1. Hot Topics From Washington, DC What’s Past May Not Be Prologue! Scott E. Miller PHEAA smiller1@pheaa.org 10/11/10

3. 2010 in Focus A Crucial And Volatile Political Year A Crucial And Volatile Political Year Potential To Be “Historic” Potential To Be “Historic” Critical for President Obama’s Future Agenda Critical for President Obama’s Future Agenda Political Dynamic Has Changed Dramatically from 2008 Political Dynamic Has Changed Dramatically from 2008 Implications Abound for Student Aid and Higher Education Implications Abound for Student Aid and Higher Education

4. Setting the Stage February 10, 2007: Sen. Barack Obama Declares for the Presidency February 10, 2007: Sen. Barack Obama Declares for the Presidency January 3, 2008: Sen. Obama Wins Iowa Caucuses January 3, 2008: Sen. Obama Wins Iowa Caucuses June 7, 2008: Senator Hilary Clinton Concedes Democratic Nomination June 7, 2008: Senator Hilary Clinton Concedes Democratic Nomination November 2008: Sen. Obama Becomes President-Elect with 365 Electoral Votes November 2008: Sen. Obama Becomes President-Elect with 365 Electoral Votes Democrats extend House majority by 21 seatsDemocrats extend House majority by 21 seats Democrats reach magic 60 Senate votes (in June when MN is finally decided)Democrats reach magic 60 Senate votes (in June when MN is finally decided) Reduced to 59 votes with Scott Brown’s (R, MA) election in January Reduced to 59 votes with Scott Brown’s (R, MA) election in January

5. Change! 1955-1994 – 40-Year Democratic Control of House of Representatives 1955-1994 – 40-Year Democratic Control of House of Representatives 1994-2006 – 12-Year Republican Control of House 1994-2006 – 12-Year Republican Control of House 2006-2010 – 4-Year Democratic Control of House 2006-2010 – 4-Year Democratic Control of House 2011???? 2011???? Have Voters Lost Their Fear of Change? Have Voters Lost Their Fear of Change?

6. National Sentiment

7. Right Direction/Wrong Track 2008 Election Health Care Enacted Stimulus Bill Signed Summer of Town Halls

8. Health Care Reform

9. Looking Ahead to November Key Trends Point to Change Key Trends Point to Change Will it be a “tidal wave”?Will it be a “tidal wave”? Anger Could Extend to Both Parties Anger Could Extend to Both Parties Analysts Coalescing Around Republican Control of House Analysts Coalescing Around Republican Control of House Republicans swamp Democrats in primary voter turnoutRepublicans swamp Democrats in primary voter turnout Republican voters more “motivated”Republican voters more “motivated” Democrats Likely/Possibly/Should Keep Control of Senate, Maybe! Democrats Likely/Possibly/Should Keep Control of Senate, Maybe! Key States: CA, WI, NV, WA, IL, WVKey States: CA, WI, NV, WA, IL, WV Is PA in play?Is PA in play? 2012 could be real test of Democratic control2012 could be real test of Democratic control Will the Wave Wash Over State & Local Races? Will the Wave Wash Over State & Local Races? Some Incumbents “Won’t See it Coming…” Some Incumbents “Won’t See it Coming…”

10. Comparisons to 1994 Election Day 1994 22% Election Day 2008 23% Post-9/11 High Water Mark (62%)

11. Congress is Even Less Popular Today

12. Independents Switching Sides? Stimulus Bill Signed Health Care Bill Signed Summer of Town Halls

13. The Key Indicator? PA: Blue; National: Grey Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (8/2010) PA & National Unemployment Rates

14. Meaningful? Gallup Poll – 10/5/10: Gallup Poll – 10/5/10: 3% Republican lead among registered voters3% Republican lead among registered voters 13% Republican lead among “likely voters”13% Republican lead among “likely voters” View of the Economy Generic Ballot

15. What About the Tea Party? Is it a Real Political Force? Is it a Real Political Force? 43% view favorably*43% view favorably* 35% unfavorably*35% unfavorably* 8% never heard of (means 92% have)*8% never heard of (means 92% have)* Is it a Bunch of “Wackos”? Is it a Bunch of “Wackos”? Founding may have been in Bucks County, PAFounding may have been in Bucks County, PA Anger about stimulus bill & bailoutsAnger about stimulus bill & bailouts Ask Lisa Murkowski, Mike Castle, Bob BennettAsk Lisa Murkowski, Mike Castle, Bob Bennett Motivated Voters Motivated Voters Dominated low-turnout primariesDominated low-turnout primaries Likely to return to polls in NovemberLikely to return to polls in November Elected Members Will Be Part of Republican Caucus Elected Members Will Be Part of Republican Caucus Echoes of Late 1970’s *Politico/GWU Battleground Poll; September 19-22-2010 Echoes of Late 1970’s *Politico/GWU Battleground Poll; September 19-22-2010

16. Views of Tea Partiers Recent Surveys Show Tea Party Members are “Social Conservatives” Recent Surveys Show Tea Party Members are “Social Conservatives” “Values” not driving the movement“Values” not driving the movement Different than Christian Coalition of 1970’s & 80’sDifferent than Christian Coalition of 1970’s & 80’s

17. Implications for Higher Education Legislative Gridlock Could Preclude Major Legislation Legislative Gridlock Could Preclude Major Legislation Fewer moderates in both partiesFewer moderates in both parties Split control of CongressSplit control of Congress 2012 campaign starts on November 3 rd2012 campaign starts on November 3 rd Focus on Deficit Reduction Regardless of Outcome Focus on Deficit Reduction Regardless of Outcome Entitlement commissionEntitlement commission Squeeze on domestic fundsSqueeze on domestic funds Tough times for student aid fundingTough times for student aid funding Across-the-board cuts??Across-the-board cuts??

18. Pennsylvania Politics Pennsylvania Races Seem More Locally Focused Pennsylvania Races Seem More Locally Focused Republicans Leading State-Wide Races Republicans Leading State-Wide Races Several Congressional Seats in Play Several Congressional Seats in Play Kanjorski (11 th CD), Dahlkemper (3 rd CD), P. Murphy (8 th CD), Critz (12 th CD), Carney (10 th CD), 7 th CDKanjorski (11 th CD), Dahlkemper (3 rd CD), P. Murphy (8 th CD), Critz (12 th CD), Carney (10 th CD), 7 th CD What do they all have in common?What do they all have in common? General Assembly Could Tip Republican General Assembly Could Tip Republican Implications for 2011 RedistrictingImplications for 2011 Redistricting

19. PA Senate Race

20. PA Governor’s Race

21. It’s Tough to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future* *

22. What To Watch For on November 2nd Senate Seats: PA, FL, DE, IN, WV, IL, WI, CO, NV, CA Senate Seats: PA, FL, DE, IN, WV, IL, WI, CO, NV, CA Republican’s need to gain 10 seats for majorityRepublican’s need to gain 10 seats for majority Governors Races: MA, FL, OH, IL, CA Governors Races: MA, FL, OH, IL, CA House Races: Magic Number is 218 House Races: Magic Number is 218 Republicans need to gain 39 seats for majorityRepublicans need to gain 39 seats for majority How many from PA? How many from PA?

23. Hot Topics From Washington, DC What’s Past May Not Be Prologue! Scott E. Miller PHEAA smiller1@pheaa.org 10/11/10