1. Tipping Points Karine Nahon Associate Professor karineb@uw.edu http://eKarine.org http://twitter.com/karineb August 2011 for the Israeli Internet

2. Networks (and the Internet) brought us Egalitarian and Empowering platforms where users play a critical role

3. Users creating viral information

4. (SocialFlow, 2011) Osama Bin Laden death being twitted before the formal announcement by the white house

5. Create, Share and Curate Knowledge

6. End-Users Developers

7. Organize and Change

8. However another phenomenon is accompanied

9. Power Law

10. Search Engines Market Share Search Engines Oct-02Jan-03May-04Dec-08Dec-10Aug-11 Google 20.13336.862.984.682.8 Yahoo19.62426.616.86.76.6 MSN19.31914.59.8 Bing- 3.33.8 AOL13.51212.84.1 Baidu- 3.44.8 72.58890.793.698 Sources: Alexa, Netmarketshare

13. Worldwide smartphone operating system (OS) market share in 2009- 2015, according to Gartner OS 2009 market share 2010 market share 2011 market share Android3.9%22.7%38.5% BlackBerry19.9%16.0%13.4% iOS14.4%15.7%19.4% Symbian46.9%37.6%19.2% Windows Phone/Mobil e 8.7%4.2%5.6% Others6.1%3.8%3.9% Total smartphones sold 172 million 297 million 468 million Source: Gartner (April 2011)Gartner (April 2011) 90.5% Source: NetMarketShare Browsers 95.7%

14. http://retroV.org ( Nahon, Hemsley, Walker and Hussain, 2011)

15. Why Power-law? Human behavior and attention Following and joining the herd

16. Why Extreme Power-law? No Physical limits The ability to assemble in “small herds”

17. The Next Tipping Points? Mechanisms to equalize the power- law While: - balancing overflow of information - integrating “clouds”

18. The Next Tipping Points? The triangular relationship 18 ITBehavior Norms and Values

19. The Next Tipping Points? Developing adequate ways to analyze large-scale data – It is tempting because: it is easier, faster and helps revealing patterns of behavior – However, it is dangerous to use without extra- cautious because of misleading signals and overwhelming signals.

20. Misleading and Overwhelming Signals Is it the “real behavior”? What does it mean? If it is, can we learn anything about the factors that cause behavior We struggle with horizontal patterns Too many signals may mislead We see both the forest and the trees but still do not necessarily understand the real eco-system between the parts

21. Tipping Points Karine Nahon http://eKarine.org karineb@uw.edu http://eKarine.org http://twitter.com/karineb August 2011 for the Israeli Internet