will be very difficult to achieve!
EQ: What is the electoral process and what is its value to the Republic.
Gevenny Fernandez. The Republicans controlled the White House In 1930, the Democrats took over the House of Representatives with a majority of 51%, for.
19.3 Campaigning for Office. Planning and Running a Campaign -Campaign Organization Campaign Manager – Manages staff work – Includes fundraisers, speechwriters,
Chapter 10 Elections and Voting Behavior. How American elections work Three kinds of elections: Primary elections: voters select party nominees General.
Section 8 by: Colleen, Kat, Linda & Jared Monroes terms were called the era of good feelings The War of 1812 was fading Federalists party was fading.
Elections and Campaigns Chapter 8. Presidential vs. Congressional Campaigns Presidential races are more competitive than HR races 90%+ incumbents are.
How Do You VOTE! Voting Terms To Know… Absentee voting- Not going to the poll on election day Australian Ballot- Govt. Ballot, created in secret and.
REFLECTING THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE House of Representatives:
Chapter 17 Elections and Voting Section 1 Election Campaigns.
Section 1 Development of Parties. A political party is a group of people with broad common interests who organize to win elections and to control and.
Chapter 13 Section 4 pp Presidential Nominations.
THE POLITICAL SPECTRUM WHERE DO YOU STAND?. WHAT IS A POLITICAL CONTINUUM? A range of political values that help us determine where we might fit politically.
Elections Explained… An election is when a country decides who will be in charge. Scotland is a democracy – this means that everyone has the right to have.
The Political Spectrum And now for your enjoyment….
Do Now: Complete Political Spectrum worksheet using notes from last class. K-W-L on Voting Notes on Voting/Citizenship Group Activity: How to increase.
Chapter 10, Section 1 Who Can Vote?. Qualifying to Vote Voting is a major responsibility. Those who choose not to participate. – Fail to carry out a civic.
Chapter 8 The Presidency Section 1 President and Vice President.
7 Institutions: Meat and Potatoes. Institutions The U.S. presidency provides a perfect example of how we have built up an ideal and impossible image of.
Running the JEOPARDY! Slide Show On the game board with the categories on top, click on the desired dollar value. –Move the mouse to the bottom of the.
Chapter Nineteen: Political Parties in Texas 1. Questions to Consider Why was Texas politics dominated by the Democratic Party until the early 1990s?
| | November 6, 2008 Health Care and The 2008 Elections Celinda Lake.
Political Parties and Ideology What is a Party? Political Party – a group of people who seek to control government through the winning of elections and.
The Struggle For Democracy Chapter 11: Congress.
Profile: Barack Obama Age: 49 (Aug 4, 1961) Current Occupation: President of the United States Previous Occupation: Junior Senator for Illinois Years.
POLITICAL PARTIES Ch in a nutshell: POLITICAL PARTIES A Political Party is a group of people who try to control government by winning elections.
Road to the White House A Homemade PowerPoint Game By Robert DeRosa The University of Georgia Play the game Game Directions Story Credits Copyright Notice.
The Transformation of America Latinos as drivers of America’s future.
The Executive Branch The Presidency. 44 th President Barack Obama is our 44 th President and serves in many roles. Barack Obama is our 44 th President.
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